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John Gosden’s Ardad was an impressive winner at Royal Ascot over 5F. He went on to finish last when fancied against Mehmas when stepped up to six furlongs.
There were suggestions that the horse might have gone wrong in the Mehmas race but Gosden emerged later to put us in the picture.
Three times in that interview John Gosden told us that “Ardad is purely and simply a 5 Furlong horse”
Well that’s us all in the picture you say.
What do you know though, out comes Ardad at Goodwood today and he’s in the Richmond Stakes, a race run over, you’ve guessed it, SIX FURLONGS.
Why do we listen to these trainers?
Yet again, ATR manage to balls up their preview with the information that “Ardad didn’t give his running over 7F last time”
Come on, get your acts together.
Mehmas is a big price today at 11/2, he’s only a little un’ but he’s game and the Godolphin horse looks too short for me. Ardad is 18/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have to agree with you Steve regarding Ardad but maybe the owner insisted he run in this ??? That to me seems like the only explanation but hey ho what do I know.
And I agree with you regarding MEHMAS and in fact I have backed him each way at 6/1 !!
I have to agree with you Steve regarding Ardad but maybe the owner insisted he run in this ??? That to me seems like the only explanation but hey ho what do I know.
Thought it looked a bit strange. Suspect you’re right Raymo. Other possible reasons…
Gosden’s quote about Ardad is primarily about Ardad’s stamina limitations. Goodwood’s straight course is (I believe) the second fastest in the country and firm ground adds to the speed test. Course record in the Molecomb yesterday suggests even firmer/faster than the official description. If Ardad was ever going to try 6f again it’s with today’s conditions; conditions which place a lot less emphasis on stamina than Newmarket on July Stakes day.
It’s also possible something has come to light at home since Gosden’s analysis. Something amiss or race came too soon etc. Although had that been the case you’d hope Gosden would’ve given an update.
Too difficult to work out for me.
Blue Point looked top class in the making last time out in a fast time.
Mehmas has the Group form.
AOB is in cracking form and has a “could be anything (or nothing)” horse.
Ardad’s Royal Ascot form gives him a chance if…Value Is EverythingI did Blue Point for the Guineas but Mehmas today. The price was crazy value.
Blue Point has run a belter and looks the horse to go forward, I felt he was a bit green today and it’s the first time he has had a proper race.
Mehmas is keeping the form of Caravaggio’s Coventry win up.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I did Blue Point for the Guineas but Mehmas today. The price was crazy value.
Blue Point has run a belter and looks the horse to go forward, I felt he was a bit green today and it’s the first time he has had a proper race.
Mehmas is keeping the form of Caravaggio’s Coventry win up.
We agree again Steve, Blue Point is the one to take out of it for the future.
Not sure about the Guineas though with Godolphin’s record.
Value Is EverythingHe’s got a lot of potential in becoming Richard Pankhurst the second.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I was surprised to see Mehmas as low as 10/1 for the Guineas and Blue Point pushed out to 20/1.
All in all, that doesn’t make sense to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well after all the strong talk from Gosden about Ardad being a 5F horse pure and simple, they ran him at 6F again.
He stank again.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well after all the strong talk from Gosden about Ardad being a 5F horse pure and simple, they ran him at 6F again.
He stank again.
May have run poorly, had nothing to do with the distance though. Beaten by just over halfway.
Ar Dad is obviously not showing the speed he did at home before the Gosden quote.
Had Ar Dad ran at 5f he’d have performed even worse.Runs at both Newmarket and York seem to suggest either something amiss or doesn’t like going on the firm side.
Value Is EverythingExcuses, excuses, excuses.
Whichever way you look at it, the warning signs were there.
It’s all about deciding if something is worth a bet in this game.
Warnings were issued and the horse flopped twice.
I suppose I am just lucky at seeing something, not liking the look of it and then seeing my fears recognised in full.
The race he won at Ascot looked awful and I said it looked one to avoid.
End of.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think I said to billion at the time that Ardad’s win at Ascot was on soft and he wasn’t fancied and that the result should be taken with a bucket of salt.
25/1 for the Guineas, the female 800m winner Caster Semenya would give him a decent race over that distance. If John was serious about this horse he’d have him in the Prix De l’Abbaye where he may get his going.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I am saying the horse is clearly not right at the moment and was struggling by half-way (after just 3f). Therefore, the poor Gimcrack running was nothing to do with Gosden running Ardad at 6f. That’s not “excuses”, that’s run-of-the-mill race reading. ie In future, 5f may or may not prove his best distance when (or if) returning to form… Only someone with a very strong confirmation bias or hasn’t looked at the race from an unbiased point of view can think the Gimcrack proves Ardad better at 5f.
When a horse does not stay or struggles to stay the trip, I expect the horse to travel well until the closing stages before not finding as much as seemd likely and/or weakening late. Ardad came under presure and beaten far too soon to blame the trip (at halfway).
There are always possible valid “excuses” for running poorly, part of a punters job is working out why horses don’t perform. Indeed, the majority of poor runs have valid excuses. Unbelievable to me any knowledeable punter thinks Ardad ran to Ascot form when 7 lengths last of 9 at Newmarket and 8 lenths 7th of 10 at York. May be he needs softer ground, may be something is amiss. It’s probable Group 2’s will prove too good, but one thing is for sure… Ardad has not reproduced anything like Windsor Castle form since.
End of… :lol:
Value Is EverythingConfirmation bias looks like becoming the new percentages table.
End of eh? I wouldn’t count on it GT, this could run and run.
A few of those behind at Ascot have won since and he won it very readily so I’m not sure the Ascot race looked ‘awful’, that said the second is currently rated 88 (beaten just over 3 lengths by Ardad). That’d put Ardad on about 98.
Gosden’s comments, as reported here, do make subsequent placings appear a little strange given that he was pretty emphatic.
What you can say is that in his races so far he’s pretty evidently shown better form at 5f than 6f but has shown form on both GS and GF so ground doesn’t look a critical factor. Yes, he could have weakened for other reasons in both his races at 6f but I’m sure most knowledgable punters, GT, would have a big Q around him at 6F against 5F at this stage. Not conclusive proof (we very rarely ever get conclusive proof of anything in this game which is why it is a game of opinions and percentage probabilities) but the Gimcrack did provide some more weighty evidence that Gosden’s post Newmarket stipulation that 5F is his game was correct. Pedigree is pretty much all about speed.
He’s a nice looker and it’d be no surprise to see him get back on course in the future at which point….batten down the hatches!
The Gimcrack provided ‘weighty evidence’. How? It provided only slightly more evidence than if the horse hadn’t even come out the stalls. There is no logical link at all between the horse ‘bombing out’ at York and race distance.
Apologies because I really shouldn’t be getting involved again but just to say I already made the point that Ginger has been trying to make on the Gimcrack thread before this thread reappeared.
Nobody probably knows for sure what has happened with Ardad. Another possible explanation might be the two very quick runs from which the horse might not have recovered. It is not an unknown phenomena for a horse just to register one peak performance and never match it again. Whatever the explanation no sane punter is going to be rushing to back Ardad in the near future so he really doesn’t warrant a massive analysis.
but the Gimcrack did provide some more weighty evidence that Gosden’s post Newmarket stipulation that 5F is his game was correct.
How?
Even allowing for the Group 2 being of better quality race than a Listed race… Where “5f is a horse’s game” wouldn’t you expect him to go further than 3f before well beaten, David? Although Ardad may end up a 5f horse, the fact he was in trouble so early suggests to me his York performance was nothing to do with distance. Had it been a 5f race the result/performance would’ve been just as bad. So imo does not add anything to the “evidence” on Ardad’s distance requirements.
Value Is Everything
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