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The betting looks a bit one sided, what are the odds that Gigginstown House Stud win the race.
3.40 Leopardstown
Road To Riches 157
Valseur Lido 151
On His Own 147
Carlingford Lough 145
First Lieutenant 141
Foxrock 140
Gilgamboa 137
Wounded Warrior 137
Sir Des Champs 136
Fine Rightly 115Mike.
Valseur lido is the best each way bet of the year. The only small worry is that they might try to protect his mark for the grand national
Road To Riches is the one to beat, but I wouldn’t take odds-on. For sure has the best form and consistent, but hasn’t run for almost three months and missed engagements. First Lieutenant doesn’t win often enough to warrent consideration. Of those who chased home Don Poli in the Lexus I prefer Foxrock, who might still have a little improvement in him. However, suspicion still remains they’re all flattered by their proximity to the winner that day. On His Own shouldn’t be good enough to win a race like this and now twelve, may be on the decline. Sir Des Champs and Carlingford Lough have good form if going back far enough. Both didn’t give any encouragement, beaten over 21 and 34 lengths respectively. There are worse 100/1 shots than Fine Rightly, started favourite for a big handicap last time. Looks outclassed but still prospects of improvement, question is whether it’ll be at this trip? Travelled so well last time, is hardly crying out for this. Gilgamboa seemed to come through to win his race last time but didn’t find much. That was in a well run race at this course and distance. Before that had a progressive profile, could yet show further improvement if held on to for longer. I’ve had a small win bet on him @ 10/1 (not worth each way when a doubtful stayer). Valseur Lido does look like a good each way bet. Thought best of the Mullins trio. Well held last time out when falling at the final fence. But that was in the best chase seen this season at Kempton. Had finished 12 lengths 2nd to Djakadam in the John Durkan on reappearance, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Much closer to the winner at the last. Only a 7 year old and possibly more to come at this trip (needs to be to beat an in form Road To Riches). I’ve backed him each way @ 10/1. However – for me – best value in the race is the stable (and owner) companion to the favourite, Wounded Warrior. On breeding (By St Leger winner Shantou out of a Broadsword mare and a full brother to 3m hurdle winner Sword of Destiny) seems all stamina. Staying on to take 3rd late on in the RSA and this his first start at 3m this season. Chased home an admittedly below form Don Cossack at 2m4f on reappearance. 20/1 massively under estimates his chance imo, another each way bet.
Gilgamboa 10/1 win
Valseur Lido 10/1 each way
Wounded Warrior 20/1 each wayValue Is EverythingOn a very definitely non betting day for me, I’ve crumbled, and went with Carlingford Lough 28’s
Road to Riches out to 6/4
Almost tempted to back him but have Carlingford Lough backed e/w as i think he’s overpriced at 25/1 if he’s not out for a prep for the National having won this last year.Plenty support by good judges here for the winner, given his price – congratulations gents
The betting looks a bit one sided, what are the odds that Gigginstown House Stud win the race.
3.40 Leopardstown
Road To Riches 157
Valseur Lido 151
On His Own 147
Carlingford Lough 145
First Lieutenant 141
Foxrock 140
Gilgamboa 137
Wounded Warrior 137
Sir Des Champs 136
Fine Rightly 115Mike.
Your figure for the winner seemed much more accurate, given the result, than Topspeed – who had him at one of the lowest I’ve ever seen – 27. I know you have your own system, but how can D Edwards (assuming it is still him) be so far out?
Road to Riches out to 6/4
Almost tempted to back him but have Carlingford Lough backed e/w as i think he’s overpriced at 25/1 if he’s not out for a prep for the National having won this last year.Well done Fran and VTC
Do think they ran the race for CL, had it been an even gallop think you’d see a different result.
What were Mr P Mullins, Heskin and Cooper doing going so fast? Cooper was a very promising young jockey but doesn’t seem to have progressed.
I backed Vasleur Lido, but not sure he would’ve won anyway.I wouldn’t rule out Road To Riches for Cheltenham. Looked rusty. Didn’t jump like we know he can and did better than the other front runners. That form means nothing other than Valseur Lido has probably improved.
Value Is EverythingPlenty support by good judges here for the winner, given his price – congratulations gents
I second that, very well done guys
On his Own actually ran very well considering he made 3 bad errors and recovered from two of them. Valseur Lido would have won I reckon. Ruby is just gone to the dogs altogether
Your figure for the winner seemed much more accurate, given the result, than Topspeed – who had him at one of the lowest I’ve ever seen – 27. I know you have your own system, but how can D Edwards (assuming it is still him) be so far out?
The problem lies with the Racing Posts standard times for Leopardstown, for example the 2m5f chase standard time is 25.0s out to my standard times.
If you look back at the speed figures for the lexus chase going back to 2010, the winners have speed figures like you pointed out around 27, and I was awarding them up around 140+.Standard times:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shareObject=194f4b16-0ff1-8753-2530-079536e8cd56Take a look at the leopardstown standard times, my standard times are down the side.
Another racecourse who’s standard times are out is Punchestown, and there are lots of other corrections I have made, notably the 2m4f chase standard at Navan, I have it out by 20.0s.
With the problem of the extra yardage being added to race distances the problem has got even worse, I sent Dave Edwards and Simon Rowlands my constant “15” method which corrects the problem.
Mike.
Thanks, Mike. High time they started using your method! Is it just Irish tracks this affects?
Well on Road to Riches display in the Irish Gold Cup his chance of winning at Cheltenham as gone out the window.
Ruby would have won the race if he had not Fallen at the last.
But Carlingford Lough the winner he was a lot way behind with two fences to go and the leaders were not slowing down,
So where as this horse suddenly got this pace from that it as not show before.
Strange result least said apart the PRATS in the Steward room.I can’t agree Banshe, having watched the race a few times I’m confident Carlingford would’ve picked up VL regardless ………..surely the jockeys went off way too fast today….what were they thinking??fine rightly third??crazy……
Thanks, Mike. High time they started using your method! Is it just Irish tracks this affects?
The problem is everywhere, notably at Fakenham where you had to add up to 257 yards to the advertised race distances.
Yesterday two of the chases were run over an extra 60yds, using linear curve regression, this equates to an extra 4.0s being added to the standard time.Leopardstown (IRE)
06-Feb-16
RACE WINNER DIST RATING
12:55 Footpad 2m 106
01:25 Who´s That 2m2f 75
01:55 Bleu Et Rouge 2m2f 121
02:30 Outlander 2m5½f 90
03:05 Blazer 2m 79
03:40 Carlingford Lough 3m½f 123
04:15 You Must Know Me 3m½f 93
04:45 Sunni May 2m 23Mike.
Almost tempted to back him but have Carlingford Lough backed e/w as i think he’s overpriced at 25/1 if he’s not out for a prep for the National having won this last year.
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