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Ginger Tipster – I agree with everything you’ve said with respect to value. All the maths hangs together and the points you’re making are well constructed.
However, my suspicion is though, some punters don’t think like you’re suggesting they should or as you do. What I mean by that is: I reckon some people see a horse priced at 3-1 (25% chance of winning) but struggle to quantify their opinion about a horse’s chance of winning. They simply think “of all the horses in the race I think horse x has the biggest chance of winning” i.e. a relative measure devoid of explicit mathematical calculation but based on a quick tacitly based mental judgement from what they’ve seen on the track. Hence it is a more art based approach than the scientific based approach you’re espousing.
If you’re a bookmaker then clearly a scientific approach is a must since you’ll have to price up all races. But the difference is, being a bookmaker is typically a professsion whereas betting is often a form of entertainment for the punter.
Personally, when I bet I’m trying to adopt more a more scientific approach than I used to mainly to pressure-test my thinking before parting with my hard earned cash.
I agree with you CNC, there are many ways of betting and no particular way is wrong. eg One of my racing pals just wanted the thrill of backing a winner. ie Only interested in the next race and getting the winner of that race… And – because he knew very well doing it this way he had no chance of making an overall profit – there is absolutely nothing wrong with betting purely for the enjoyment of it. I think it’s great if punters want to treat betting as purely a recreational hobby in the same way as someone might get enjoyment from any other hobby – paying (betting) for that privilege. What other hobby lets you occasionally go home with more money than you came with?
…And if someone is looking to make a profit – as I say – a punter can make a profit/find value without actually looking for value.
However, to come up with statements that go totally against logic – the mathematics of betting – and yet portray it as a way of making a good profit… is downright dangerous if allowed to go unchallenged. Dangerous for both the person concerned and TRFers that think they can do the same thing and make the same profits/living from it.
eg This:
“I have got by for nearly 30 years doing this for a living”.
“Yes Jack firstly look for the winner when I believe have found that winner I DO have a price in my mind which would be happy to take(then do a tissue to around 100% ie now Betfair is around think you have to use that %)
On bigger price selections I am happy at times to take below that price(ie 8/1 for a 10/1 chance), while if a selection has a price (in my mind ) of 6/4 I would still probably back it at 5/4, no shorter, as i believe it will win”.It is important to understand how a bookmaker/odds compiler works. I know many TRFers will know, but I have to point it out for those that don’t.
An odds compiler works out a race with a 100% tissue and then adds a mark up. So in a competitive race:
If working out a horse has a fair 10/1 (9%) chance of winning, a bookmakers mark up is added to the fair 10/1 shot and OFFERS 9/1 (10%)… Because – over time -if the punter has a 9% strike rate of his 9/1 bets he/she will make a loss.
Also, if working out a horse has a fair 6/4 (40%) chance of winning, the bookmaker adds his mark up and offers 11/8 (42%). Because – over time – if a punter has a 40% strike rate at odds of 11/8 he/she will make a loss.…And yet if looking at how nwalton works: He is “happy at times to take below that price(ie 8/1 for a 10/1 chance)”. Happy to take 8/1 about a horse he himself believes has a fair 10/1 9% chance of winning – 8/1 actually needs just over an 11% strike rate just break even! And takes 5/4 about something he himself believes has a fair 6/4 40% chance of winning – 5/4 actually needs a 44.4% strike rate just to break even!
Don’t get me wrong, I would have no problem with anyone betting this way if they are satisfied with just backing winners and not concerned with making a profit. But can’t let someone make out it’s the way to make healthy profits. TRFers thinking of following this example and thinking they can also do “this for a living” – ie betting serious money and expecting good profit – should beware!!!
And plaese nwalton, if by some miracle you’re in profit then please for your own sake stop! Simple mathematics (facts) say it won’t last.Value Is EverythingCheck my old thread on daily lays and plays if it is dangerous the way i bet and then come back to me
again i know how bookmakers work my family were in the business for years and my son has held a license.
i have been making a profit since 1991 (except for two years) or maybe i am lying because i am jealous
Jesus you really hate anyone going against your rules of punting.
i am glad you are warning people about me as though i am some sort of liar.
check out the meydan thread as well
so are you saying a am lying about doing this for a living for nearly 30 years? you really are some piece of work.
No, I am saying if you have been betting for a living for 30 years, it can not be the way you’re portraying here, it is mathematically impossible.
Value Is EverythingI tell you what Ginger after that vile attack on me(wont make a song or dance about it) i will leave the forum.
Before i go would like to says thanks to the Meydan Mob, esp Jac for all her help and VTC from the hedgehopper fans.
Great forum people but i am not on here at the age of 60 to be called a liar and i could make people skint.Good luck to all
Ginger i have an opinion you dont backing 8 in 9 runner race. BYE
You can leave answer about my thread now i have gone
Ginge, your post is a bit long-winded so i’ve only selectively read it TBH but the price one person makes the horse doesn’t mean it’s the horses ‘true price’.
Hence most people trusting the BSP as the true indicator to the price of a horse and whether value has been taken or not.
However saying this i do appreciate that the person betting needs to have a good knowledge of the prices/value to make a profit so it does to an extent go hand in hand, especially if being able to bet BOG as Dahlia said above (i don’t use BOG for my P&L, if you rely on that bonus to make a LTP your betting has been very lucky).
You’re right with regards to continually selecting bad value, that’s all that he’s saying really, just in a long-winded mathematical sense.
Ginge isn’t saying you bet badly, I’m sure you beat the price much more than you don’t hence +P&LSometimes i think Ginge and James Willoughby are brothers..
You people like talking about value and value bets, but what about two things?
A: How much can you really put on a horse like Aurora’s Encore at 120/1 ?
A few quid, a few hundred or even a few thousand? What about the maximum liability on the BF market when placing such a bet? Why do the bookies restrict us to 25 pounds EW on early morning prices when they are in double figures? Are we betting for lunch money or to make a real HEALTHY profit?B: If there are so many bookmakers on the planet, why are al prices roughly the same?
Take a CL quarter final match for instance Liverpool-Porto 1/3 – 9/2 – 10/1. Most bookies work within the very same range, it’s not that anyone has his OWN OPINION and goes Liverpool 1/2 or Porto 20/1. They’re just copying each other. That’s not bookmaking……Taken a look at the two threads you mention, nwalton. Well done! But I see 16/1 shots, 20/1 shots etc that you’ve backed. How does that fit in with your only betting the one that “will win”?
You have indeed made good profits – by backing over-priced “value” of all prices. Probably better at it than me.!
Value Is EverythingGinge, price one person makes the horse doesn’t mean it’s the horses ‘true price’.
Exactly Kev, but what nwalton has been saying on this thread is he’s backing horses @ 8/1 that he himself believes are 10/1 chances… And backing @ 5/4 horses he himself believes are 6/4 chances. Therefore, even if nwalton is correct in his own assessment – he would be taking prices that won’t be good enough to make a profit.
Why would any punter (who’s trying to make a profit/living from the game) take prices that he himself believes are poor?
Value Is EverythingSometimes i think Ginge and James Willoughby are brothers..
Funny you should say that, think we do come from the same area. May be half-brothers.
Value Is EverythingA: How much can you really put on a horse like Aurora’s Encore at 120/1 ?
My bet wasn’t much, ER. Nowhere near the hundreds, let alone thousands. Just double figures which at that price is enough… And the bet was on betfair 119/1, so no trouble getting on. Tote price was 125/1 if I remember rightly, so didn’t get the price some got… And if only I’d put in an/some exactas!
Why do the bookies restrict us to 25 pounds EW on early morning prices when they are in double figures? Are we betting for lunch money or to make a real HEALTHY profit?
You’re bloody lucky to get anything on.
Value Is EverythingThere’s a question for the familia Ginge..
Ruby, anyone punting a three figure horse isn’t putting more than a grand or two tops. Even in the most liquid tournaments in the world, like the World Cup, i’d imagine you’d struggle to get 10G on a 100s shot.
Restrictions are either because you’ve proven you’re a long-term profitable gambler or the price is now below the one your trying to take hence potential arbitrage.
Or the race could be a bad e/w race, like a 8 runner field with a short fav, which is bad for the bookie and good for the punter.The bookies no longer have an opinion and go stand out prices because of the exchanges. The odds are tracked on the BF EX for Arbitrage purposes with all the big books.
Big field handicaps like the National, Wokingham etc. it should be easier to get on, as the BF EX price will very rarely be close to the bookie price as it’s a win only market hence no arb chance.B: If there are so many bookmakers on the planet, why are al prices roughly the same?
Take a CL quarter final match for instance Liverpool-Porto 1/3 – 9/2 – 10/1. Most bookies work within the very same range, it’s not that anyone has his OWN OPINION and goes Liverpool 1/2 or Porto 20/1. They’re just copying each other. That’s not bookmaking……Yes, it is bookmaking, ER. Bookies are not gamblers, their job is to offer what they think is slightly worse than what they see as its true chance of winning… And to use all ways of finding out those odds.
Do bookmakers still use that same odds-compiling firm? What was their name? Peter someone?
Lots of bookmakers use/d the same odds-compiler and then the bookies own odds-compiler looked at the odds provided and tweeked them… That was why odds were similar – not sure now – think some use exchanges to guide them. Although tbh I think all good odds-compilers will be around the same ball park figures most of the time and – if able to take bookies prices – you do sometimes see one out of line by around 10% – which is quite a lot in odds-compiling terms.Value Is EverythingDo bookmakers still use that same odds-compiling firm? What was their name?
The only one that comes to my mind is Betradar. And once there is an alert from Betradar, everyone else starts shortening or even suspending the event.
What I’m saying is that good old times are gone. The times when a bookmaker made a bit of a mistake and he didn’t realize until the event started.
I’d rather have a tenner EW on a 120/1 shot than a grand (which I could rarely afford) on an 6/5 shot.
You can get on Betfair where there is sometimes an early rick – where layers take their guide from a Racing Post betting forcast – which is in itself only one person’s opinion… And – although doing their best/good job – that Racing Post assessor hasn’t got enough time to make as accurate assessments as we do. Backing that early you haven’t got much liquidity, but can occasionally pay off.
Value Is Everything
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