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Not sure we will get the rematch as Desert Flower I think is going up in trip for the Oaks, she also has Eclipse and Irish Oaks entries.
Think she is clearly the best filly around. She will improve I’m sure again. Hopefully she takes on the boys at Goodwood or maybe even in the juddmonte at York. She looks some machine. Would think they would have an eye on the breeders Cup mile.
The sectionals for her final 3F were all daddy’s little girl as she clocked 10.83s, 10.47s and 11.10s hitting a top speed of 43.19 mph and a Finishing Speed (FSP) of 111.70%!
To compare, Field of Gold’s final 3F were 11.11s, 10.76s and 11.73s and he hit a top speed of 41.82mph with a Finishing Speed (FSP) 107.35%.
I thought that maybe Field of Gold paid late on because the 2000g was run faster than the 1000g and while that was true, the sectionals show that neither race for the first 5F was run overly fast (compared to the par). Windlord (who made the running in the 2000g) ran each of the first 3F ‘slow’ to par but then ran his 4th and 5th furlongs bang on par.
Whereas in the 1000g whilst the initial first furlong was run bang on par, the next 3F were run ‘very slow’ to par with the 5F being run just ‘slow’ to par. Which all meant that Windlord actually past the 5F pole a full one second faster than the front running California Dreamer did, with Field of Gold being 1.01s faster than Lake Victoria to that same point.
Then over the last 3F all hell broke loose in the 1000g as California Dreamer (who is exposed but might be worth dropping back in trip with) herself clocked 10.89s and 10.68 6th and 7th furlong splits before Lake Victoria hit the front at the 1F pole, whereas Field of Gold (who took it up at the 2F pole) rang two slower 6th and 7th furlong sectionals than California Dreamer did.
Both overall times dipped below standard (1000g fast by 0.32s and 2000g by 0.12s) but it just might turn out that Lake Victoria is the best 3 yr old miler around.
Interesting stuff LD,
Both overall and sectional times have quite a say in my betting. However, wind speed and direction can have a massive impact too.According to the Racing Post Sunday’s racing at the Curragh (including the Irish 1000 Guineas) had a “tailwind”.
Saturday’s racing (including the Irish 2000) was described as “blustery, half against”.
I suspect the Irish 1000 with that tailwind favoured those up with the slowish pace, with the front running second flattered by the result.
I backed Lake Victoria ante-post for the Coronation Stakes before Sunday’s race. She is (without Desert Flower) by some way the best 3 year old European filly miler. But probably didn’t need to improve on her two year old form to win it as easily as she did. Just needed the race so badly in the English 1000.
For me – The Irish 2000 winner was quite a bit better.
Value Is EverythingWould just love to see them clash though (maybe at Goodwood) as I have the feeling she has that electric instant gear change that could put Field of Gold (who seems to have to be wound up some way out to to hit top gear) to the sword if deployed right.
Royal Ascot will likely dictate if that will be a pipe dream or not.
“wind speed and direction can have a massive impact too.
According to the Racing Post Sunday’s racing at the Curragh (including the Irish 1000 Guineas) had a “tailwind”.
Saturday’s racing (including the Irish 2000) was described as “blustery, half against”. ”
I’ve seen you mention this before and it certainly seems to make a difference. Is there anywhere you can check this before racing, or do you keep a list of the orientation of the home straight at each course and then check wind speed and direction for that area on the Met Office forecast?
Sorry it’s a bit rude of me to ask you to just dish out your method /edge on the forum so if the answer is “that’s for me to know and you to find out- you can use Google Maps can’t you?” that’s fine, I just wondered if there was some common-knowledge info on an open website somewhere that has the information for that day’s racing together, that I have been too unobservant to find. Thanks GT.
“or do you keep a list of the orientation of the home straight at each course and then check wind speed and direction for that area on the Met Office forecast”?
Spot on, Green’.
A list. The vast majority of Timeform maps of racecourses have a compass (showing which way North is). I use that together with the Met Office forecast which shows predicted wind speed and direction.There may well be somewhere that shows this, but I like to do my own checking.
The more open, straight mile / heath racecourses (like York and Newmarket) are affected more than tight courses.
Value Is EverythingAssuming the meeting comes under RacingTV banner if you go onto their website click on the heading RACECARD and then click on the name of the course at the bottom of that subsequent page is a map of the course with a compass showing the direction of North (it only shows that for the flat).
The Jockey Club are next level with their website for their racecourses – see the one for Sandown’s meeting tomorrow, it basically has everything you need and it self refreshes every 5 minutes. Highly informative
https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/sandown/owners-and-trainers/the-going/
The problem with the Jockey Club / Turftrax information is the wind speed / direction is (I believe) the current or even previous “as at 10:50 am” today. Not what the wind speed and direction is likely to be at the time of the particular race I’m working out. It is showing as “Northwesterly” which would be directly across them if that were correct at the time of racing. Whereas judging by the Met Office it’ll most likely be a southwesterly by 19:05 tomorrow – the time of the Henry II… Which (if right) pretty much makes it a headwind.
I know, wind speed and direction can be difficult to predict. But knowing what the wind direction was well over 24 hrs earlier than the race itself is run – is next to useless information.
Value Is Everything
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