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I priced this up today – Ladbrokes and Coral are now up with the market.
To be honest, I’m just putting this thread here to cue in Venture To Cognac. This sounds like his sort of race!
Take it away VTC…
lol Soldier, you know me well. I’m halfway through writing it, and will be up this time tomorrow.
Think you’ve called Arkwrisht spot on as joint favourite, and I see you’ve got Riviera Sun more prominent than might be expected, that could be a wise move. I like your prices for Katnap, Shanpallas, and Dromnea.
We stepped up the plate as sponsors to go 8/1 the field but, yes, I think Arkwrisht will be backed and shorten up in the next few days. You’d probably back him to turn it around with Potters Point.
Haha yes I argued the case for Riviera Sun. I was really impressed with how he made up the ground last time. The other one I like is On Fiddlers Green – hoping Paddy Power or 365 top him up when they price up the race so I can get a bit of 12/1. Henry de Bromhead is flying at the start of the season.
Very much like The Kerry National, this looks a hard race to fathom at the initial entry stage. I’d love it to be a bit more straightforward, as my record in it is appalling, with Double Seven my only ever winner, and since then, I don’t think I’ve had one placed.
Like so many of these prizes, the first port of call is to check out the Elliot contenders, but on this occasion, I’ll give first word to Joseph O’Brien who looks as if he could play a serious role here. I really like the idea of Katnap for The Grand National, and although he started out over 2 and a half miles on Saturday, and has done the majority of his racing under 3 miles, I can’t get the way he was full of running at the end of The Topham, and I really think he needs a trip. He was entitled to need the run on Saturday, and although he weakened out of it at the end, I seen enough to retain some enthusiasm. If I’m right about Aintree, he has to start winning this type of race soon, as he’s miles off of getting in as things stand. He’s 16’s just now, and I think that seems fair. He doesn’t look particularly ground dependent, so he should be there on the day, and I’d expect him to strip fitter for this. His stablemate Arkwrisht is as low as 8’s, and off the back of The Kerry National a fortnight ago, that looks justified. He’s been a model of consistency lately anyway, and his run at Listowel kept that going. He went down narrowly to fellow Giggs runner, Potters Point, and he had no luck at all, with the jockey losing an iron, which obviously didn’t help matters. Considering that mishap, it was a big run, and I don’t think a 7lb hit should stop him getting involved here. Obvious claims, and I could see him reversing placings with Potters. O’Brien also has the JP pair, Slowmotion & King Leon entered. I just can’t see King Leon figuring here, it would be a huge step up for him, and even Slowmotion, who I’ve enthused about before, has questions to answer. Her run at Listowel was a shade disappointing, and it’s easy to forget she’s only 5. Not sure why she wasn’t closer that day, and I stand by my opinion that, in time, she’ll be very good, but they may just want to be careful with her at that age. No doubting the ability, but I’ll pass her over this time around.
Potters Point, as mentioned, could be back for more here, and part of the usual strong entry from Gigginstown. There was loads to like about the way he did it at Listowel a fortnight ago, travelling well the whole way, and finding plenty at the end. Up 9 lb’s for that, but it’s entirely justified, he was well clear of a lot of “old hands”, and he’s clearly a horse going the right way. He looks hard to desert here, but I might just take the chance that they’ll let his mark slip a bit before going back for more, later in the season. It’s certainly a risky approach that, and I’m reluctant to desert him after last time, and if I’m wrong, it’ll hardly be the biggest shock, as he looks a properly progressive horse. If this is the plan, that 9lb’s shouldn’t stop him. I’ve said a lot of kind words about Lord Scoundrel & Devil’s Bride, but the excuses are starting to wear a bit thin. Lord Scoundrel was very poor at Listowel, and the 2 pounds he’s been dropped doesn’t look nearly enough, and although Devil’s Bride hasn’t been as bad as that, I did expect more from him last time. A couple of runs this year give him a chance, but I just get the feeling he’ll come up short again, and his last run wasn’t screaming “step up in trip”. Net D’Ecosse has been on the go all summer, and has done little wrong. He might have had easier chances than this though, and has the look of “bridesmaid” about him, not that I’d be ruling him out each way though. A Toi Phil is bound to be popular again here, and he’s always near the top of my list for these types of prizes. His runs in The Galway Plate & Kerry National suggest he should be a major player here, and despite not getting his head in front in either of those races, it seems unlikely that he’ll go the whole season without a big pot. I tend to think he’ll take a bigger prize than this though, and I’ll grudgingly pass him over at the 8’s here at this stage. If he’s 8’s on the day, that’ll surely be rock solid each way bet. Thunder and Roses, & Rogue Angel, both winners of The Irish National wouldn’t be the most obvious here, but I reckon both merit a second look. Rogue Angel ran very well for a long way at Aintree, and though not sighted at Fairyhouse, it was very soon after The National. Coming down the weights nicely, and had a couple of other decent spins last year as well, though 20’s does seem about right just now. Of the pair, I would just prefer Thunder and Roses. A fine 4th to Our Duke in The Irish National, this was off the back of a pretty solid season. Rather lazily given an “UR” for his run in The Grand National, when it was quite obvious that it should have been a “brought down” (wee pet hate of mine that), and at 20-1, he has big each way possibilities. Alpha Des Obeaux was an extremely popular horse on here last winter, though the hard truth of the matter is that he has not transferred his hurdles form to fences. Yes, he does bleed, which is always a big concern, but overall, he has plenty of questions to answer. He did win twice last winter though, and although they weren’t the strongest of contests, there was plenty to like about the way he did it. He wasn’t disgraced at all at Fairyhouse in The Irish National, but he then ran no sort of race at all at Punchestown. Does he have a chance here then? Well, despite those (many) question marks, I’m going to say yes. This might be just the type of race where he can bounce back, and it’s often won by “classier” types than The Kerry National, and this guy certainly fits that bill. Impossible to rule out.
Last but not least of the Giggs contingent is my old pal, and last years winner, Tiger Roll. I love this horse to bits, and don’t know where to start. Quite simply, he routed the opposition in this last year, I can’t remember an easier winner of it, and he then went on to rout the opposition in The National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. He was part of a blanket set of entries for Giggs at Fairyhouse, so I’m more than happy to draw a line through that run. He’s tiny, and for that reason, I had my reservations about him for Aintree, but I had a change of heart at the tail end of last season, and he’s now very much my #1 at the moment for Grand National Glory. He can’t be doing that if he wins here, so on that basis, and that basis only, I will pass him over here. Nobody will cheer him home louder than me if he does win this though. Quite simply, he is a very very underrated horse, and if they’ve got him ready for this, and it is indeed the plan, then he’ll be extremely difficult to beat off of 151. Easily the best horse in the race in my opinion.
I think only Shaneshill could possibly challenge Tiger Roll in the “class” department. He’s one of 4 entered by WPM, and no surprise to see him vying for favouritism. Ran a blinder in The Galway Plate, before blundering away his chances a few days later at the same track. I prefer to judge him on that Galway Plate run, as well as his 2nd to Blaklion in last years RSA, which I think is most accurate reflection of his ability. Big big player if he runs here, but he’s also in The PWC Champion Chase on Saturday, so not one to rush in on just now, especially at 8’s. Arbe De Vrie got the better of Shaneshill in that Attheraces Chase at Galway, and like Shaneshill, was coming off of the back of a decent run in The Plate. He was another who took in that Kerry National, and like Slowmotion, I was just a bit underwhelmed by him, and thought he’d have been closer. The ability is there though, and I still really like his second to Woodlands Opera at Punchestown, not to mention the fact that he still looks well treated, considering that win at Galway. Mullins also has New Kid In Town, and Total Recall in the shake up. New Kid In Town would have to be considered unlikely to make it, and doesn’t look good enough anyway. Total Recall on the other hand would be one that interests me. Caught my eye on more than one occasion in the past, and should benefit for the switch from the retired Sandra Hughes. He might just sneak in here, and not without a chance, but he’s one I may keep in mind for a big handicap later in the year.
Mouse Morris has won this on no fewer than six occasions, and not surprisingly has targetted it again. As well as Alpha Des Obeaux, Rogue Angel, and Thunder and Roses, he is also responsible for 2 horses I’ve had some joy with this summer in the shape of Baily Moon, and Dromnea. Baily Moon is a proper lump of a horse, and I owe him plenty for his win here in July. I was disappointed with him next time, and he looked to have been anchored by his big rise in the weights, but I could see him recovering some of his spark here, and though maybe weighted out of actually winning it, he could give some each way value at 25’s. I love the way Dromnea did it, in The Southampton Chase at Listowel, and he won far, far easier than the winning distance would suggest. I often complain about harsh rises in the weights, but this boy has been given a real chance, and he’s only been raised 7 lb’s. That’s very fair, and with course form in the bag, and seemingly all the better for an extended break, then provided it’s soft enough, then 14’s is very appealing.
On Fiddlers Green won as he liked at Roscommon in June, and he looked primed for a repeat at Galway in August, with conditions to suit, and a not unfair rise in the weights as well. He got trounced though, and that was a hard one to explain. I think the Roscommon run is where he’s really at, and I’d be happy to give him the benefit of the doubt after Galway. Not sure I’d have him favourite, but I’m a huge fan, and it’s clear that De Bromhead takes this race seriously, so Fiddlers has to be considered. De Bromhead is also responsible for the aforementiond Devils Bride, as well as the Brookhouse pair, Stellar Notion & Sadlers Risk, and also Riviera Sun. Stellar Notion is woefully out of form, and looks ripe for a breathing op, while although a previous winner of the race, Sadlers Risk may need to drop a few pounds, but should at least be competitive. The JP owned Riviera Sun may just be the one to challenge Fiddlers as the stable #1. He won well enough in that race where Fiddlers flopped. Only raised 6lbs for that win, and I just get the impression he’s been kept for this. At double the odds of his stablemate, he has to be given the nod, though does have the problem of actually getting in the line up, he’s currently #31.
Riviera is joined by plenty of others in the JP silks, including the O’Brien pair, King Leon & Slowmotion, and also Hash Brown, Auvergnat, Rock On Fruity, and Shanpallas. Hash Brown looks way short of this, but it’s harder to be negative about the others. Auvergnat is thought of more of a Cross Country horse, but he hasn’t fared too badly in the handicap sphere lately, winning at Killarney, before chasing On Fiddlers Green home at Roscommon. He ran a sound enough race behind Cause of Causes at Cheltenham, and though I’m not convinced he’ll head here, there’s no doubting his ability. The other pair really interest me a lot. Rock On Fruity won here nicely during the summer, and proved it was no fluke when winning again at Kilbeggan, with Net D’Ecosse, and subsequent winner, Some Drama, behind him. Ran nicely enough behind Landohopeandglory this week, and I’m sure this has been the plan all along. A lot higher in the weights now for his Summer Double, and he’s still on the verge of not making it, which is a shame. Shanpallas is a horse I’ve mentioned many times on here over the last 3 years. After writing him off for The 2014 Kerry National, he ran a big race, making the frame, and even though he was then bought by JP, I just couldn’t have him for that years renewal here. He of course won easy. I’ve followed him ever since, and no stranger to a punt on him. I’ve said before that I get the impression they weren’t sure what to do with him after that, and I’m amazed he didn’t become an Aintree horse. He’s had a few disappointments since then, but has also ran some very nice races as well, and he has offered plenty of encouragement this summer. I was happy enough with him in The Galway Plate, but more importantly, despite a “P” for his efforts at Listowel, I thought he travelled very very well for a long way in ground that was way more soft than ideal for him. Sensibly pulled up when his chance was gone, and that race shouldn’t have taken too hard a toll. Now, for the first time since his win in this, he’s finally lower than that mark, and provided conditions aren’t too soft, then he’s potentially the best value in the field at 25’s. Potentially a dry week next week, but it might make sense to hold off just now……….but I am tempted.
Raz De Maree had one of his better seasons last term, and he’s been given a chance by the handicapper, already a pound lower for chasing home Native River at Chepstow. I’m a bit surprised that he hasn’t taken this in before, but he does boast winning form at the course. He’s a likeable type, and no ground worries, but he is getting on to be fair, and I prefer one with less miles on the clock in this.
Bentelimar is proving to be a regular in these handicaps, and is never that far away. Certainly got involved in The Kerry National, but he just seems to come up short when it matters. If he was lowered 3 or 4 lb’s he’d be more appealing, but supporters will at least, surely, get a run for their money. Tulsa Jack is another who’s a regular in races like this, but he pulled up in this off of the same mark last year, and he might just find a few of them far too strong here.
Phil’s Magic has had a busy summer, and has rose through the weights nicely. A close second to Riviera Sun at Galway, and very much like the winner that day, he looks to have been kept for this. His run here in July puts him bang in the frame here, and although on the face of it, not that generously priced at 16’s, I can easily see him making the frame.
Ned Stark promised so much a few years back, but it never really happened for him, with a few injury setbacks. Now with Gordon Elliot, after leaving Alan King, he’s in the right hands, but very difficult be confident about, and readily passed over unless the market suggested otherwise. Cocktails At Dawn is another who’s moved to Elliot, having left Nicky Henderson, but he’s another one who’s hard to be enthusiastic about.
The rest might just struggle to get in.
I want to have a go, but very very tricky.
I think Arkwrisht is a worthy (joint) favourite with A Toi Phil, while if they let Tiger Roll loose, then he would romp it.
It’s another Giggs horse though, that I might just give the nod to. I think Alpha Des Obeaux has the perfect profile for this, and the 14’s looks fair, while his stablemate, Dromnea has been given every chance off 138. Finally, if the ground came up right for him, then Shanpallas at 25’s is smashing. I can’t leave Katnap without a mention, and I hope he justified my enthusiasm for Aintree.
Alpha Des Obeaux 14’s Win
Dromnea 14’s EW
Shanpallas 25’s EWwould be my early picks, but I haven’t parted with my cash just yet. I’ll probably have a go tomorrow on the Mouse pair, and will hold off with Shanpallas until the weather forecast tells me what to do.
GL
Good preview Venture
Arkwrisht to win at 8-1 + Tiger Roll each way at 20-1 for me just now.
Thanks Buckers
Good old Tiger Roll, a fine choice. If he’s going the graded route this season, then 20’s is the bet of the season. I’ll sit him out, as I’ve bet him for both Gold Cup & Grand National, so whatever he does will suit me just fine. Very best of luck with him.
I’ve been looking at this tonight but it’s a bit murky for me. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shaneshill is a NR again, bringing some horses further down that I’m interested in into the handicap. Also, the weather is pretty changeable, almost all the Irish tracks are soft or heavy at the moment and a few more dumps of rain would make you think the race should cut up a bit, and let in a lot of nice horses carrying featherweights through the muck.
But.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if Giggi keep in as many as they can, using some as filler to pack the race like they did in the Irish National, and keep out the likes of Mullins’ Total Recall who would like soft ground, and Riviera Sun who looked pretty good at Galway and hasn’t been hammered by the handicapper.
There are no monster prices jumping out at me and I might just sit tight…at least till my impatience overcomes my sulking about my Abolitionist Kerry National bet
I’m running out of accolades for your write-ups Bobby. I’ll go with “stonker” this
time. Great work againI’m going to hang off until the picture is a good bit clearer before I have a bet
in this. I’m not even going to be tempted by my old pal SLOWMOTION. I don’t
really understand that last run, I commented in the Kerry National thread that she was
never really put in the race, she was miles out the back for most of it and made a little
late ground. I’m confused what that was all about after a reasonable 3rd in her Galway
Plate 1st time out, as she is normally ultra consistent. Much as I think she will come
good, I can’t don blinkers and ignore such a poor run last time. I’ll probably leave her
alone (but can’t guarantee that I will).At his point I’d be maybe more interested in another of JP’s, SHANPALLAS who
would run of a nice weight if Shaneshill, who has decent claims himself, does turn up.
TULSA JACK is another who’s carried my cash a few times, and is decent on
his day. He pulled up in this last year, but he had 4 pretty tough races within the 2 months
before it, the last of which was just 2 weeks prior. Having had a lengthy break after that he
came back in March and ran a cracker, just going down a hd at Downpatrick. This time he’s had
just the 3 in the past couple of months, and a good months break from the last to this. I’d be
hopeful he would make a better effort this time around.I’ve bet nothing yet, and will keep an eye how things unfold on the run up to the race.
Cheers Grass, missed Ned Stark tomorrow as well.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on how he runs, and a good performance could change things for me.
A Toi Phil
Potters Point
Shaneshillall entered up this weekend.
Indeed. Had to tweak a few prices with the 9-6ish horses possibly jumping into the handicap proper if Shaneshill doesn’t run.
Yeah Soldier, race could have a very different look if Shaneshill doesn’t go next week, which there must be a chance of now.
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