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That would be the difference in mindset between a casual gambler and one who intends on making a long term profit and isn’t betting for fun
When a horse I think wins gets too short I just watch the race and hope it wins (or put it in some stupid multiple)
I would never back a 20/1 because I think it should be 10/1 if I think something else in the betting will win
But then I only bet smallish stakes and consider betting on the horses a bit of fun to be enjoyed, if I was betting large sums and attempted to make a living from it the way I bet would no doubt change drastically into a search for the supposed value in the race
Without doubt steeplechasing long term beating the price is very important. But I would throw in now days if you keep beating the price you get very quickly restricted,so backing winners comes back into play, or a pair pair of trainers to walk around the shops. You cannot constantly keep beating the price online without the barriers coming up
Thinking a horse will win does come into, if I thought a horse can’t win and had him in at 20/1 because I can get 25/1 would not send me rushing out to back it
Yes I do sometimes think 5/1 chance can’t win even though percentages says it can, do I get it wrong, yes of course ( many times)I do but that’s how I workTalking of percentages and that. Not that i know the stats and things, but would anyone be confident to take even money on a certain horse to even complete the Grand National course ?
Surely first factor is finding the winner,or what you think will win. Or are we saying that is to simplistic?
I really believe value is overused saying in racing now days.You here people say Frankel will win the gns but so and so is the value bet, I just don’t get that if you think Frankel will win. If the price is not your cup of tea, don’t bet.More often than not a horse doesn’t turn out to be a Frankel NW, that’s probably why people were looking to a swing against him in the 2000G?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!In a two horse race, if believing horse A has three times the chance of B, then you’d believe horse A has a fair 1/3 chance and horse B a fair 3/1. However, if horse A is available only @ 2/9 and horse B is available @ 4/1… Horse A is shorter than your idea of its true chance and Horse B is available at bigger/better than your opinion of its price. Therefore, horse B is the value / a worthwhile bet despite believing it to have a three times worse chance than the favourite.
Value Is EverythingTalking of percentages and that. Not that i know the stats and things, but would anyone be confident to take even money on a certain horse to even complete the Grand National course ?
Yes.
Value Is EverythingTalking of percentages and that. Not that i know the stats and things, but would anyone be confident to take even money on a certain horse to even complete the Grand National course ?
Yes.
30 fences to be jumped at a decimal price of 1.02337 equals a payout of Even money or 2.0 if all 30 fences are negotiated and the horse completes the race. I’m finding it difficult to spot the value there…..
Good question blotchy, how many on here could give ten horses to get round at Evs a pop and make a, profit on Saturday.
That could be a nice little competition
Not a bet id take botchy, too many variables in the race, horses not completing/being brought down by other horses and jockeys mistakes amongst alot of other things, its more profound in this race in particular, no horse is a evs shot to complete this course its very poor “value” if thats your angle.
To put it simply, a horses jumping could be perfect and they probably still dont have an evs shot of completing.
Not sure about percentages but I think you would need about 6 out of the ten to make a, profit
Don’t know if bookmakers still group around four horses together and offer a price for all to finish? For good reason they used to deliberately include a poor jumper/stayer or poorly handicapped horse.
With Botchy’s question all you need is to name a particularly good jumper who is sure to act on the ground, stays the trip and well enough handicapped… ie highly unlikely to get too far behind and be pulled up if not good enough. For sure there’s always a chance it’ll get brought down, but the number of horses brought down is not a significant number and some jockeys are better at jumping/keeping out of trouble.
I’d take evens Tiger Roll finishing.
Value Is EverythingThinking a horse will win does come into, if I thought a horse can’t win and had him in at 20/1 because I can get 25/1 would not send me rushing out to back it
If you thought a horse couldn’t win, why would you have him in at 20-1? That shows you think it can win! Unlikely, but it can win.
Ultimately, the purest concept of value is that there is a ‘value’ price for everything. Realistically, most of us will back a horse, a dog, a team that we ‘fancy’ at what we consider a ‘fair’ price. This is still making a value-based judgement and if that judgement is accurate we will win long-term, if it isn’t, we won’t.
Mike
was just throwing a price out there betlarge, i said once on here and GT picked me up on it that I thought a horse was a million to win, which means I believe it has no chance. I am a form man and i believe at times(in my mind) after going through the form book a 7/4 just cant win (i am not that stupid to think i might be wrong) so i then have my starting point to work around the race. It seems to work for me instead of saying well it can win its a 7/2 chance so its got a 22% chance if i think it cant win(by working hard on the form book) i am not bothered about the 22%.
So as you see am not governed by % , am led by what I believe will win, as said it seems to work for me.NW, if you are making money then you are finding value! You may not be actively searching for it or thinking of it in percentage terms but that is irrelevant.
Possibly excluding freak wins of life-changing amounts, all long-term profitable betting is by definition ‘value’ betting. It has to be. I.e. you are consistently betting horses at bigger prices than they should be. If you weren’t, you wouldn’t win. Whether these are at 20-1 or 1-20 is irrelevant. Whether you back one selection in a race or ten is irrelevant. They are simply winning more often than their prices suggest they should.
Ginge is more ‘scientific’ in his approach, but that’s just a difference in methodology. There’s no right way or wrong way here, the end goal is the same: to turn a profit.
All long-term profitable betting is ‘value’ betting.
Mike
i have not been talking about value as in getting 10s about an 8s shot, what my point is if you think a horse (i know people dont like this saying) WILL win but you dont like the price, where is the value in backing another horse in the race instead of the horse you think WILL win? Maybe getting old but cant see where that is value.
I have said before if, have a price of 10s in my head about my selection and the books price it up at 8s,sometimes still take that price so as such i am not getting value,but am backing who i believe will win.
Now if it was lower than 8s wouldn’t get involved but certainly wouldn’t be looking for the ‘value’ in the race because can’t get the price wanted.
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