How much has everyone won/lost on Rainbow View today please?

[stilvi]

It is always worth remember though just how good Giants Causeway is as a sire though.

Silly me for not realising how good a sire Giants Causeway is compared to Sadlers Wells, Danzig and Storm Cat.

[Gerald]

Giant’s Causeway’s 5th crop are now 3yos. So let us average it out a bit and say that effectively there have been 4 complete crops that have completed their racing. GC has now sired the winners of 19 G1s, which is almost 5 a season.

Sadler’s Wells’ first crop was born in 1986. So his 3yos are from his 21st crop. If we knock one off for him as well, we can say he has had 20 complete crops race. SW has currently sired the winners of 128 G1s, which is getting on for 6.5 a season.

Sadler’s Wells’ progeny’s strike rate in G1s is 13%, whilst that of GC is 15%.

It can be argued that now that GC has proven he is reasonably good as a sire that overall he will get a better book of mares than in the past, and therefore his G1 wins per season is liable to go up, especially now that his own sire Storm Cat has decided to call it a day.

Edit: Turned the computer off, went to bed, then realised the stallion statistics on the RP website are from 2000 to date. Rather puts a hole in my case. I’ll try to find the actual stats once I’m up and running in my new gaff.

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[ricky lake]

folks , she hasnt trained on it was that simple , paddock inspection (she was last in and went straight out ) shnowed her to be no bigger than a pony ,, so at 1.86 this was a lay no porblem

its the age old story , other fillies improve past really precocious 2 yr olds who dont grow/train on

The winner is some horse , won on merit ,and will take some stopping up to 10 furlongs

cheers

Ricky

[endevour]

Next race should reveal all.

[tbracing]

I don’t think she was ever comfortable yesterday. Very early stages of the race Jimmy Fortune was having to shake the reins at her and just niggle at her as if something wasn’t quite as it should be. I subscribe to the ground with her personally, many horses on the day were not enjoying the ground, Lahaleeb for one should be given a chance back on softer ground. It’s a long season and she will have many chances yet to prove whether she is top class or not.

[Anonymous]

Not really being a flat fan, I watched the coverage today on Channel 4.

I watched with interest the interview with John Gosden about Rainbow View and IMO he was intimating that the horse was not fully wound up for todays race, which I found quite increible as it was the 1000 Guineas

Having watched the race I think I was right. He did say it was a long season for the horse if all went well. It will be interesting what he sayes now.

I think it will bounce back and prove herself a lot better than the ones taht finished in front of her today.

I don’t find that incredible at all. No two horses are a like and you can do too much too soon with some horses if they have grown more than average.

[Bulwark]

It is always worth remember though just how good Giants Causeway is as a sire though.

Silly me for not realising how good a sire Giants Causeway is compared to Sadlers Wells, Danzig and Storm Cat.

Not so much silly, just something you’ve overlooked, GC is IMO better than all three of those, and should prove it categorically over the coming seasons.

[Bulwark]

folks , she hasnt trained on it was that simple , paddock inspection (she was last in and went straight out ) shnowed her to be no bigger than a pony ,, so at 1.86 this was a lay no porblem

its the age old story , other fillies improve past really precocious 2 yr olds who dont grow/train on

The winner is some horse , won on merit ,and will take some stopping up to 10 furlongs

cheers

Ricky

My thoughts exactly, when Rainbow View ran in the fillies mile last year I backed Dreamtheimpossible before seeing the two of them in the paddock. DTI was so weak framed by comparison to rainbow view who looked fully developed by comparison.

I remember Bolger and AOB saying on several occasions that you want a horse to fill out from 2-3 rather than grow. RV didnt look like she could really fill out much more where DTI looked like she hadnt started fillin gout. IMO DTI wasnt beaten far enough that day to suggest that Rainbow View was anything special, and IMO she was just an early developer, who will be expensive to follow this season for those that keep faith in her.

[stilvi]

It is always worth remember though just how good Giants Causeway is as a sire though.

Silly me for not realising how good a sire Giants Causeway is compared to Sadlers Wells, Danzig and Storm Cat.

Not so much silly, just something you’ve overlooked, GC is IMO better than all three of those, and should prove it categorically over the coming seasons.

Incredible statement but fortunately very few people I suspect will be monitoring it.

I was making the point that given the list of previous matings and the horses all-weather form she didn’t actually jump off the page as a Guineas winner. To see her as one was predominantly guesswork no matter how many statistics we may get about Giants Causeway.

I believe from looking at the other thread you were so confident that you backed a third of the field in a one mile Flat race. That to me is akin to backing ten horses in a Grand National or throwing a load of darts at a board and hoping a few might stick in.

In terms of making any sort of long-term profit I wouldn’t advocate that sort of poilcy to anyone.

I used to put plenty of effort in to looking at Flat pedigrees and it would occasionally provide a nice priced winner. However, it was very easy to overlook the fact that there were many more nice price losers. Pedigrees are a talking point and it gives the impression to those who don’t follow them that you know a little extra something but most of time other factors are massively more important in selecting winners.

[Bulwark]

I believe from looking at the other thread you were so confident that you backed a third of the field in a one mile Flat race. That to me is akin to backing ten horses in a Grand National or throwing a load of darts at a board and hoping a few might stick in.

In terms of making any sort of long-term profit I wouldn’t advocate that sort of poilcy to anyone.

On the contrary I would say only a fool doesnt hadge their bets in the guineas. Its more a case of educated guesswork stilvi. Ghanaati ticked enough boxes for me to consider her to be a bet, however she needed to improve considerably, which is why she wasnt a banker. My stance on the guineas was always that I didnt fancy Rainbow View and I fancied something to improve past her.

With that in mind there was always value there to take her on and done a few with what I considered decent profiles for the race. Amongst that I hit the winner and made a nice profit. Hedged my bets in the 2,000 and made a 2pt loss with a 40-1 second. Across the two races I made a profit.

I was making the point that given the list of previous matings and the horses all-weather form she didn’t actually jump off the page as a Guineas winner. To see her as one was predominantly guesswork no matter how many statistics we may get about Giants Causeway.

The 1,000 guineas like the 2,000 is a race where the whole thing you are trying to do is find an improver. Thats what the guineas is, you are trying to find a group1 miler out of all of the 2yos. The only "facts" you have to go on are what they were like at 2 or what they were like in their 3yo trials (if they ran in one). None of that is a fact about the guineas, all you can do is try to pre-empt what happens in the race.

Now with Ghanaati:
She had the right pedigree for the race, and the ground, and should see out the trip well enough if there was a fast pace on.
She was reasonably lightly raced.
She had been a noticable positive in the antepost markets.
Her Trainer was saying that he really liked her and had deliberately missed the trials to start her in the guineas.
She was between 16 and 20-1 for the race.

She was no cert but at her price she was always borderline value IMO.

Incredible statement but fortunately very few people I suspect will be monitoring it.

I strongly suspect that over the coming seasons it is going to be virtually impossible to miss.

Would love to continue the discussion but am off to England to start a new job in a few hours and have to start packing now. Good luck for the next few weeks folks.

[Gerald]

Okay Bulwark, I’ve had a quick look at Giant’s Causeway progeny on Pedigree Query, and sorted them by year. There are loads of the buggers for 2007, which I found surprising, because I thought quite a lot would still be unnamed.

I couldn’t capture the list to post it here, but here are some of the highlights. Unfortunately, I don’t know who is training them.

Colts

Eightfold Path, Divine Proportions, Kingmambo
Emperor Claudius, Virginia Waters, Kingmambo
Global Force, Debit Account, Mr Prospector
HMS Victory, Imagine, Sadler’s Wells
Impest, North Of Neptune, Mr Prospector
Polyphemus, Aqaarid, Nashwan

Fillies

Jean Jeannie, Moon Dazzle, Kingmambo
Nehalennia, Airwave, Air Express
Toll, Yell, AP Indy

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php? … Horses&cf=

I picked some out because of the Dam, and some because of the Damsire.

I might be wrong about Toll. The name Yell sounded familiar to me, but maybe I’m mixing her up with another Yell, as she is Yell3

I

KNEW

I had come across at least one Yell before. She is Japanese, and the great-granddam of Meisho Samson, who ran in the Arc last season.

[Author]

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