- This topic has 38 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
Apologies if thread posted before but could not find. With Ryan Moore booked and lightning unlikely to strike twice with regards to Murtagh stealing the race, think Wonder of Wonders is the banker of the weekend.
I think WoW should be fav but it’s quite a strong field plus a few pacemakers so looks like it should be run at a fair gallop. So not possible to eliminate Dancing Rain who likes a fast race.
Each way value appears to be Banimpire, assuming there are at least 8 starters. But not sure there will be as there are three no-hopers in the field and the weather is changeable.
I backed Wonder Of Wonders to win the Epsom Oaks and was denied by a briiliant ride from Johnny Murtagh. I said immediately afterwards that Aidan O’Brien’s filly would gain her revenge at The Curragh.
Nothing’s changed in that respect.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Banimpire for me, typically tough Jim Bolger filly. There doesn’t look to be much between these and her battling qualities will without doubt stand her in good stead tomorrow. Soft ground could hinder her turn of foot, however.
Bolger tends to over race his horses and so I believe that he won’t be a factor in the Irish Oaks.Banimpire has already peaked.
I think the winner of the English Oaks will come out on top again and prove it was no fluke at Epsom. 4/5 the fav versus 4/1 the winner of the English Oaks! Interesting.
Haggas has his yard in great form as well so that will do for me.
Martin
No consensus here!
I think Blue Bunting can win it – obviously didn’t handle track at Epsom and I think she has more speed than the rest. I spose WOW is very unexposed too, but any of the top 4 could win and I think E/W 9/2 BB (Hills) is a cracking price to gain revenge.
Zip
- Total Posts 17716
I’m with Zip on this one.
There’s bound to be a strong pace, and that may find Dancing Rain wanting for stamina.
Blue Bunting has 4l to find with Wonder Of Wonders, but hung like a baboon all the way down the Epsom camber, and will relish this more conventional track and the softer ground. Had much the best form going into that race and will stay forever, so WH’s 9/2 is a more than fair price, imo.Wonder of Wonders had every chance to beat Dancing Rain at Epsom but didnt. To my mind she along with DR got the run of the race and with a furlong to run she came upsides Dancing Rain and it looked like she had the winning of the race if she was good enough. To my mind DR outstayed her and i cannot see any reason to suggest Wonder of Wonders will reverse the form, also DR is likely to handle soft much better so it wouls surprise me if WoW beat her.
Of the others Banimpire is interesting, she seems to improve with racing and showed she handled cut in the ground in Ribblesdale, i see her running Dancing Rain close but perhaps just falling short.
Blue Bunting would look to have outstanding claims considering where she came from in the Oaks and the Curragh is likely to suit her better but im not so sure that she will relish the conditions as much as other believe, thats just my opinion but on ability alone she should be in the first 3.1st. Dancing Rain
2nd. Banimpire
3rd. Blue Bunting
It will be interesting to see how ‘BB’ fares at the Curra…
Zarooni has a good record of hitting the board when he’s ultra positive in his comments/interviews as he was nearly proved right with ‘Biondetti’ yesterday @ Maisons!
Wow is justifiably favourite but is way too short in the Market, couldn’t decide who is most likely to beat her so have layed her instead.
Would like to see dancing rain win, she didn’t
get the credit she deserved for her oaks win and oaks winners have good record of following up and winning this race.Imo, there’s not a single shred of evidence as to why WOW is favourite – it makes no logical sense at all. Maybe she had a problem before or at Epsom, and the quite unreal weight of cash that has forced her price into the ridiculous indicates something is up. But that’s straying into fantasy land a bit and we know the best horse here is DR, who slapped the comedy-favourite silly; SHE should be fav here and instead is 4 times the price. Don’t think any of us would mind if these scenarios kept repeating themselves, whatever happens today
Logic:
Having backed Wonder Of Wonders at 25/1 for the English Oaks, you won’t be surprised I think she should have won had it not been for the funereal pace. Big brute of a filly who’s exceptionally well bred which leads us to believe further improvement is likely. Would’ve been suited by a greater test of stamina too. Probability suggests she’s a better filly than we saw at Epsom.
Dancing Rain probably grossly flattered. Allowed a significant lead when going so slow, right place at the right time for the sprint for home. More speedily bred than most in that race. So added to her positional advantage, the speed she has was an additional advantage at Epsom. It might be she has the stamina and is equally effective in a truly run race, but that is yet to be proven and probabilities suggest she won’t be as good in these conditions given the likely pace.
Blue Bunting got a terrible ride. Broke well but reined back despite the pace. Tried to make ground up in the fastest part of the race. Barged Havant and then Frankie dropped his hands, missing out on third. Best to ignore that run completely. We know she’s a Group 1 animal from the 1000 Guineas victory, settles well and breeding is much more condusive to middle-distances. Probably capable of much better than she showed at Epsom.
After the English Oaks, I expected to be on Wonder Of Wonders today, but bookmakers have in my opinion totally over-reacted by making her odds-on. Not surprised she’s drifted. Yes, she has by far the best chance of winning, but not by that far. I’d probably want around 7/4 or more.
The two horses I believe are value are:
Blue Bunting 9/2 Though a little worried after seeing her dull coat on ATR this week. And Baimpire 9/1. Who isn’t much behind the big three on form.Value Is EverythingHad a few bob at 5/2 on Wonder of Wonders after the Oaks with my local bookie. I think i got poor value then, nevermind now when i see she is evens especially with Blue Bunting running.
- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
Fail to see what bets you had has to do with logic?Edit: I’d also be interested where the 9/2 was available at 12.31?
The logic is the analysis.
I backed Blue Bunting
1st
@ 9/2 and Banimpire
2nd
@ 9/1 earlier (both with VC) in the day Reet, on my Daily Lays And Plays thread. Put a very similar post earlier on the Horse Racing section too. Had no idea she’d been backed so much in a short time before my post on here. Wish I’d got up earlier, heard she was 11/2 with Ladbrokes this morning.
So if you’re nit-picking, may be I should’ve said "were" instead of "are" Value. But it was in no way after-timing as your words seem to suggest.
I don’t care though, I tipped and backed the first two home.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.