Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Irish National 2026
- This topic has 49 replies, 27 voices, and was last updated 3 weeks, 5 days ago by
Ex RubyLight.
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- April 4, 2026 at 20:47 #1762003
Showurappreciation
VF x
April 4, 2026 at 22:19 #1762013Not really a lucky race for me, but I’ve had the winner a few times. So it’s a token bet on SEARCH FOR GLORY, THE JUKEBOX KID, ONE BIG BANG and SHOWURAPPRECIATION
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.April 5, 2026 at 11:39 #1762125Shecouldbeanything has been put away for this and telling Kennedy has picked her , e.w play with old Duffle Coat who’s been struggling but a proper test will be right up his street
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
April 5, 2026 at 12:49 #1762135Better Times Ahead 16/1 win only
April 5, 2026 at 12:49 #1762136Will Duffle Coat have a hood?
April 5, 2026 at 12:50 #1762137Here’s Claude’s verdict (AI using Horseracebase Trends)
FINAL SELECTIONS
🥇 1st Selection — WIN: Kiss Will (FR)
Jockey: P. Townend | Trainer: W.P. Mullins | OR: 139 | Weight: 10-11 | Age: 6 | Odds: 13.0
The trends point strongly toward Kiss Will. OR 139 is one of the productive rating brackets (1 win, 3 places — 25% place rate), and the placed-horse data significantly reinforces what looks modest in win-only figures. Age 6 has a 10% win rate. Weight 10-11 has produced 2 placed horses. Mullins as trainer has a 6% win rate with 9 places from 31 runners — the best placed-horse record of any trainer in the data. Townend rides, and he has 1 win and 3 places from 9 Irish Grand National runs — the placed profile adding weight to his credentials. Days since last run (25) puts him in the C bracket, the most productive. The odds of 13/1 sit just inside the H bracket (17/2–12/1) which is winless, but he is very close to the productive G bracket (13/2–8/1) — see market flag below.🥈 2nd Selection — EACH-WAY: Goraibhmaithagat (IRE)
Jockey: Harry Cobden | Trainer: C.A. Murphy | OR: 137 | Weight: 10-9 | Age: 6 | Odds: 15.0
OR 137 is the single strongest rating bracket in the trends — 3 winners and 13% strike rate. Age 6 has produced 2 winners (10%). Days since run (29) sits in bracket C, the most productive. Weight 10-9 has only 1 placed horse but the OR bracket is compelling enough to override this softly. Murphy has a small dataset in this race but C.A. Murphy is an emerging handler at this level. Cobden is a proven big-race jockey. At 15/1 the each-way case is strong given the OR alignment.🥉 3rd Selection — WATCH: The Enabler (IRE)
Jockey: D.J. Gilligan | Trainer: Gordon Elliott | OR: 136 | Weight: 10-8 | Age: 7 | Odds: 26.0
The weight bracket is the compelling factor here — 10-8 has produced 2 wins at 18%, the highest rate of any weight carried by more than a handful of runners. OR 136 has 1 win and 2 places. Age 7 has the best absolute win count (4). The Elliott negative trainer record (1 win from 69 runs) and the 26/1 odds (bracket J — 1 win, 1%) are significant concerns, but the 10-8 weight and age alignment make him a legitimate each-way watch if you are looking for a longer-priced option.⚠️ MARKET CONDITION FLAGS
Kiss Will: Currently 13/1 — sitting in odds bracket H (17/2–12/1) which has produced zero wins from 36 runners. If he shortens to 6/1 or below by race time (bracket F or G), his profile becomes significantly more compelling and he would represent a strong win selection. Watch the market closely.
The Jukebox Kid: Currently 5.5/1 — sits in bracket F (9/2–6/1), the joint-strongest odds bracket (29% win rate). Market position 1 (favourite) also has a 20% win rate. The OR (144) is a concern with 0 wins at that rating, and days since run (51) is in bracket D (2 wins, 2%). The odds and market position are right; the OR and days bracket work against him. A conditional contender — the odds profile is correct but the rating history is a genuine negative.April 5, 2026 at 17:02 #1762152Having moaned about JP’s numbers in the race I must confess I’m most drawn to two of his and at the prices it’ll be Sa Majeste and Better Times Ahead for me. Will be fun trying to pick them out of the crowd lol
April 5, 2026 at 18:07 #1762155I’ve gone for an each way double of Flicker of Hope in this with Twig next week at Aintree.
April 5, 2026 at 19:00 #1762161Main bets:
Showurappreciation 16/1 WIN
Flicker Of Hope 20/1 EWSavers:
The Enabler 33/1 EW
Shanbally Kid 40/1 EW
Search For Glory 20/1 EWApril 5, 2026 at 19:10 #1762162Added
Hartur D’Arc each way at 90/1 (Lads boost)
April 5, 2026 at 20:33 #1762165Added:
Kurasso Blue 33/1 EW (unexposed, going the right way, stable in form, hopefully more to come)
Better Times Ahead 16/1 WIN only (two course wins could be helpful)April 5, 2026 at 22:30 #1762170Search for Glory was my bet in the Ultima … very unlucky there, he was running a big race. Hope will be more lucky tomorrow.
Search for Glory 22/1
April 6, 2026 at 07:18 #1762174Banbridge, Gerri Colombre, Spillane’s Tower and Firefox are all doubly engaged. Along with L’Homme Presse could see the running order down to Pied Piper on the list.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.April 6, 2026 at 10:35 #1762184This looks tougher than usual, but I’ve ended up with Shecouldbeanything 33-1 ew, and Hartur D’Arc 125-1 ew, and both of them are 6 plcs
April 6, 2026 at 12:30 #1762188Ews on
The Enabler
Joystick
Sa MajesteThe first two had decent runs at Cheltenham and trip fine for all I think
April 6, 2026 at 12:56 #1762190Taken 3:
C’est ta Chance 18s win
O’Toole 45s win
Weveallbeencaught sp ew 6 placesApril 6, 2026 at 13:10 #1762191Soldier In Milan 15-2.
The more I know the less I understand.
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