- This topic has 92 replies, 33 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
I have had very few ante post bets this year but had to back this AL BOUM PHOTO at 10/1 NRNB purely on its run behind Monalee last time out.
Not sure if it will run in this but if it does it won’t start 10/1 IMO and only has to find about a length with Monalee
Yeah, no harm although I’m 90% sure he’ll go to the RSA. It’s probably best to have a bet on The JLT now with NRNB before it cuts up any further.
I’ve cashed out my 25/1 Al Boum Photo bet here, looks more and more likely he goes RSA, and I’ve added him there at 10/1 NRNB.
10/1 is a grand price for him; considering there’s very little between himself and Monalee. I have 5 euro on Percy at 14/1 but I might back Al Boum Photo each way as my main bet.
Connections have stated that Terrefort is likely to line up for the JLT. He is also in the RSA but they have said that next season is when they are looking to step him up to 3 miles.
Terrefort seems friendless on the forum but I feel he will go off a single figure price and have a squeak.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just blogged:
I’ve been impressed by the talent and tenacity of Nicky Henderson’s Terrefort this season, the grey gelding’s first in the UK. He won at Huntingdon off a mark of 137, powering away after the last, his jockey not breaking sweat.
The BHA handicapper was impressed and lumped him up a stone, to the dismay of his trainer. The new rating was put to the test in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown next time. In a cracking race, Terrefort jumped with accuracy and speed, the much bigger and stronger-looking Cyrname the only one who could go with him. Terrefort cleverly fiddled his way over two out after a sight misunderstanding with jockey Jacob, jumped the last well, and was always holding the rallying Cyrname.
The pair finished miles clear of the remainder – No Comment, Kalondra, and West Approach. Cyrname is the only one from that race to have run since, winning at Kempton at 2/5.
Terrefort improved a fair bit between Huntingdon and Kempton according to his jockey, and I think it’s reasonable to assume he’ll have improved further. The stats appear at first glance to be stacked against him as a potential winner of the JLT, but I’m not particularly concerned by that. There have been just seven runnings of the race which achieved Grade 1 status only in 2014.
Terrefort is a 5-y-o. All JLT winners have been 6 or 7, but a quick dig through the race’s short history shows that only four 5-y-olds have run in it and the only one of them who was rated around the same as Terrefort – Bristol De Mai – finished second. All seven winners have run at the previous year’s festival whereas Terrefort was still in his native France then. Six of the seven were trained in Ireland, but Nicky Henderson has a fine festival record and I have no worries on that score.
Terrefort comes into this with a rating higher than four of the past seven winners.
I’ve a slight concern that all four of Terrefort’s wins have been right-handed, but I can see nothing in his jumping or general demeanour to suggest he’ll be unsuited to going the other way. In fact, he looks agile and nimble and Cheltenham ought to suit his style well.
There’s a fair chance that soft ground is important to him and if he doesn’t look like getting it, Henderson might take him out. On that basis, I *strongly recommend backing him at 8/1 with Bet365, who offer best odds guaranteed and money back if he doesn’t run. I think he’ll be no bigger than 5/1 come the off next Thursday.
As this is the first race tomorrow i went ahead to try and use the Coral £25 money back bet if you lose…..
The offer doesn’t seem to be advertised on their site any longer? I went onto the chat and they said it will be updated tomorrow…wouldnt fill me with confidence
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Not much enthusiasm for this race it seems.
I’m glad to be getting a run for my bet at 25/1 on Terrefort. It would be nice if one of these went and won for a change but in all likelihood Mullins’ will come there cantering 2 out and sluice up the hill.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice price Steve, I am siding with Shattered Love and Kemboy for the race.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Think it has to be an Irish winner after then RSA, NHC and Arkle. Invitation Only or Shattered Love. Shattered Love wants 3 miles according to Elliot. O’Leary insisted she go here
Think it has to be an Irish winner after then RSA, NHC and Arkle. Invitation Only or Shattered Love. Shattered Love wants 3 miles according to Elliot. O’Leary insisted she go here.
I agree, SL is really a 3 miler. But if they get the rain forecast this is going to be a stamina test at the trip. I’ve backed both Kemboy and Shattered Love as main bets, Weight recieved as a mare will also be worth more on the ground. Invitation Only now to win a lesser sum and Terrefort (who am less sure of staying the trip on that ground) just a saver.
Value Is EverythingCracking price on Terrefort, Steve. Outside of the real shorties, he’s my biggest fancy of the meeting
You have a decent price MOM and you must be happy with how CSS franked that form earlier in the week
I think Shattered Love was the number 1 hope for the RSA. At the Betfair preview Gordon Elliot was very confident that Presenting Percy would hose up regardless of what ran, and win next years Gold Cup.
Might well explain her going here instead.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.