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SAXON WARRIOR 14/1
As you see opening post in Coral Eclipse thread i said i got him for this race and after 2 races at 1m4 now he drop in trip and this 1m2 be race for him
Still think SW should be dropped back to a mile – he wasn’t going to win the Irish Derby 2F out and whilst they will need a 10F win on his cv for breeding purposes, that 2000g win was the most impressive thing he has done and that mile division overall still looks up for grabs.
I backed Cracksman for this in anticipation of the rain, which suddenly looks unlikely to materialise.
If he gets good ground and he runs, I think he wins. But in the likely event he skips this, Poets Word is clearly the form standard. My concern would be how hard a race he had in the King George and would be leaving him alone at 2/1.
At the moment, ROARING LION would be my pick. He loves the course, has been kept quite fresh for this and just seems better than the rest of the field (with the exception of PW and Cracksman).
Without Parole is interesting, as on his breeding you could easily see him getting this trip. He’s unexposed over this far, but that was a disappointing effort LTO and I think he might not quite be up to winning a race as hot as this.
Why do you think rain is unlikely, Degaussed. My reading of the weather forcast is there’s probably more rain to come. I’ve been on Poet’s Word for a while now, but – taking a bit of chance – have just backed Cracksman @ 7/1. Suspect only needs genuine Good ground to run.
Value Is EverythingI wonder which weather forecast service is most accurate for predicting future weather (or 4 days for this) in the uk – maybe degaussed is using a different service provider?
i echo what degaussed is saying rgarding weather, apart from some light rain on sunday morning its dry up until the off, bbc app has always been accurate enough for me..
However i disagree regarding Cracksman, he wont win another race
BBC is what I use too.
71% chance of something a bit more than light rain at 6 am Sunday for a short time, then light rain likely until at least 10 am, then at least 41% chance of continuing until 2 pm. Decreasing to just 18% by 5 pm.My guess is Soft by Sunday afternoon before drying out to Good-Soft or Good by Wednesday.
And although no rain forecast for tonight at York, there is quite a bit forecast for other areas in Yorkshire, so could yet hit York.
Although not a certain runner I believe it’s now probable and if declared I think he’ll go off around 7/2. So 7/1 is imo worth taking a chance.
Value Is EverythingHowever i disagree regarding Cracksman, he wont win another race
Oh you’re probably right, ham. However, I think the odds of 7/1 offered more than makes up for that probability.
It’s easy to be persuaded the form of Cracksman’s Prince Of Wales second was poor, just because of expectation, 2/5 SP. But 2 1/4 lengths second to Poet’s Word looks better now than it did then. Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior will need to improve to better the performance Cracksman put up that day… And that was on pretty firm ground. I remain to be convinced it was all down to ground (would like them to try headgear too)! But his best performances remain with give underfoot. So is imo a fair sized possibility going had at least something to do with it. Therefore although probably won’t get back to Champion Stakes form, could take a step towards it… And if so will be difficult to beat for at least all bar Poet’s Word; which makes 7/1 look attractive to me.
Value Is EverythingDefinitely is over priced on his “best” form i just have my reservations if he is capable of showing that now and he will need to with PW’s improvement, i hope he does come back to his best….
Based on his run here in the Dante, it’s Roaring Lion for me at 5/2.
Also had a play on the 13/2 enhanced double Poets Word and Battaash. Boosted with Skybet the other day from 7/2.
Looks like GD / Firm all round this week.
Just the 8 to post, no Cracksman
Benbatl
poets word
thundering blue
thunder snow
Latrobe
roaring lion
saxon warrior
Without paroledegaussed couldn’t you have posted that earlier? took me an hour to type my bit. lol
Looks a good race and just for an interest have had fifty bob each way on Thunder Snow at 16/1.
Have backed Poet’s at 5/2 and 9/4, the horse is in the form of it’s life. I think it’s one of those races where it’s a case of keeping it simple and backing the best horse in the race.
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