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I never went to heavy on Rainbow View just a 2pt stake which is not that much for me..but i feel there have been more fingers burnt on the heavier gamblers than me
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Please don’t laugh
I had 25,000 baht ew on the winner. At least that’s what I thought.
My girlfriends parents are here so she asked I keep the sound on the comp down. So I watched the race without any sound as I knew Shimah’s/ Hamdan Al Maktoum’s coulours.
I watched the striped cap all the way and was cheering to myself like a looney
I don’t think I ever felt more sick in my life when the result popped up and I then realised he had 2 in the race.
At least I can be thankful I never backed Rainbow View or my losses would have been much much more.
I spoke to someone who likes a bet a few weeks ago, and he was telling me that Rainbow View was something special, I told him that IMO she never looked like a guineas winner and that I would be taking her on, and he was so confident that thought I was mad to oppose her, and I even thought he was trying to mask his confidence a bit aswell. I suspect he’s feeling pretty sick now.
As much as I like Ghanaati at this moment in time, I would love the opportunity to oppose her at Royal Ascot with Elusive Wave.
Optimally (but probably not so likely) Elusive Wave and Naaqoos are beaten on slower ground in France and turn up at ascot anyway as outsiders on a faster surface.
When people started going "she doesn’t have to improve at 3 – what she did at 2 was enough" I started to worry. I’ve seen plenty of decent 2yos seemingly regress at 3 and 4, group sprinters who end up in Class 4 Handicaps at Southwell etc.
If a horse doesn’t improve at 3 then it won’t win races. Kept thinking "Arazi" this morning when people were going on about Rainbow View.
Backed Cuis Ghaire and Super Sleuth against her (aftertiming award due here).
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Fist, I’m clueless but what would 50K bahts buy in the UK please?
ThanksIt’s just under a grand so you would get a walls ice cream and a packet of Benson and Hedges I suppose
Well, Fist, You must have great tenacity if you can still smile. Either that, or rich in-laws (no wonder you were happy to turn the sound down). I would be screwed-up in a ball on the floor, shouting, "Oh God, why did I do that, what am I going to do?"
Good wishes
Ken£20, a usual day at the office.
This has been my first year at playing the ante-post markets, though I have had maybe a dozen or so ante-post bets previously.
I must say that this weekend has strengthened my resolve to study breeding, and also breeding statistics, of racehorses.
Mine That Bird had the worst Dosage Index, despite the fact he was by a Belmont Stakes winner. Dosage is making itself look ridiculous. Having said that, there must be valid ways to attach numbers to stallions, given that nowadays most of them seem to cover 100+ mares a season.
Sea The Stars was out of [edited!
] the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Urban Sea ( I was there when she won)Ghanaati’s Granddam is Height Of Fashion, who is the most successful British broodmare of the past 20-30 years.
What’s the betting I’ll pick out a blueblood for next year, and it will be won by a plebian?
- Total Posts 17716
Well, Fist, You must have great tenacity if you can still smile. Either that, or rich in-laws (no wonder you were happy to turn the sound down). I would be screwed-up in a ball on the floor, shouting, "Oh God, why did I do that, what am I going to do?"
Good wishes
Ken No that was when Binocular got beat 
£20, a usual day at the office.
This has been my first year at playing the ante-post markets, though I have had maybe a dozen or so ante-post bets previously.
I must say that this weekend has strengthened my resolve to study breeding, and also breeding statistics, of racehorses.
Mine That Bird had the worst Dosage Index, despite the fact he was by a Belmont Stakes winner. Dosage is making itself look ridiculous. Having said that, there must be valid ways to attach numbers to stallions, given that nowadays most of them seem to cover 100+ mares a season.
Sea The Stars was by the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Urban Sea ( I was there when she won)
Ghanaati’s Granddam is Height Of Fashion, who is the most successful British broodmare of the past 20-30 years.
What’s the betting I’ll pick out a blueblood for next year, and it will be won by a plebian?
Mr prospector and his offshoots usually has some sort of say in the 1,000 guineas if its gd-fm I find gerald.
Damsires of the first and third home today, (damisre of the sire of the second home).
Sires of last years 2nd and 3rd
Finsceal Beo was Mr Prsopector line, and think Arch Swing (2nd) was on her damside too (may be mistaken there)
Speciosa’s guineas was on softer conditions and so that went to a Danehill Dancer with the Mr Ps not really figuring (many hadnt come out of their winter coats that year including Nannina). Think Mr P sires then had a 1,2,3 in the Coronation Stakes when the ground improved though.
Virgina Waters by Kingmambo was obviously Mr Prospector line, and Maids Causeway (similarly bred to todays winner) was Mr P on the dam side (Kingmambo again).
Cant really remember much of Attractions year but that was good ground if I remember correctly.
Russian Rhythym was Kingmambo (Mr P) again.
The thing with most Mr Prospector line sires is that most of them are best on gd-fm or dirt at around about 1 mile to 1m2f. They are also usually better with fillies. This makes them the perfect sorts of sires for 1,000 guineas candiates IMO. Trying to find which is the best no exact science and involves taking a bit of "hit and hope stance" dependant on form coming into each race, but if the prices are there then they are worth having a go on.
IMO for both the guineas it is always worth trying to find on with the right sort of profile. Sea The Stars had the right sort of profile for yesterdays race, and where I didnt back him I could see he was one to be fearful of, and backed the second home.
The thing I learnt last year, was not to become blinkered towards one horse in the guineas, I thought Ravens Pass was going to be hard to beat in the guineas so much that I overlooked Henrythenavigator, who had a perfectly good profile for the race.
IMO usually look for a horse that is likely to be a 1m2f type in the 2,000 guineas and one that will be a 7f-1m type in the 1,000, unless there looks likely to be pace implications from runners that may swing the result away from those sort of types (as today).
To be honest, I was very nearly persuaded to have a large bet (small by most standards perhaps) by a racing presenter (un-named, to protect his modesty) who was super-confident about Rainbow, so much so that he gave a blow by blow account as to how she would cruise into the lead and win going away with Jimmy Fortune waving goodbye to his colleagues.
Fortunately, the fact that he said that he, himself, had not had a bet in the race tended to err me on the side of caution. I just wonder how many people were taken in by his exuberance and lost heavily?
On reflection, in order to cover their backs, I think presenters, no matter how sure they are in their belief, should always throw in just a slight hesitation in case any naieve viewers throw caution to the wind and lose heavily. Not everyone is as astute as we imagine and presenters have, to a small degree, a duty of care in their broadcasting roles.I actually had the winner on Betfair at 38s, but only for a small amount. I posted my concerns on a thread on the Betfair forum. The R&FO Flat Guide 2009 had a stat in relation to Gosden’s fillies running in this race without a prep run is was 4000400. That actually put me off having a big bet and just having some small bets on some other runners.
The interview on RUK with John Gosden before the last race was interesting, He basically said that after walking the course this morning he knew they would struggle.
Another couple of points I forgot to mention gerald,
Bet the guineas for gd-fm, it wont always be, but I usually find that that works best. And ignore Danehill Dancers unless the ground is good or worse, no matter how good they look at 2yo.
Follow Giants Causeways for 2010. He hits Turf and Dirt, Colts and Fillies and almost all within the 7f-10f window. Giants Causeway had an amzaing year with his milers in 2005, which saw his price go up from 38,000 Euros (I think) to $340,000, to "Private". No doubt the following year Giants Causeway would have been put against some of the best mares available by coolmore, the 2yos from that lot will be hitting the track this year, and thus the 3yos next year, so I wouldnt be surprised if AOB has a few decent Giants Causeways, and I would be even less surprised if Giants Causeway wins both guineas next year.
Basically if you see any Giants Causeway 2yos winning pattern races this year, even early on, (particularly if they are Mr P on the Damside) then I’d say its worth having a little sneaky antepost if the prices are there at the time.
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