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No, I don’t mean Betrader ER, it was Peter Martins who I believe is/was a firm of odds-compilers working for many different bookmakers. Individual bookmakers then get their own odds compilers to look at those odds and tweek them – which may well be the reason so many bookmakers have similar odds.
Value Is EverythingThis will become one of those circular GT arguments without an end but, for what it’s worth GT, I don’t think you are ‘getting’ NWalton’s thrust at all here.
You have to get yourself out of your %’s and arithmetic mindset and take yourself to a more intuitive place where it is not maths but ‘feel’ that is the dominant force.
Plenty people will back a horse that is slightly shorter than the figure they may have in mind on the basis that they are very keen on it. And still be successful.
The logic I would apply would be that subconsciously their gut-feel and experience is probably telling them that, even though it is 8/1 and the figure in their head is 10/1, there is probably some juice or margin still left at the lower price (an intuition based on experience). They are not constrained by a pre-determined fixed figure but are flexible in their thinking.
In addition, oftentimes nowadays, money, esp late money, can, and probably should, be factored into a view on a value price.
Say I fancy one, think 3/1 is about right, but see it punted in from 11/4 to 2/1. That can cause me to change my view on what the value price was in the first place. Late money can be more important than form. So, my 3/1 ‘head price’ can be fluid based on what I see in the market.
I do think you are missing the point of what NWalton is saying and taking a far too literal approach to the points he is making.nwalton has said “then do a tissue to around 100%”.
Is doing around a 100% book an “intuitive” way of doing things, David? Is that a “gut feel”?
If so then my way is an intuitive gut feel too.
Had he not said about percentages then I agree it could be intuitive – but he has.Value Is Everythingtbh What he may be doing is being too optimistic about the price for his getting 10/1 shot about his fancy. ie 8/1 would STILL be good value if the horse actually has a fair 7/1 chance of winning… And that is why he’s had some good results/profit. Like you, Mike and I said earlier, some who don’t even look for value will find it and therefore show a profit.
…But if that is the case then the thing about “around a 100% tissue” wouldn’t make sense. Why would he think it’s a 10/1 shot and back it at 8/1 after doing a book?
May be he thought had to say about a 100% book?
Do think it’s a bit strange talking about only backing horses that “will win” and yet in his threads backing 16/1 and 20/1 shots. Seemingly not backing shorter priced horses because they’re too short and instead backing outsiders. Sounds a value approach to me.
Come clean nwalton. Was this thread all done to wind me up?
Value Is EverythingIn addition, oftentimes nowadays, money, esp late money, can, and probably should, be factored into a view on a value price.
Say I fancy one, think 3/1 is about right, but see it punted in from 11/4 to 2/1. That can cause me to change my view on what the value price was in the first place. Late money can be more important than form. So, my 3/1 ‘head price’ can be fluid based on what I see in the market.Clutching at straws, David. He hasn’t said anything about the horse’s chance being changed due to a horse shortening. Just something he thinks is a 10/1 backed at 8’s.
I’ve been an advocate of this theory myself, though. Especially when the particular horse has run badly last time out but on best form has a better chance… And even more so if the trainer is now in better form. Could be 16/1 in the morning primarily because of a poor run last time out, and yet on best form would be a fair 4/1 shot. Therefore if shortening to 10/1 is worth a bet to find out. A case of the 10/1 being better value than the early 16/1 (when not knowing which way it’ll go). Shortening often tells you the horse is thought back to his best. So it is indeed best for prices to be fluid and got to react to everything.
Value Is EverythingGingersucker wrote:
Come clean nwalton. Was this thread all done to wind me up?
Strictly speaking Fool’s Day pranks should be executed before midday, but so good was NWalton’s that he can be forgiven for setting the trap as late as 19:44
Betlarge entered into the spirit of things at 20:07 with a curt and precise summary that really should have been the last word, ever, evermore, from here to eternity, but the cheeky naughty NW couldn’t let it lie and submitted an incendiary “now I can see where you are coming from Betlarge” which, as expected, caused the thread to descend into a 6-page mish-mash of recycled clap-trap
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If nwalton backs the 8/1 shots that should be 10/1 he is still getting value
as he is only backing the ones that he thinks will win and not the ones that won’t
a bad value winner can add value to all those great value losers if you can pick the decent bad value ones
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Clare Balding, who one might like to think knows a bit better, made a comment on the Boat Race coverage that seems appropriate to post here. The odds were quoted as 2/9 and 3/1 and she described the 3/1 as being ‘like 100/1 in a 40 horse race’. Surely 3/1 is 3/1 whether it’s a boat race, a horse race or Who Shot JR?
I hope she steamed into the 2/9 Cambridge which based on her comments would presumably qualify as value.
Yes, Richard; punters need to judge any 3/1 shot in the same way – whether it has a better or worse than 25% chance of winning. Equating 3/1 with 100/1 makes no sense in the literal sense of the words.
A bit of journalist’s exaggeration to make a point; Balding may have been speaking more fuguratively. (That’s if she knows the percentages anyway – is only a presenter and never a form/betting expert after all). For matches where humans take on humans in a uni vs uni contest the two rivals should (in theory) be fairly equally matched. Gap between 4/9 and 3/1 is comparitively wide and point she was trying to get across was – in the context of the race – Oxford should be seen as big outsiders.
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