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I’d have to look at the current entrants and rule out the first two in the betting immediately. For me, Grandoeut is a grand looking horse but one who just doesn’t look to handle Cheltenham. I definitely see him being better suited elsewhere. Overturn could find this one race too many after his recent busy schedule.
Brampour and Menorah interest me greatly though. Menorah after winning this race last year, was highly fancied for the Champion Hurdle but in my opinion was a wee bit ring rusty after a while off and was not in the same league(nor could anyone have been!) as Hurricane Fly at Punchestown. He did however, make a decent impression on me on his chase debut. Granted he didn’t finish but until he unseated Dickie he jumped and travelled well. He has been too quickly written off for me. Brampour is a quickly improving horse who, depending on whether he can make an impression in this one, can certainly be a big e/w shout for this years Champion Hurdle and I for one may well snap up the 25/1 going around before Saturday gets here. Between these two for me depending on which Menorah shows up and how good Brampour can be.
If come race day it’s e/w first 3, Clerk’s Choice is a feasible shout for a place.
Grandouet for me every time.
I haven’t seen anything to suggest he doesn’t look happy around Cheltenham; his only run there was a very promising one. Not sure if Brampour will have the toe once things hot up. Bit of rain between now and then will do nicely but, if not, I wont be deterred.
I think he’s the champion hurdler but for Hurricane Fly.
Grandouet for me every time.
I haven’t seen anything to suggest he doesn’t look happy around Cheltenham; his only run there was a very promising one. Not sure if Brampour will have the toe once things hot up. Bit of rain between now and then will do nicely but, if not, I wont be deterred.
I think he’s the champion hurdler but for Hurricane Fly.
Echo those sentiments entirely.
I think Grandouet has all the ingredients of a very classy horse, but I’m just not convinced he gets the hill. Brampour is a horse seriously going places in my opinion
Think Grandouet should be a great back to lay at the least. If you get on, on the day, at around 5/2, you know he will travel well and go odds on in running. Think I’m going to have to top my Champion Hurdle fund before the race too!
I suspect I’ll go for Menorah on the day. Don’t think Cheltenham will suit Overturn. Respect Brampour but he has to improve on winning a poor renewal of the Greatwood. Grandouet is the threat, but just have a hunch he wants a flat track to show his best.
If Overturn lines up it should, at least, ensure a truly run race. I seem to recall many runnings of this in the past have turned into sprints.
Overturn looks as though he’s improved a fair bit but he’s a horse I can never catch. I’ve never bet him when he’s won but have done a couple of times when he ran poorly. Mr McCain had a habit of going to the well once too often with this horse although I think, young Donald is learning all the time.
Still, even if the horse runs to form, a flat track would see him to better effect. I believe the same applies to Grandouet who ran a perfectly good race in The Triumph but went from cantering turning in, to not finding much on the slope.
I like Brampour a lot and if he can win this, will have a real chance in the big one. His form and running style suggest he’ll want a strong pace although young Derham said he was run off his feet in the early stages last time. Still, there’s a chance he wants a stamina test, and he’ll be the one I’ll be watching closest on Saturday.
I always avoid Menorah because although he is capable of absolutely flying a hurdle, he is prone to walk through the odd one too and I’d rather not chance him because of that.
A fascinating race in prospect.
I’m very much with Grandouet but have a few doubts about his participation, which I’m worried about as I’ve backed him quite heavily (oops).
Grandouet for me, is clearly a horse that needs a proper tow into his race. He raced fairly prominently in the Triumph and has since been held up each time, and looked better every time. Barry clearly didn’t want to hit the front too soon when tracking Celestial Halo, and Tony took several pulls coming to the second last, and only went on when he couldn’t wait any longer. He was left in front in the Triumph when the leaders flattened out and I don’t think that suited him at all. I really hope Overturn lines up, because he’ll set a true pace and set the race up. I think he’ll have to be exceptional to win yet another top class race in such little time, and therefore couldn’t possibly back him, especially when I suspect he may have simply found out unfit rivals the last twice.
Brampour is likable but I just get the feeling the Greatwood wasn’t exceptional, even though he won like a good horse. Harry Derham is also a slight negative for me, and the odds don’t make much appeal. Menorah switching back to hurdles is strange, I don’t think it’s as straight-forward as saying the CH looks weak without HF (given the setback) and it’s up for grabs, I don’t think he’s good enough to be a Champion Hurdler on what he’s shown. I don’t like the fact this has come after unseating either, he may’ve lost confidence or not schooled well, and I don’t want to find out at the price.
Grandouet will certainly travel like the winner and go short in running, Brampour and Menorah take time to warm to the task and Overturn can often look beat when stalked by rivals, so I’ll probably attempt to trade out should he take his place. Obviously there is that slight worry that he may be best on a flat-track, but he’s young and would’ve no doubt strengthened up. I can’t see them going for the Xmas hurdle given they’d be taking on Zarkandar and stable-mate Binocular.
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Great write-up LL, and I’d agree with most of it. However, Overturn is a flat course horse and the hill found him out last year, so I wouldn’t expect him to lead much past the 2nd last.
Grandouet is still improving and looks the likeliest winner, but has the same question mark as Overturn, and I’m not convinced he’ll last home.
Brampour has done nothing wrong, and with proven course form has to be a danger, butSanctuaire
was only 8l behind him lto and is effectively a stone better in. He’s a horse that’s always promised a lot, but rarely delivered because off his propensity to pull hard, but was quite amenable in the Greatwood, and with Overturn likely to set a good pace, has his best chance for a while. At 16/1 generally, (18’s if you’ve red hair
) looks worth a punt to make the first 3.If anyone needs to update their records I can help
1st Grandouet 9/4 fav
ridden by
AP McCoy
trained by Nicky Henderson
Finger s crossed
If anyone needs to update their records I can help
1st Grandouet 9/4 fav
ridden by
AP McCoy
trained by Nicky Henderson
Finger s crossed
Did Overturn not win a Galway Hurdle off a big weight around Ballybrit?
That’s a more undulating course than Cheltenham sure.
- Total Posts 17716
Fair enough IC, but it wouldn’t be nearly as testing, particularly on the fast ground, that day.
Sanctuaire
was only 8l behind him lto and is effectively a stone better in. He’s a horse that’s always promised a lot, but rarely delivered because off his propensity to pull hard, but was quite amenable in the Greatwood, and with Overturn likely to set a good pace, has his best chance for a while. At 16/1 generally, (18’s if you’ve red hair
) looks worth a punt to make the first 3.I’ll have Grey hair if
Sanctuaire
wins this! i hope Brampour runs his race as he’s a good yardstick,Overturn at Cheltenham concerns me even though i backed him for last years Champion hurdle,seemed like a pacemakers role then though,Grandouet will give us a good idea if he is the real deal,i’m not convinced myself and as for
Menorah
,what beats him wins,i hope they finish in a heap personally!
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