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Thanks for the messages guys – yes Nath loyalty definitely pays and I hope it does today as well!
It looks pretty tricky today but some great racing and I have a couple of bets.
In the first I am really torn between Kings Fete and Mount Logan. Mount Logan has the course form and ran really well in the Hardwick last time. He has to have an outstanding chance but I can’t help thinking that Kings Fete is one of those Stoute improvers that we see every year. He was so unlucky not to win at Royal Ascot and I think he might just have the edge today. To cover myself I have reversed them in a forecast.
In the second I am on the favourite Thikriyaat. I was watching his last last run this morning and I honestly think he hated that ground. Just look at his actin and he is scuttling over it like he would prefer it much quicker. Despite that he was still a fast finishing second behind what we now know is a Group 1 horse. The extra furlong should suit and I think he will win this well.
I’ll let the handicap snip win the next without getting involved at the price and then in the big sprint I am going for two old favourites at big prices. I have long thought that Jungle Cat could win one of these and he has his conditions today. Forget his run last time as he is not a 6f sprinter and he has form that bests many of those that are in front of him in the betting. I have also backed Washington DC as he will love the ground and on his day has the form to go close.
Then in the fillies group race I have again backed two at decent prices. I can’t quite work out why Namroodah is 15-2 as she looks to be made for this 7f. Same comments apply to Marenko who was thought good enough to contest the Coronation last time but hated the ground. She is a massive price compared to Besharah who she easily beat earlier in the season. I am convinced that the favourite needs every inch of a mile and could be done for a bit of toe.
£50 win Kings Fete – 11-4 – Goodwood 2.00 winner
£50 win Thikriyaat – 5-2 – Goodwood 2.35 winner
£25ew Jungle Cat – 18-1 – Goodwood 3.45 lost
£25ew Washington DC – 12-1 – Goodwood 3.45 placed
£25ew Namroodah – 15-2 – Goodwood 4.55 placed
£25ew Marenko – 14-1 – Goodwood 4.55 lost
£0.5ew Lucky 15 (60 bets)
£20 rev f/c Kings Fete/Mount Logan lost"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
+£3,268.54
Another top day and another profit. Thanks again Ben for your encouragement. Delighted with the two winners and the Stoute stable is flying so will have a little bit on their good thing in the last. Two things to note – Mount Logan ran no sort of race and I can’t believe that the Godolphin horse was so well backed in that last race – he needs a mile. Washington DC ran a cracker but so livid to be beaten by Ginge’s horse :) :) :)
£80 win Poet’s Word – 15-8 – 5.30 Goodwood winner
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Although that Godolphin fav might not have benefited by the drop in trip Joni, I wonder whether it’s not more to do with temperament. Although Always Smile has won her fair share, often looks a quirky filly.
Well done today/this week. You’re a top judge.
GL with Poet’s Word, will be shouting it home for you.
PS Sorry about Take Cover.
Value Is EverythingAlthough that Godolphin fav might not have benefited by the drop in trip Joni, I wonder whether it’s not more to do with temperament. Although Always Smile has won her fair share, often looks a quirky filly.
Well done today/this week. You’re a top judge.
GL with Poet’s Word, will be shouting it home for you.
PS Sorry about Take Cover.
Thanks Mark – you too of course. Great to see you picking up where you left off!
Another winner for Stoute – it amazes me that you have people on the main forum who genuinely don’t think there is anything to trainer form. Long may it last I guess……
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
+£3,428.54
Good old Stoute and Moore. Icing on the cake.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Another good winner for you in the last.
Get on the 20/1 Stoutey in the big one tomorrow Joni! Queens Trust. I make her favourite in the “betting without” market and if anything were to happen with Minding (there’s no pace in the race) 20/1 is worth a speculitive wager too imo.
Might regret giving away some of my secrets over on the Horse Racing section.
Value Is EverythingSo hoping to finish the week on a high after a really productive few days. It is all about one trainer for me at the moment. Sir Michael is having a great time of it. Those who know no different might think it is just one of those statistical quirks but I can tell you it isn’t. During the weeks and months of bad weather and bad ground Stoute has been patient and not felt the need to over-race his horses. You are seeing the results now as his string are fresh and raring to go. He has lots of runners tomorrow and I am on five of them.
My biggest bet is on Abingdon in the first at Newmarket. Apparently they thought about running this filly in the Nassau but decided to take in this easier contest instead. I actually live in Abingdon so this one is a must for me! She is a lovely big filly who should enjoy the step up in trip.
He runs two sons of Sea The Stars in the Qatar Handicap and I think they could both go well. Shabbah ran really well at Royal Ascot and I think Ryan will make plenty of use of him tomorrow as he stays all day. Expect to see a different performance from Shraaoh as well now that the ground is quicker.
Ginge has persuaded me to have a look at Queen’s Trust. I must admit I was going to leave the race alone until I watched the videos of her last two races and she was really unlucky in both. Obviously Minding is in a league of her own but we saw at The Curragh that she IS beatable – they are not machines – but I have also taken Ginge’s advice and played in the w/o market.
Finally I am on Estidraak in the 4.55. This one was fancied in a listed race last time and ran no sort of race but he was coming back from a long absence and the stable are in much better form now obviously. He has something to prove but 10’s is a decent price to find out.
£150 win Abingdon 15-8 – Newmarket 2.15 loser
£35ew Shabbah – 8-1 – Goodwood 2.35 loser
£35ew Shraooh – 7-1 – Goodwood 2.35 placed
£50 win Queen’s Trust – 10-3 – Nassau winner (w/o Minding)
£25ew Queen’s Trust – 18-1 – Nassau placed
£25ew Estidraak – 10-1 – 4.55 Goodwood loser
£1ew Lucky 15 (30 bets)"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Great minds think alike Joni
We’re on all the same horses (haven’t looked at the 4:55). Shabbah (2:35) is just a saver for me, he’s the only prominent racer I’ve backed (of 5 possible front runners). Think it might be best coming from rear (if you pardon the expression).Bit disappointed had to go to Newmarket to find another good class race on this Saturday. I’ve done Abingdon with saver on Lady Of camelot.
This “Glorious” betting week can’t last, can it?
Value Is EverythingGreat minds think alike Joni
We’re on all the same horses (haven’t looked at the 4:55). Shabbah (2:35) is just a saver for me, he’s the only prominent racer I’ve backed (of 5 possible front runners). Think it might be best coming from rear (if you pardon the expression).Bit disappointed had to go to Newmarket to find another good class race on this Saturday. I’ve done Abingdon with saver on Lady Of camelot.
This “Glorious” betting week can’t last, can it?
Well it can when you come with genius bets like the one you have just given me on Queen’s Trust. 100% credit to you for that one!!
TD didn’t make enough use of Abingdon and Shabbah ran no sort of race but that one makes up for it!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Lockheed is out to a backable price. Will be interesting to see how he goes as he gave Seven Heavens a good race on debut.
£100 win Lockheed – 10-11 – 4.20 Goodwood winner Evens
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
+£3,554.15
A small profit to finish the week thanks to Ginge’s advice but a near £3,000 week is not too shoddy! Stoute’s horses all ran well today with the exception of Shaddah. Abingdon was given a poor ride by Ted Durcan; dropping her out at the back in a slowly run race, she only started to get going once the winner had flown. I have never been a huge fan of Ted but he is clearly well liked and Cecil and Stoute have both used him late on in their careers so there must be something there. On the subject of early pace, it was interesting to see how Ryan Moore rode this week in comparison to how he was riding in June. If you remember he had got into the habit of riding all his well fancied mounts out the back and, whilst he won one or two like that, he lost a few he should have won. He made no such mistakes this week, riding out of his skin, but interestingly he rode pretty much all of them prominently. He also took the brave route round the inside and was skilful enough and ballsy enough to wait for the gaps to appear. Annoying,even though he is now level with SDS in the jockeys championship he has pretty much given up riding during the week so has virtually no chance of winning. I’ll be looking to lay off my bet.Minding was workmanlike today but the race didn’t go all her own way and she probably wasn’t at her best. It says everything about her quality that she still managed to win. She is one of the best fillies of modern times. Queen’s Best ran a stormer and justified her trainers high opinion of her. The Yorkshire Oaks should be her next target. I was pleased to see Lockheed win to frank the form of Seven Heavens and it looked a decent maiden.
I’ll be easing off over the next week or so as there is not much good racing and I am not a fan of the Ascot thing next week but there are a couple of Frankel’s to look out for so will be looking out for them. The season is back on track and hopefully the winners will keep coming.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Seems to bemoaned around for the Frankel colt in Ireland. Lightening Fast showed little first time out but has some good entries and will surely have come on a lot for his first run. The quicker ground might just help as well and hopefully he will give the fav something to think about.
£50ew Lightening Fast – 4-1 – 4.25 Naas placed
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
A decent run from LF who should win next time out. I have heard very good things about Canonbury tomorrow at Chelmsford. Apparently she is a different animal this year and is expected to go close. She is already being backed so get in there quick.
£100 win Canonbury – 3-1 – 8.20 Chelmsford lost
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
A horse I like at a backable price on a track he likes.
£30ew Strong Steps – 7-2 – Chelmsford 7.20 lost
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
A quiet weekend and we are away camping in the beautiful Dorset countryside but still managed a couple of bets
£25ew Mix and Mingle – 9-1 placed
£150 win Majoris 6-5 winner
£80 win Easy Victory – 11-4 lost
£5 win patent"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
£3,462.15
So first bet for a while but plenty to come this weekend and next week at York. The one I like today is Zonderland in the Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury. This is a race with lots of exposed, older horses who have consistently failed to win at this sort of level. The obvious danger is Masaat who was my Derby pick after his excellent second in the Guineas. But this is his first run for a little while and I think he is worth taking on with a horse who has a little bit to find on form but loves the ground, is definitely a miler, has an in-form trainer and is a better price. Must be good ew value.
£50ew Zonderland – 5-1 – 4.10 Salisbury winner (10p deduction)
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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