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The original Gosden quote in full was:-
Gosden said: “It was not his running at Newmarket.
“He is a five-furlong horse and he wasn’t happy.
“I think he is a five-furlong horse and I think altogether that was not his trip – as simple as that.
“We will just freshen him up and give him every chance.
“There is nothing in my mind, just dropping back to five is the obvious thing.”
Corm says Ardad has won on different types of ground but one thing I have noticed is horses who can win their maiden on a certain type of ground do not necessarily find it possible to repeat the feat at the top level.
They may not have beaten much in their maiden and could just have had tons in hand. Also it is not just about the individual horse and the going, it is also about how it may inconvenience many of their opponents.
Youlong Baobei is about the only decent winner to come out of the Chesham. She won a listed race as 11/10 Fav but was then beaten in a group 3. She carried a mark of 107 into that contest but was beaten in third behind a horse rated 87 in second and a winner who was 50/1. It doesn’t exactly chime as “Rack Salad” form, as Fitzy is prone to putting it.
In nominating Ardad as a horse to avoid, for the reasons explained, it doesn’t matter about the how? and why?, it is purely about was the concern justified?
In the July Stakes thread, I, and several others, thought Mehmas was a nailing bet because of his proven form at the distance of 6F and the questions marks about the Ardad form strength, allied to the fact it was over 5F. Some outlets simply stated “Trip fine” in their Ardad preview.
Clearly, John Gosden’s post Newmarket comments suggested that “Trip fine” didn’t begin to cover it and you would think that, having stated what he did so vehemently, he would stick to the sentiment and give the horse a chance to prove himself back at 5F. Instead of that he was pitched in against one of the best 6F horses in the country in the form of Blue Point, who had closely tied form with proven performer Mehmas.
It is beyond me that they could honestly have felt this was the right race for Ardad after their previous comments.
It’s in the book for all to see on the official ratings today 24/08/16.
Ardad 99
Mehmas 113
Blue Point 115
It seems clear to me that the “Knowledgeable” people knew which ones to back. All the waffle in the world won’t change that fact.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If the horse can’t go 3f Ginge then not only is Gosden running him at the wrong trip he is running a horse that clearly has something wrong with it
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has shown form on both GS and GF so ground doesn’t look a critical factor.
Why? Quality of the two races in question nowhere near the same.
In reality, the “form” of the 3 1/4 lengths GS win in a Listed race is far superior to the GF length victory in a Yarmouth maiden… And yet the two runs were separated by only 6 days, which normally does not give time for much improvement. So it could be that Ardad is simply better on a soft surface, which he has not had since Ascot.
Value Is EverythingI know I keep saying this (so much so that I am actually boring myself) but there is/has been a bad virus in Newmarket and I am sure several horses have run well below par. Godson’s have tended to win or flop – not much in between.
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The Gimcrack provided ‘weighty evidence’. How?
Because the horse runs over 5F twice and wins. Steps up to 6F and weakens at end of race on both occasions (trainer having already publicly voiced fairly strong view that 5f is the horse’s trip). In terms of evidence we have several strands, trainer’s view, 2 x 5f runs and 2 x 6f runs. Each provides pretty clear (or weighty) evidence (although not conclusive) that he doesn’t ‘stay’ (by which I mean optimal performance distance) 6f as well as he does 5f in as much as his best performance over 5 is markedly better than either of those over 6.
Yes, there are a million other possible reasons. or combination of reasons, why he may have bombed last twice and you cannot discount them, but on the evidence thus far presented on a racecourse it is more than reasonable to conclude that he is more suited to 5 than 6. It doesn’t mean that it is a correct conclusion, time may prove it wrong. Just that, on the evidence we have to date, including the Gimcrack, it is reasonable to come to that view, although I accept it could be proven to be wrong by events that occur in the future. GT, would you simply ignore that Gimcrack run when assessing what you felt to be his optimal distance?
Anyway, it is simply opinions, and they may be tested too as he has entries in both the Mill Reef and Middle Park.
If the horse can’t go 3f Ginge then not only is Gosden running him at the wrong trip he is running a horse that clearly has something wrong with it
Hate to break it to you Nathan.
Horses can not talk.
A trainer might think he’s got the horse right, sometimes only in running can they tell.Value Is EverythingI know I keep saying this (so much so that I am actually boring myself) but there is/has been a bad virus in Newmarket and I am sure several horses have run well below par. Godson’s have tended to win or flop – not much in between.
Joni, could they test the horses for the virus to see which ones had it or is it not as simple as that.?
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The Gimcrack provided ‘weighty evidence’. How?
Because the horse runs over 5F twice and wins. Steps up to 6F and weakens at end of race on both occasions (trainer having already publicly voiced fairly strong view that 5f is the horse’s trip). In terms of evidence we have several strands, trainer’s view, 2 x 5f runs and 2 x 6f runs. Each provides pretty clear (or weighty) evidence (although not conclusive) that he doesn’t ‘stay’ (by which I mean optimal performance distance) 6f as well as he does 5f in as much as his best performance over 5 is markedly better than either of those over 6.
Yes, there are a million other possible reasons. or combination of reasons, why he may have bombed last twice and you cannot discount them, but on the evidence thus far presented on a racecourse it is more than reasonable to conclude that he is more suited to 5 than 6. It doesn’t mean that it is a correct conclusion, time may prove it wrong. Just that, on the evidence we have to date, including the Gimcrack, it is reasonable to come to that view, although I accept it could be proven to be wrong by events that occur in the future. GT, would you simply ignore that Gimcrack run when assessing what you felt to be his optimal distance?
Yes, I would ignore the race for assessing Ardad’s optimal distance.
When assessing whether a race is “evidence” of a horse being better at 5f rather than the 6 it ran over; for me it is not enough to just look at race distances and ratings before concluding the reason for the results is distance. I look at how the horse did it. Ardad was beaten well before stamina should have been a problem. We already know the horse stays 5f, so should’ve got further than 3f at York.On the evidence of Newmarket’s July Stakes I’d say Ardad might prove best at 5f, particularly if he does not learn to settle better than that day. Settled better at York.
Value Is EverythingI know I keep saying this (so much so that I am actually boring myself) but there is/has been a bad virus in Newmarket and I am sure several horses have run well below par. Godson’s have tended to win or flop – not much in between.
Gosden seems to be over the problem and would not describe his current form as “win or flop” Joni. Both current win and place strike rates better than Gosden’s average strike rates. Scores 8 out of 10 on my “Trainer in form” ratings. Possibly a reason for the July Stakes, unlikely for Gimcrack.
Value Is EverythingWhen a horse faces stronger opposition than it has previously encountered, it is highly likely that it will be out of its comfort zone earlier.
Here is Ardad’s debut:-
http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-overlay/VOD/940490
He probably comes under the push about 2F from home and it’s hardly a devastating burst that carries him through to win. That’s probably why he was 20/1 going to Ascot.
If you translate that effort to facing horses such as Mehmas and Blue Point, the difference is that you are being pushed along, but you are then against horses who are rated well over 100, and not ones rated between 60-80. In the maiden race you start staying past tiring, lower level animals, in the Group race, you are finding good horses who can travel better than you and then quicken into the bargain.
As much as anything, Ardad was probably just out of his depth and the virus theories are unnecessary.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Never has been so much written about such an ordinary horse
Could be an example of an early two year old that hasn’t really gone on.
In the July stakes I was struck by how small he is and he lacks scope. A class seven handicap at wolves awaits later in his career
Back down in trip for tomorrow at Donny
Any predictions on how he gets on….?Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Back down in trip for tomorrow at Donny
Any predictions on how he gets on….?Ardad is 12/1 and doesn’t make the top 3 of the Timeform preview.
Tis Marvellous was the one who tried to match pace with Lady Aurelia in the Prix Morny and it was the other three in the race who came past him as he paid for his early exertions and they finished close up behind the filly who didn’t look as devastating as she had over 5F at Ascot.
Yalta could win this but he looks an absolute toss of a coin horse with 11881L figures. Stable mate The Last Lion has a more consistent profile but probably hasn’t hit the same level yet and he’s been busy.
I’ll have a think about it but may not play. I can’t see Ardad winning this. Even at tip top over 5F I worry whether he is simply behind some of these.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve’s reproduction of the Timeform 1-2-3 Preview is sound.
Tis Marvellous took on Lady Aurelia last time and if returning to the Robert Papin form will take plenty of beating. Wouldn’t put anyone off.
Yalta won the Molecomb in great style, making all. But since disappointed in Nunthorpe, drawn on the wrong side and didn’t get a good break, never able to lead and worryingly hung left. Stable were in fine form for Goodwood, not as good at York and even less so here.
The Last Lion was some way behind Yalta and isn’t as good, but unlike his stable companion did run well last time out and as genuine as they come. Yard’s current strike rate still puts me off a little though and only 6 days recovery time.
Prince Of Lir‘s trainer isn’t in good enough form for me to be interested.
One I like each way is Afandem, who also only has 8 days to recover from a good 5f Group 3 win in France. However, his stable is in cracking form. Wouldn’t be surprised if at least one or two of those shorter in the market don’t fire and Afandem is imo the percentage call.
Equimou could outrun his odds if over his Donny 3rd of a couple of days ago.
As for Ardad: Beaten before stamina came in to it in the Gimcrack and imo not enough promise in that performance to be worth risking. Especially if there’s no rain. Could easily be good-firm come the off and best run so far on a soft surface. Others seem to have improved past him since Royal Ascot anyway. Positive market move might change things, but at the moment I’m opposing at current prices.
Can’t see the others figuring.
Value Is EverythingAs there’s a lot of pace upfront with Yalta and Tis Marvellous I can see them setting it up for Afandem, who can come from off the gallop
I know I keep saying this (so much so that I am actually boring myself) but there is/has been a bad virus in Newmarket and I am sure several horses have run well below par. Godson’s have tended to win or flop – not much in between.
Do we still think the virus quotes are unnecessary?
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