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Blimey Smithy have you had a humour transplant.
My apologies no place for humour on a racing forum. Lets talk about value or something hey
When I started following racing, just under twenty years ago, the journalism and analysis was very stale. Geoff Lester types did the journalism and Lester’s equivalent in the race/betting analysis department provided the tips – someone indoctrined to Timeform’s prehistoric paradigm.
Then along came the great Nick Mordin, like a hurricane of fresh air. Gone were the beaten favourite tips on some Timeform top-rated. In their place a completely different, revolutionary, way of viewing the world.
You would have thought that Mordin’s arrival would have left the Timeform wallahs on borrowed time, but 15 years later they’re everywhere, tipping up losers and sending readers to sleep.
What happened? Every week Mordin publicly pronounces how you would have done if you’d have followed his system and every week he declares a profit without fail. Compare and contrast with the TF tipsters – no long term results displayed and only heard banging their own drum on the rare occasions when one of their underpriced jollies has actually obliged.
Then we have the eductaionary aspect of Mordin’s works. You can read a real winner, like Bill Benter, explaining what weight he applies to various variables in Mordin’s book and the methodology he used to reach his conclusions. Compare and contrast ‘hobby punter’ Jimbo McGrath’s interview here, where we have the mere appeal to his authority when assigning importance to various factors. No methodology, no explanation, the mere fact that he’s gathered most dust in Halifax makes his word gospel.
As I ask in the thread title, post Mordin-revolution how do these TF types still get work? Are readers that undiscerning?
I get the Perspective, Racehorses, Chasers And Hurdlers, Statistical Review and Stallion Statistical Review. Not because I want some new fangled way of looking at things. But because I want the tried and tested way. Timeforms prehistoric paradigm may be old but that is because it works. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
I make a profit most years by using their products.
The trouble is a lot of punters do not understand how to use Timeform, too much is made of the top rated. Use it to find true value and you should profit.The hurricane of fresh air must have come out of Mordin’s rear end.
Why should Jim McGrath tell non-subscribers anything anyway? If the drum beats at all it is very softly (modestly).
Glenn, why not seek out a book called "Betting The Timeform Way" which should explain things.
Value Is EverythingNo sense of humour failure for me. I just find it annoying that having come from a non-Timeform background to work in the industry, this ‘it’s not what you know it’s who you know’ attitude still prevails.
Anyway, back to value……..
No sense of humour failure for me. I just find it annoying that having come from a non-Timeform background to work in the industry, this ‘it’s not what you know it’s who you know’ attitude still prevails.
Anyway, back to value……..
Im sure some people do get work in the industry without having a timeform connection. I heard some people slept there way into racing jobs.
Only kidding chap, lets have a man hug and bond.
Has Glenn declared a ceasefire on the bookies and decided to go all out for Timeform then?
I dont do grovelling emails begging for shifts chap. Its head hunted or not at all.
LOL – I am sure Bruce Millington will be champing at the bit having read your posts on here.
I dont do grovelling emails begging for shifts chap. Its head hunted or not at all.
LOL – I am sure Bruce Millington will be champing at the bit having read your posts on here.
Does he post on here? Im a huge Iron Maiden fan and it would be an honour to have Bruce champing on my bit.
The trouble is a lot of punters do not understand how to use Timeform, too much is made of the top rated.
Spot on Ginger with-a-small-p, though I’m sure you’d agree that if the ‘crowd’ are content to regard Time and Form as no more than a number-crunching exercise, this can only benefit those prepared to delve a little deeper.
Out of interest, have you tried Computer Timeform?
Glenn, why not seek out a book called "Betting The Timeform Way" which should explain things.
Yep back to basics Glenn, you know it makes sense
No Drone, have not tried Computer Timeform.
Looked at it and decided it was not worth the extra cash. My brother is in computer software and he reckons it should cost Timeform less to produce Computer Timeform than the Perspective. Yet it is much dearer.
Also talked to Alan Potts and he did not think it was worth the extra either. That was a year or two ago though.What do you think of it Drone?
I don’t think Timeform has as much to do with times as it used to. It is more form, one horse against the next. After all a horse that puts up a comparitively fast time is definately a good horse. Where as a slow time could just be the pace in the race being slower. Though they do rightly use it as a back up. With changing rail positions it is getting harder to know what the correct distance is anyway.
Have backed Ravens Pass for the 2000 Guinees purely on a time performance though.Ginge
Value Is EverythingIn my first season full-time at the racecourse I remember a horse called Sonus running in the Goodwood Cup. There was a rumour going around the track that it had lost a leg and it drifted from 6/4 to 4s. Everyone knew that the price represented a bargain if the horse was 100% but nobody was sure whether the 4s was a bargain in the real world. In the end the horse won.
Fast forward a couple of years and I’m leafing through a book called Betting the Timeform Way. Surprisingly the book didn’t offer up the expected advice on how to reload on subprime loans and take advantage of all the freebies the bookies were sending your way. Instead, it made out that you could use timeform to make a profit!
As an example it ran through the 1993 Goodwood Cup and showed how anyone reading TF would have realised what a great bet it was from their products. The trouble was everyone using any public info knew that it was theoretically a great bet at 4s. It must be easy to pick out the great bets after they have won and not have to deal with horses pulling up lame, jockeys jumping off/finding trouble, the horse being doped etc.
Then we have the advice later in the book that if something looks too good to be true it probably is.
As usual aftertiming with all angles covered.
The claim that you need to know how to use TF to take advantage of it just puts it alongside snake oil in my book. A case can be made that they pointed you towards just about every winner after the race has been run. Did anyone else recieve their free sample racecard for Royal Ascot, showing how good they were? They had the Queen Mary fav bottom rated of about 17 runners, yet they claimed because they gave the horse a big P they were steering punters towards it. Good Grief!
Glenn,
The big P is put against a horses rating when it is thought capable of a rating considerably better than its form currently allows them to rate it.
It is therefore quite reasonable for them to claim some credit for putting the large P on to the rating of a winner that showed considerable improvement.As for aftertiming, who is it that is picking past races at random, even going back to 1993, to illustrate their case? That is Glenn I think.
So you are just as guilty as anyone else of aftertiming.
The fact is Timeform is used by a very high percentage of profit making punters. Because Timeforms opinion has been proved over many years to be more acurate than any other. Certainly more than Nick "The Great" Mordin.
You stick to Mordin mate, the fewer people use Timeform the bigger the edge us subscribers have.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingSpeaking of Masons…….
Q. What’s the difference between an apple and an orange?
A. You can’t get an "apple bas*tard"As for aftertiming, who is it that is picking past races at random, even going back to 1993, to illustrate their case? That is Glenn I think.
So you are just as guilty as anyone else of aftertiming.
Ginge
Think you’ll find that it was TF that picked the race when deciding on what to put in their book, which I was asked to comment on.
Oh, and I very much doubt they picked it randomly…………
You stick to Mordin mate, the fewer people use Timeform the bigger the edge us subscribers have
Whilst the use of Timeform may confer some advantages, e.g., saving of time, or offering paddock comments, does the modern punter need to rely upon such a service. So much information is either freely available or readily accessible these days that, surely, many aspects of the Timeform product are virtually redundant.
What do you think of it Drone?
I’ve been a subscriber to the NH database (no Time then) since its inception in ’95, though I’ve had numerous run-ins with them regarding its (lack of) functionality, in particular their refusal to allow data export to a spreadsheet and post-race interrogation of their racecard ratings e.g it’s not possible to query the performance of the ‘p’ horses nor top-rated.
That aside, for many years prior to becoming computer literate I struggled with the unwieldy hard-copy versions of Perspective, Black Book and Racecards so having all these three incorporated into simple to use software is much appreciated.
As for value-for-money, that’s really down to no more than opinion, and in mine it very much is.
As you intimated in your earlier post it’s the horse/race commentaries that are ‘value’ rather than the all-too-public ratings.
I certainly wouldn’t dismiss the Perspective as ‘old hat’ if you’re content to spend time thumbing back-and-forward through it as all the info is obviously there, but personally I don’t miss that routine one bit so am happy to pay that bit more for the virtual version.
Should emphasise that I don’t rely on Timeform to ‘find’ my bets, but rather use it as an adjunct to my own analysis of a race. Tend to be most content when I disagree with them, particularly their rating of a horse.
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