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Just looking at the Curragh winning times from the weekend now. The fairly exposed and listed class mare Emily Blake would have finished 2nd in the 2000 Guineas. The thoroughly exposed handicapper Philario would have been even closer.
Still cant get overly enthusiastic about Mastercraftsman (who had the run of the race and the stand rail).
Are you adjusting fro WFA there CR? Emily Blake actually ran quicker than Mastercraftsman according to the Post: she clocked 1 47.61 against the Guineas 1 48.16. Philario was 1 48.65.
My mistake carvills, read the raw times in seconds incorrectly. Puts Mastercraftsman’s performance in an even lesser light imo. Also interesting that Murtagh described him as a "very good horse" after the race, he uses the term "high class" most of the time for the really good ones. I’m with Bulwark on taking him on at a short price for the St James.
Ditto that. All depends on whether Silver Frost turns up really. If not, definitely get your money on Delegator.
Haven’t given up on Delegator over a mile. Spencer needs to stop panicking and hold onto him till the 1 furlong pole, then unleash the turn of foot. He simply cant sustain the acceleration for any longer than that imo.
I think he’ll show colossal improvement from HQ at Ascot as well. If you watch all his races/read the RP comments, he’s come miles across the course as soon as he’s gone into the dip.
However, there was a certain horse last year who kept getting beaten by Henrythenavigator and didn’t get his head in front til August when ridden much more positively…
Ditto that. All depends on whether Silver Frost turns up really. If not, definitely get your money on Delegator.
Silver Frost is another who IMO is bred to, and looks to love, softer ground, interestingly also on saturday, on heavy ground Verglas had:
Leahurst 14-1
– a decent second in the opener at Haydock, and:
Wrong Answer 7-1 winner
– won the listed 2yo race at the curragh beating Air Chief Marshall
I followed that Highest Honour line, which Verglas hails from and it threw up
Stormy Weather
33-1 3rd
Dukedom 25-1
unplaced 4th
(All prices were early prices)
IMO the Highest Honour line are specialist on softer conditions. Numide over Hurdles is also on this line, as is Medermit, and Numide is almost like clockwork on soft ground, but very hard to follow without it. Likewise I wouldnt be expecting a great deal from Silver Frost on gd-fm come ascot, and IMO if Freddie Head brings over Naaqoos I would strongly fancy him to go well at ascot.
Delegator has to be forgiven that bad run and (if the curragh run hasnt taken it’s toll) he would look perfectly geared for ascot. Think Stoutes horse Evasive was far from disgraced at Newmarket after an interupted prep and clearly likes gd-fm, if he were to line up at ascot he could be a forgotten horse.
I believe that he’ll get 7f but Stoute’s obviously not sure since he earmarked the Jersey for him as well. Also I hate to go on about the trends but horses that go directly to the St. James’ from the Guineas don’t have a great record.
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Breeding, leg action, musculature, etc. etc. are all very inexact sciences, and none accurate predictors of a horses preferences. Even full brothers and sisters have been known to have different going or distance preferences, and certainly many high-actioned horses have proven better on faster ground than softer, so the only real test has to be racecourse performance.
Mastercraftsman has shown he acts on fast ground in the Guineas, where he also showed,as every single piece of his overall form does
, that he needs a stiff test to be seen at his best. Fit or not, the way he ran at Newmarket clearly illustrated he would have been much more of a force had the race been over further, so it is specious to suggest he didn’t act on the ground.
Likewise Delegator not acting on the ground is another myth.Nothing was travelling better than he 2 out at the Curragh, hardly the sign of a horse not coping with the ground, and he simply ran out of stamina, exactly as his fast ground Guineas form suggested he would.
By all means back Delegator for the St James Palace on fast ground, but be warned, if Coolmore decide to run Mastercraftsman, they’ll also ensure it’s a proper test, and Delegator will again be found wanting. And that’s not supposition, but real racecourse evidence, and you can take it to the bank.
To be honest, Reet, I’d expect that to suit Delegator a lot more than Mastercraftsman. I really think Delegator would be quite devastating over 10f and I’m struggling to come up with any reasons why Mastercraftsman would beat him on good to firm over a mile.
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To be honest, Reet, I’d expect that to suit Delegator a lot more than Mastercraftsman. I really think Delegator would be quite devastating over 10f and I’m struggling to come up with any reasons why Mastercraftsman would beat him on good to firm over a mile.
Then you’d better have a word with Brian Meehan, who is considering him for the July Cup.
Don’t say you weren’t warned!
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I doubt if there was ever a horse who acts 100% equally as well on all surfaces.
To adapt from soft to good/firm a horse will change stride to compensate and surely wont get exactly the same result over a distance of ground.
Mastercraftsman has won on different surfaces but which is his best is guesswork.
His best perfomance prior to his most recent was said to be over 6f when he beat Art Connoisseur. I could be argued that the runner up has let that form down badly but the third Bushranger had won prior to that race and followed up with 2 excellent wins in the Prix Morny and the Middle Park Stakes.
Last season when Mastercraftsman did run on surfaces with give from good to yielding to heavy he won but he was far from impressive scraping home in two photo finishes and winning the other by 1/2 length.
His only defeat was in France, again when the ground was on the soft side.
Granted the ground was on the fast side in the Guineas but I think time will tell the horse wasn’t anywhere near 100% that day.
For me I think it’s best to totally disregard his English Guineas run and look at his performance in the Irish 2,000 Guineas as that of a horse who has improved beyond anyones expectations.
Rayeni and Soul City may not be the best in the land they are very good animals and surley on a par or better than Shaweel who ran him to a sh.head on heavy last season.
For me all things considered Mastercraftsman’s performace only proves he has improved and not that he has prefernece for heavy ground.
I think we will find that should he get good to firm ground in the St James’s Palace he will be the bet of the flat season. I saw he was 3’s with Cahmans but that’s gone which is hardly surprising.
Some people are saying that because of the heavy ground the Mile at the Curragh rode like a 1m2f race and Mastercraftsman might be better going for the Eclipse. I personally dont agree with that as Murtagh more or less dictated the pace like his stable companion never existed.
If it did ride like a 1m2f race and I had backed Fame and Glory for the Derby, based on his win on Mourayan, I would be coercerned how good thsat from is. The third horse was beaten twice as far by Mastercraftsman as he was by Fame and Glory
I think you are having a mare here fists, if you lump anywhere near Mastercraftsman at ascot and there isnt cut, you’ll be in trouble. Horses dont adapt to any ground, some horses can throw in decent performances on various surfaces over various trips, but largely horses are actioned differently the same way as humans.
If you try walking 5 miles on a tarmac road you shouldnt have too much bother, if you try to do it across a bog you’ll soon find that the muscles you are using are much different (probably closer to walking up stairs for 5 miles).
Horses are simliar in that way in that they have different muscle make ups and where some tend to handle almost anything, a lot tend to specialise on one surface or another. Danehill Dancer as I have said before IMO 99% of the time specialise with cut, and for this reason he almost always tends to do well in the early season races in Ireland and the UK. Interestingly, if you notice how the guineas have panned out, at newmarket on gd-fm Danheill Dancers didnt get a look in in the 1,000 or 2,000, then in france (on softer conditions) he had a fast finishing 2nd in the pouliches and a fast finishing 3rd in the poulains, then on heavy at the curragh, he has won the irish 1,000 and 2,000 guineas. You can see the pattern regarding cut here.
A few seasons ago I noticed that Danehill Dancers are almost always best with cut, and in big races and higher level handicaps, you can go against them everytime on gd-fm and will very seldom ever be caught out. Mastercraftsmans win in last years phoenix being the only such example that sticks in my mind over the last few years.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzW0r9MzHLU
If you look at last years Prix Jean Luc, and how mastercraftsman moves along side Naaqoos. He clearly isnt a top of the ground horse. His front legs very much dig in into the ground, where Naaqoos (who looks to have a fast ground action) is reaching out trying to grab the ground, and kicking it back powerfully with his back legs. This is how faster ground actioned horses dominate on that surface, because they can profect themselves along so much faster with such an action, however on a slower surface this action will slow them down and tire them out. On softer ground a horse who moves like Mastercraftsman will always be in his element, as his action is the much more economical on that surface.
Despite what the RP published as the going description for that day you can see by the way that Naaqoos is projecting himself along on top of the ground that it isnt any worse than good ground.
I think you should do some more research Bully. Rock of Gibralter who won on soft, good, and won the 2000 guineas on Good to Firm was Danehill.
You’ve disgarded the Pheonix very lightly, a race that made him undisputed European 2yo of the year.
If Mastercraftsman has strode out any better in that race he would have taken off. You can clearly see he was very much at home on the ground and he does not have a particulary high rounded action. He is a very long striding horse who has a lot of vertical head movement when he runs. Try looking lower
As far as France goes the ground doesn’t come into it. It is generally believed that the horse was over the top in France after 4 wins/races 3 of which were very tough.
I can’t for the life of me think why anyone in their right mind would fancy Delegator to turn the tables at ascot no matter what the ground is.
Delegator came there with every chance in the Guineas and if anything didn’t quite stay. He hasn’t ran a message on ground his trainer thought he would handle again like a total non stayer. His trainer is talking about him running over shorter distances. I really doubt that Mastercraftsman or RVW were quite 100% that day and the rumours were right. The the third is no way a miler in your wildest dreams.
I can’t see Delegator being good enough to be winning any Group 1 over a mile this year or the next. Least of all the St James’s Palace Stakes.
There is no way on this earth if Mastercraftsman stays sound and turns up 100% I can see Delegator get anywhere near him on any ground IMO.
This horse has made massive improvement in a short space of time. He has left his Newmarket run miles behind IMO and will be hard to beat no matter where he runs now.
If he had turned up at the UK Guineas the way he turned out in the irish TAPK would still be drunk celebrating and I would have egg all over my face. Gawd forbid!!!
For the record Danehill Dancer has produced fast ground performers like Choisir, Where Or When, Alexander Tango, Miss Beatrix, Arapaho Miss, Private Steer, Light Fantastic etc….all Group 1 winners on fast ground. And of course Mastercraftsmans win too unless you just ignore that….
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I knew that
<<<<<<<<<<fookin liar For the record Danehill Dancer has produced fast ground performers like Choisir, Where Or When, Alexander Tango, Miss Beatrix, Arapaho Miss, Private Steer, Light Fantastic etc….all Group 1 winners on fast ground. And of course Mastercraftsmans win too unless you just ignore that….
And such is the downfall of reeding analysis, because when you try to suggest a trend, you will always get people quoting the freak occurences.
Try this for a season Aiden, and you’ll see how seldom it is proven wrong.
Danehill Dancer + Cut = good chance
Danehill Dancer + Gd-Fm = Very little chance….
Obviously it has to be in competitive races such as handicaps and pattern races (as the difference in class in lower grade races and maidens cant really be used). Even better next time a danehill dancer wins a competitive race on gd-fm, why not start a thread and then follow it up the next time etc, etc…
I guarantee this works, unless I have just been having a lucky couple of years using this method.
I think you should do some more research Bully. Rock of Gibralter who won on soft, good, and won the 2000 guineas on Good to Firm was Danehill.
You’ve disgarded the Pheonix very lightly, a race that made him undisputed European 2yo of the year.
If Mastercraftsman has strode out any better in that race he would have taken off. You can clearly see he was very much at home on the ground and he does not have a particulary high rounded action. He is a very long striding horse who has a lot of vertical head movement when he runs. Try looking lower
As far as France goes the ground doesn’t come into it. It is generally believed that the horse was over the top in France after 4 wins/races 3 of which were very tough.
I can’t for the life of me think why anyone in their right mind would fancy Delegator to turn the tables at ascot no matter what the ground is.
Delegator came there with every chance in the Guineas and if anything didn’t quite stay. He hasn’t ran a message on ground his trainer thought he would handle again like a total non stayer. His trainer is talking about him running over shorter distances. I really doubt that Mastercraftsman or RVW were quite 100% that day and the rumours were right. The the third is no way a miler in your wildest dreams.
I can’t see Delegator being good enough to be winning any Group 1 over a mile this year or the next. Least of all the St James’s Palace Stakes.
There is no way on this earth if Mastercraftsman stays sound and turns up 100% I can see Delegator get anywhere near him on any ground IMO.
This horse has made massive improvement in a short space of time. He has left his Newmarket run miles behind IMO and will be hard to beat no matter where he runs now.
If he had turned up at the UK Guineas the way he turned out in the irish TAPK would still be drunk celebrating and I would have egg all over my face. Gawd forbid!!!
I’m just warning you fists, I wouldnt like to see you out of pocket. I have been 100% right with MCM this season (place lay win the guineas on gd-fm, win in the irish on heavy).
I dont know what race you were watching at newmarket, but the only sniff MCM got of delegator was on his way past. Also Brian Meehann said delegator wanted good ground (as I would agree with), not heavy ground. There is the possibility that a heavy irish guineas will have done delegator physical damage (as it did george Washington), but that happening aside MCM will once again not get near delegator on gd-fm.
Also, with regards all this improvement MCM has found, since when does AOB not have his horses bang on for newmarket. That must be something he is just toying with this season…
Like I say its your money, but unless only mug horses turn up at ascot MCM looks like he is the bookies banker for the meeting.
I knew that
<<<<<<<<<<fookin liar Look at you! who was slagging Mastercraftsman off after the 2000gns?
Now you have suddenly become his 2nd biggest fan! And now you seem to think every man and his dog are amazed at his victory last Saturday!
No wonder you will never be able to lace my boots, because you can only associate with Hindsight! TAPK has the ability to use Foresight! You have
more knowledge for National hunt! You are always clutching at straws on the Flat! Leave it to those of us that Know their horses! Not just jumping
on the Gan amrhas bandwagon for the Derby 6 months after TAPK told you!
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