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Just watched the Jim Bolger interview on RUK once again. When it came to the reasons why he prefers to go for the 2000, Ire 2000, Ire Derby, instead of the English Derby with New Approach. He said he wants to win the Ire 2000 as he is yet to win it. If my memory serves me right he is also yet to win the English Derby. Surely he would rather win the Epsom race than another race over 1 mile (if indeed he wins the English version). It was interesting that when answering the question, he first looked down for a time, then when looking up could not stop blinking. I know he does this to a certain degree naturally, but it was more pronounced.
The other time I noticed the same thing happening was when answering the question about whether he regrets the decision running Finscael Beo in the French 1000 (not been the same since).
Is it not what body language experts look for when looking for "half truths"?New Approach is certainly a quirky individual, as Jim himself intimated. Not liking going under archways and needing a pony to lead him to post. What part will the pony have in the parade to post on Guineas day?
Could it be Mr. Bolger realises the atmosphere on English Derby day may well get to his charge. Possibly would not be allowed the company of his pony either.Do you think this may be at least as valid a reason as the one the great man gave?
Ginge
Value Is EverythingMaybe he hasn’t trained on in quite the way Bolger thought he would?
There was talk of a tilt at the Triple Crown in the winter. It seems a strange one.
Looking at him on TV Mac, certainly looks a fine specimen of a three year old, should train on well.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingAbsolutely. Looks a good decision to me as they’ll have much more time to stretch him out to a mile and a half before the Curragh at the end of June. It’s very hard to win the Derby nowadays off a run in the Guineas.
Think it is a matter of breeding, if a horse who relaxes well wins the 2000, yet is bred to win the Derby, he has a very good chance.
Ginge
Value Is Everything
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Just watched the Jim Bolger interview on RUK once again. When it came to the reasons why he prefers to go for the 2000, Ire 2000, Ire Derby, instead of the English Derby with New Approach. He said he wants to win the Ire 2000 as he is yet to win it. If my memory serves me right he is also yet to win the English Derby. Surely he would rather win the Epsom race than another race over 1 mile (if indeed he wins the English version). It was interesting that when answering the question, he first looked down for a time, then when looking up could not stop blinking. I know he does this to a certain degree naturally, but it was more pronounced.
The other time I noticed the same thing happening was when answering the question about whether he regrets the decision running Finscael Beo in the French 1000 (not been the same since).
Is it not what body language experts look for when looking for "half truths"?New Approach is certainly a quirky individual, as Jim himself intimated. Not liking going under archways and needing a pony to lead him to post. What part will the pony have in the parade to post on Guineas day?
Could it be Mr. Bolger realises the atmosphere on English Derby day may well get to his charge. Possibly would not be allowed the company of his pony either.Do you think this may be at least as valid a reason as the one the great man gave?
Ginge
Finsceal Beo not been the same since???
Won the Irish 1,000 a fortnight later, and an unlucky 5th in the Dubai Duty Free this year, interspersed by 3 races where she failed to stay.
Bet Jim Bolger wishes he’d got a few more as disappointing as her.
I would agree that she hasnt been the same and the Irish gunieas form is not at all decent. She has been campaigned oddly and has maybe shown some form in dubai, but she remains one to swerve for me…at the top level anyway
I can understand why New Approach would not be suited by Epsom but cannot understand why Bolger simply cannot say so? What harm would it do and the explanation he gave made no sense at all
Look at how Derby winners perform afterwards. Authorised is unusual in that he won the Juddmonte and a good second at Sandown; mostDerby winners never win at the highest level again, many do not even race at the highest level again.
Maybe that body language is saying "I don’t want to ruin the horse" and of course can’t really come out and say that.
Arc? Breeders Cup ?
Well, the first question there is why is he sending him to the Irish 2000 and there are two possible reasons.
I think Bolger is going for the Irish Guineas as he may get more suitable ground and possibly a more suitable race for him, depending on how newmarket turns out and he may have a better chance there. There is also the aspect that Bolgers may have taken a bit more time to come to hand this season, all of his have been negatives in the antepost betting, his stable hasnt generally been firing them in the way they were at this time last year and he possibly doesnt feel N/A will be 100% for newmarket, and maybe doesnt want to rush him after what happened to teofilo last year.
If you can answer the first question then you have pretty much answered the second question of why not go to epsom? If he is to go for the irish guineas then it is very close to epsom and only leaves a fortnight to put that race behind him and prep him for a 50% increase in the distance hes been training for, which isnt really a great deal. So the Irish derby it would be, but on his 2yo form I would think that New Approach would make a brilliant 3yo to take for the eclipse, but the Irish Derby sits a bit close to that chronologically aswell.
I dont think New Approach in his races looks that highly strung, and I dont know how unsuited to epsom he would be, It would only really be a case of switching off up the hill and round tattenham, and he’d be there and menacing. Ive seen far more highly strung horses switch off, and in bigger fields (like the derby) it is that bit easier to block out daylight and switch them off, much more so than newmarket where they are spread across the track (and hes already won at newmarket).
Irish Derby’s new sponsor this year is Dubai Duty Free. New Approach is now fully owned by Darley and will run in the colours of Princess Haya of Jordan. Any chance that those 2 factors have anything to do with this his campaign.
Irish Derby’s new sponsor this year is Dubai Duty Free. New Approach is now fully owned by Darley and will run in the colours of Princess Haya of Jordan. Any chance that those 2 factors have anything to do with this his campaign.
Good point, well presented David.My take is that New Approach is like his uncle, Black Sam Bellamy, the size of a chaser and thus he would stand a chance of getting wrecked running over the epsom track, hence Bolger;s descion.
I think the boys in blue and SM are reeling a bit, they have had a few bad seasons lately and they are trying to re-establish themselves as a major force. Godolphin have a few good 3yo’s this season in Ibn Khaldun, Fast Company, Rio De La Plata, Il Waard and McCartney and possibly they are gonna spread them out over Europe and try to win as many big races as possible.
Looks like they will run IK and FC in the guineas along with NA(Princess of Jordan, but under the darley banner in some shape or form). After that i think they will go their different ways…if NA does run in the irish classics, dont expect any of the others to be there – especailly if he wins the gunieas.
I New Approach wins the Guineas beating her husbands horse she has bragging rights…..
As I’m sure you’ll be aware, there’s a history between the English and the Irish, Ginge. Just as there is between Cockneys and the rest of the country. I remember growing up ever so benignly comfortable in the knowledge that as a Londoner I livied at the hub of the universe, and the rest of the country well were.. I suppose, a bit yokelish! I later learnt that this wasn’t at all how non-Londoners saw us or indeed themselves.
We have a history of empire, as the winners. Thing is, people who don’t but suffered under it, tend not to believe the publicity about ourselves and our institutions, etc, that we do so enthusiastically.
The Derby isn’t, I believe, considered by other countries to have the same cachet as it does to us; and in fact, it’s a bit down the pecking order now, I believe.
Still, generally-speaking, the Irish are gents and, as an Irish gent-gent, Mr Bolger would have been trying to be as polite as he could, whatever his real reasons might have been. That would be my reading of it.
If a horse misses an obvious target (and the Epsom Derby is the obvious target for New Approach on form, breeding and convention) then it is usually because the trainer thinks/knows it wont win.
Bolger probably knows something about NA’s knees, back or the space between its ears that leads him to suspect he can’t win at Epsom.
Good point, well presented David.
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