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Joni's Poni's Season 5

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  • #1259462
    Jonibake
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    • Total Posts 4457

    £3,743.40

    A nice winner but we clearly benefited from the fav not running his race. I just wish Ginge had been my bookmaker – 16-1 Mark?!!!!

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1259486
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    I have read good reports of Glencadam Glory, a son of Nathaniel and trained by Johnny G, who runs in a Newmarket maiden tonight. He has been well supported this morning and is apparently quite decent.

    £80 win Glencadam Glory – 9-4 – 6.35 Newmarket loser

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1259489
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8437

    Joni any bets on races in America this week i like LONG ISLAND SOUND and MONDIALISTE in big race other bets in my thread this week to

    #1259491
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8437

    Forget to ask you as well mate any views on COLINIAL CLASSIC at Nottingham gone for her today at 5/2 i know you like following horses from this yard

    #1259499
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    Hi Darren – good to hear from you. No particular thoughts on the American stuff though you have to be impressed with the way Mondialiste ran last time. Colonial Classic should go well but Gosden stable is a bit hit and miss at the moment due to the virus going around Newmarket yards. They seem to be either winning or bombing out. Good luck with her though!

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1259573
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    Hi Darren – good to hear from you. No particular thoughts on the American stuff though you have to be impressed with the way Mondialiste ran last time. Colonial Classic should go well but Gosden stable is a bit hit and miss at the moment due to the virus going around Newmarket yards. They seem to be either winning or bombing out. Good luck with her though!

    Think Gosden has turned the corner Joni. :good:

    Since 26th July he’s had 28 runners and 10 winners (35.7% SR).

    In August alone 15 runners and 5 winners (33%), plus 3 seconds including one by a short head and one beaten 3/4 length, and one third beaten 1/4 length.

    My own trainer in form rating for Gosden is currently 8 out of 10. Anything from 7 is rated as “in form”.

    Value Is Everything
    #1259577
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 34704

    £3,743.40

    A nice winner but we clearly benefited from the fav not running his race. I just wish Ginge had been my bookmaker – 16-1 Mark?!!!!

    16/1 was my price without a mark up, but was more than a bit out. Think I ballsed it up good and proper. :-( Missed the excuses of last time out Zonderland (hitting head on gates etc) wasn’t sure about the ground either. Was at Salisbury yesterday, unlike the fav Massaat there was nothing in Zonderland’s action to suggest wouldn’t go on it, proved suited. Can’t win ’em all. Always good to see someone profiting, well done Joni! :good:

    Value Is Everything
    #1259611
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    Thanks Mark – you are having a great run at the moment so good to see you are human! I agree with you about JG – his win rate is high. It’s just he is not having anywhere near as many runners as normal and they tend to be either winning or running poorly. Hopefully as you say he is on his way out of that mini-slump.

    Yesterday I though Glencadam Glory ran a race full of promise. You can see with the Nathaniel’s that they take a while to get going and I wouldn’t be backing many of his two year olds, but I think he will come into his own next year when his progeny start tackling middle distances.

    On to today and Looking forward to watching the two Frankel’s running. Aljezeera has been backed into 11-10 and I’ll let her run at that price. It doesn’t look the strongest maiden though and I am hoping she can beat the exposed 76 rated second fav and win well. She is entered in the Fillies Mile so they clearly rate her. Frankuus has a lot on his plate against Amablis and Escobar but I am hoping they will make more use of him today and give them a run for their money. I won’t be backing him though as I expect Escobar to be a touch too classy.

    So I am having three bets. I am a huge fan of Homeofthebrave and it took a top class 7f specialist to beat him at Goodwood. There is nothing of that class in the race today and I expect him to win comfortably. I backed Convey pastime but I think this awkward character will be found out at this level.

    At Newmarket I am backing Hannon’s Somebody To Love in the nursery. I heard a fascinating talk about nurseries the other day on Racing UK about how top weights have a great record because of the maximum weighting rule. I think STL can benefit from this today. I was really taken with her first time out and she has been highly tried since then. Expect her to bounce back today at a big price.

    Finally I think King’s Fete should be a long odds-on shot today. He is extremely progressive and, though he has a alb penalty, this race looks easier than his last one.

    £150 win Homeofthebrave – 6-4 – 4.10 Newbury lost
    £35ew Somebody To Love – 8-1 – 2.15 Newmarket lost
    £100 win King’s Fete – 10-11 – 3.05 Newbury winner
    £10 win doubles
    £10 win treble

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1259713
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    £3,493.40

    Well I got a lot right today but still ended up losing money. Escobar won as expected – Frankuus certainly needs stepping up. Aljezeera won easily and looks to have a future. I didn’t back either of them! King’s Fete won well. Homeofthebrave did everything right but was outclassed by a horse coming back to form. I am kicking myself as I had read that Richard Pankhurst was working the house down – I was put off by the price – bad form. A friend gave me Bashiba over at Donny but too late to post it on here. Watch the race – you’ll rarely see an easier winner over 5f.

    I am having one more bet as I think Deauville is a good price tonight in the Arlington Million. Back tomorrow for Le Marois.

    £35ew Deauville – 11-2 – Arlington Million placed

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1259736
    Avatar photoTriptych
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    • Total Posts 18716

    Mixed day today Joni but well done with King’s Fete and you did well to leave Frankuus alone, sadly Amabilis didn’t win but she did beat Frankuus (into 4th :unsure: ) what a great race by Escobar.

    Aljezeera did the business and continued the trend that Frankel is producing speedy fillies this season, she was about one of my only winners today as had a frustrating day at Newmarket only managing to get places.

    Just a note on Hannon’s Somebody To Love who ran in the first race at Newmarket won by Richard Fahey’s Clef, she looks as though she has a lot of growing to do, the smallest filly in the paddock and looked very undeveloped, I think she’s going need the winter to do some filling out and perhaps come back as a 3yo. Although she’s been highly tried against Roly Poly and Nation’s Alexander (last) she really did nothing impressive in those races and doesn’t seem to have progressed beyond Class 5 or 4 at a push.

    Looking forward to seeing Toulifaut run tomorrow at Deauville, can’t get a price on her yet so waiting until the morning…good luck at York next week Joni.. Jac :rose:

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1259762
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    £3,506.40

    Hi Jac. Yes Somebody To Love was disappointing and hasn’t come on at all from that promising first run. I’m sure Amabilis will win races but it is back to the drawing board with her now. Frankuus should be running over a mile and his trainer said the same thing before the race . I will probably divide opinion with this but I can’t help thinking that the scatter gun approach of Mark Johnston doesn’t bring out the best in all his horses. I was working with a jockey the other day who told me that riding out for Mark Johnston is a bit like entering a factory – because he has so many horses, they all trained in the same way and it is just a conveyor belt of horses. I would be surprised if he gets given any Frankel’s next year. For me he is wasting runs on Frankuus. Why not wait for the 1m listed race at Salisbury on Friday? I’m sure some will say “well he is a racehorse so let him race” but I wish he would be a bit more selective.
    On to today and I have had two bets in the Prix Jacques Le Marois. Galileo Gold is pure….gold and I think he will confirm superiority over Ribchester who I don’t think was as unlucky as some people think last time. I have HAD to have a little ew on an old favourite mine who FINALLY gets his conditions. Arod needs a mile and fast ground to be at his best and this is what he gets today. It might be that he is not the force of old but if he can match his run behind Solow last year then he should go close.

    £100 win Galileo Gold – 15-8 – Deauville 2.55 lost
    £25ew Arod – 25-1 – Deauville 2.55 lost

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1260067
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    Here are my bets – explanations to follow:

    £200 win Postponed – 7-4 – Juddmonte winner
    £25ew Sir Isaac Newton – 50-1 – Juddmonte lost
    £35ew Wings Of Desire – 12-1 – Juddmonte lost
    £35ew Across The Stars – 5-1 – York 3.05 lost
    £100 win Best Of Days – 5-4 – York 2.30 lost
    £35ew Mutawatheb – 7-1 – 4.55 York lost
    £1ew Lucky 45

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1260082
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    So can’t wait for yet another brilliant Summer flat festival. Some great racing to come even though I’m sure there’ll be some saying they are all abysmal races. Honestly – some people hey?!!!

    4 betting races today. Best Of Days is I think a really classy individual. He looked awesome in his maiden and I think he could be special. Mutawatheb ran well at Ascot and I think he will more suited to this speedy 6f. Across The Stars is a typical Stoute improver who must go close.

    In the big one I just think that Postponed has drifted to a backable price. He is the one really solid proven, proper Group 1 horse in the field and I think he will have way too much class for his rivals. I wouldnt worry about the trip as he has a pacemaker who will stretch them and he has that nice, long straight to find his stride. He has improved massively for joining Roger Varian and, as long as he is fit and healthy, he should take all the beating. I have also had two ew’s on good horses at big prices. Wings Of Desire doesnt know how to run a bad race and is a course and distance winner who will also be suited by the way the race is run. Sir Isaac Newton is just massive at 50’s and he ran well for a long time in the King George. He might just sneak a place.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1260193
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    £3,291.34

    A great start to the meeting with some cracking racing and a brilliant winner of the Juddmonte. Horses like him are rare and he should be enjoyed and celebrated. I wouldn’t want to train for that owner though! Elsewhere on the day I hit the post with Best Of Days but I was encouraged to see Lockheed run so well and he was the one that Seven Heavens beat on debut. Idaho did it well in the end having looked like he was going to finish nowhere. He would have to have a great chance in the Leger. All in all a slight loss on the day but I hope to recoup that tomorrow on what I think is the best day of week.

    Obviously it is all about the Lowther for me as two of Frankel’s daughters head the betting. I am starting to get the same confident feelings about Fair Eva as I used to about her dad and I think she will win easily tomorrow. I have backed her in a few straight f/c’s with her sister and a couple of others. I know some are worried about the 6f but that lovely, long straight will suit her perfectly as we saw with Postponed and Highland Reel today. Cream rises to the top.

    In the first race I am going for Miss Infinity who won a listed race last time and who was in Fair Eva’s maiden. She has run consistently well and is a nice price. Then I am on Sir Michael’s Mustashry in the next who I think might be a Group horse in a handicap. Then I am all over Found in the Yorkshire Oaks. She is a proper Group 1 filly and she never runs a bad race. She has been prepared for this race since Epsom and will win I think. Finally I am giving Abingdon a second chance now that she has a better jockey on board and will surely be ridden more aggressively. I HAVE to back the winner of my old mate’s race. Dear Old Henry xxx

    £35ew Miss Infinity – 9-1 – 1.55 York lost
    £100 st f/c Fair Eva/Queen Kindly lost
    £20 st f/c Fair Eva/Nations Alexander lost
    £30 st f/c Fair Eva/Roly Poly 2.30 York lost
    £35ew Mustashry – 11-2 – 3.05 York placed
    £150 win Found – 2-1 – 3.40 York lost
    £80 win Abingdon – 9-4 – 4.20 York winner
    £2 win Lucky 15 Miss Infinity, Mustashry, Found, Abingdon

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1260215
    Avatar photoTriptych
    Participant
    • Total Posts 18716

    Good luck with your bets tomorrow Joni :good: They’re looking good especially Miss Infinity, Found and the 2 x Frankel fillies. I think I’m going to go with you and do the forecast in the Lowther with the Frankel Girls, I’m off to Paddy Powers now to get the best prices he has available.
    Found is a realy favourite of mine and this could be her last season before she is off to make some little Foundlings (sadly not with Frankel).
    Have a good day :rose: Jac

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1260278
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    Thanks Jac – fingers crossed for our girls!!!

    I have had a bit of a rethink after reading Aidan’s comments on Found this morning. She is one who sometimes needs a race or two to show her best so she could be vulnerable today. I have backed her stablemate Seventh Heaven who I think is rock solid for a place and could be the one to take advantage of any fitness doubts with Found.

    £50ew Seventh Heaven 4-1 – 3.40 York winner

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1260308
    Avatar photoBen_Bernanke
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    • Total Posts 2371

    Good luck Joni am on Seventh Heaven too! Unlucky with the forecast bets in the 2nd race, bloody O’Brien getting in the way, let’s hope he makes it back to you in the next.

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