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1. There is a lot of time for a horse to grow into its frame from 2-3 and 25lbs is beleivable.
2. Some horses no matter how many runs can turn from ordinary handicappers into top class horses (ie. Young Mick and Les Arcs 2006)
3. Elsworth said after the guineas he was disapointed as he expected his horse to win it, let alone be placed. Therefore he must have seen a major improvement in his horse.
4. He repeated the form in the irish guineas therefore it wasnt a one off
5. Both times he ran not too far off of new approach who has gone on to win a derby
6. No one wrote off the dante because tartan bearer went up so many lbs from his leicester maiden 2ndSorry, its just I have taken quite a liking to the horse after his efforts in the guineas and expect him to be placed again in the St James Palace.
1. Stubbs Art did not find 25lb between the ages of 2-3. He allegedly found it between the 25th April 2008 and the 3rd May 2008, which by my reckoning is eight [8] days, or roughly 3lb per day.
2. I don’t think Young Mick could ever have been described as top-class. A grand handicapper or a bit above certainly but not top-class.
3. Elsworth is well known for talking-up every horse he is asked for a quote about. A sort of anti-Captain Tim Forster.
4. You are right that Stubbs Art repeated the form in the [substandard] Irish[/color:1wimebh1] Guineas.
5. New Approach obviously needs further than 1m to show of his best.
6. Tartan Bearer had only run twice before the Dante. Nobody could know how good he potentially was!At Newmarket New Approach would have been back in front in a couple of strides. So how much more than a mile does he need to show off his best?
What is his best? If he had followed Tartan on the outside instead of ducking back in again behind horses he might have won by who knows how much.From where he ducked back to the inside then swerved down to the rail then straightened out and started to stride out for the first time in the race he must have lost 99 out of a 100 races if he was any other horse.So we don’t know how good he is .But he certainly has the speed to win a group one over a mile.Prior to Newmarket, Henrythenavigator was just another APO’B horse. Even Murtagh was opting for Jupiter Pluvius to ride.
Falco and Raven’s Pass would be stiff competition – and even the other APO’B runners!
Prior to the Oaks last year Peeping Fawn was just another AOB horse. Nobody from the yard rode her.So we cannot draw too much from that.
Wasnt it AoB who had said that Henry would come on for the run in the english guineas, which is why he was at such long odds due to his lack of fitness? He won it, all be it only slightly but i will put this down to his fitness. He then ‘came on’ for that run by winning the irish guineas in very easy fashion. Slate the other runners all you want but Henry won the race with ease, Murtagh was as good as still on the bridle and you can only beat what is in front of you. All the horses bar the french guineas winner he beat in the guineas so i see no reason why he wouldnt beat them again.
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At Newmarket New Approach would have been back in front in a couple of strides. So how much more than a mile does he need to show off his best?
What is his best? If he had followed Tartan on the outside instead of ducking back in again behind horses he might have won by who knows how much.From where he ducked back to the inside then swerved down to the rail then straightened out and started to stride out for the first time in the race he must have lost 99 out of a 100 races if he was any other horse.So we don’t know how good he is .But he certainly has the speed to win a group one over a mile.So how much more than a mile does he need to show off his best?
Andyod
I think you have answered your own question?
If he ever runs over a mile again, let alone wins, I will take up hopscotch!
How much would it add to New Approach’s stud value if Bolger could conjure up a win over a mile at the highest level? I will be waiting for the scotch!
I do not believe that any horse lacking fitness can win the first classic. HTN was as fit as the rest of them. Are we to believe that SOF was less fit than Macarthur who won his previous race at Chester?Aidan can win as good as the best first time out when he wants to.They all improve from a run. Race fitness as opposed to fitness.
He then ‘came on’ for that run by winning the irish guineas in very easy fashion. Slate the other runners all you want but Henry won the race with ease,
The ground at the Curragh helped Henry a great deal that day , imho. Manning set a pretty pedestrian pace on New Approach ( which explains why the finishing time of the race was so slow ) and , judging by the Bolger-colt’s demeanor, that was as fast as he (NA) could go on a surface he was feeling. This state of affairs played into Henry’s hands, who has able to kill NA with his speed at the business end of the race. Had there been a bit a juice in the ground to help New Approach – as there had been at Newmarket , and Epsom,too, for that matter – I’m sure things wouldn’t have been so easy for the Ballydoyle colt and we wouldn’t have seen such a labored effort by the son of Galileo – I think Jim Bolger knew this all too well, hence why he criticized the Curragh for not watering the track during the build-up to the race.
I don’t know why but the thought keeps going round my head that Henrythenavigator won a below par 2,000 Guineas [narrowly for a horse that needed half-a-mile further] and a woeful Irish 2,000 Guineas [from a horse that hated the ground and needed half-a-mile further] and indeed he could be one of the most overrated horses in training.
Will anything come to beat him in the St James Palace, which also doesn’t look a very strong race?
Do I need to see a Doctor?
Can’t see Henry being beaten. After the 2000 guineas like you I thought it was a sub standard race but after the Irish Equivelant I began to think he could be something really special.
I think many tend to take into account Henry’s losses as a 2 year old and not give him credit he deserves.
I am begining to think we have 2 very special horses on our hands as New Approach’s Derby win ranks up there with the best for me.
He pulled double for the majority of the race, behaving like an out of control school kid. When watching the race I discounted him after 4 furlongsd thinking he would be sure to burn himself out…not a bit of it, despite burning up loads of energy fighting his pilot early on he won with much more in hand than the distance would have us believe.
Now I wouldn’t like to split the 2 on whether Henry is better over mile than New Approach is over 1m4f.
There is no value in backing Henry but I don’t think New Approach will be beaten again this season. 7/1 is an amazing price for the Arc (if he is an intended runner) as he looks a different class to Soldier of Fortune IMO. Getaway who absolutely hated Epsom is a better horse thqan SOF IMO but even he might struggle with New Approach should the latter settle better next time out.
Tread carefully Reet, the St James Palace is run on the round course, the Queen Anne on the straight.
Thanks for that DJ, I had supposed to have checked
Even so, Ascot’s round mile is a severe enough test against the Rowley Mile as every Royal Ascot seems to prove.
In my view,, HTN didn’t last a stiff 7 in the Futurity as a 2yo, was being reeled in at the end of the Newmarket Guinea’s, and would struggle to get home against a decent pace. Of course, there is always the chance that he will be gifted the race, as he was the Irish Guineas.For those eulogising HTN, maybe they should have a look at some of the trees that were close behind him in both Guineas: Stubbs Art, a non-staying Raven’s Pass and the 104 rated Dream Eater at Nemmarket, and again Stubbs Art and an unfit 109 horse Jupiter Pluvius at the Curragh.
Spare me the superhorse, please!I think you’ll go broke favouring stamina over speed at the new Ascot, even on the round course- it doesn’t seem to take the same getting as before and you’ll have a task on convincing me that the round mile will take any more getting than the Curragh mile.
you’ll have a task on convincing me that the round mile will take any more getting than the Curragh mile.
Have to disagree there. Perhaps my memory is playing tricks on me, but the climb out of Swinley Bottom to the wire seems quite a lot more pronounced to me – a stiffer test – than the Curragh’s not-so-straight mile.
Anyone on here ridden both tracks ?
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I think you’ll go broke favouring stamina over speed at the new Ascot, even on the round course- it doesn’t seem to take the same getting as before and you’ll have a task on convincing me that the round mile will take any more getting than the Curragh mile.
Wouldn’t bet on it, Carv!
OK slower ground, but I distinctly recall Finsceal Beo, for instance, hardly lasting 7f at Ascot after her Curragh win last year, given time there are probably a lot more too.I don’t know why but the thought keeps going round my head that Henrythenavigator won a below par 2,000 Guineas [narrowly for a horse that needed half-a-mile further] and a woeful Irish 2,000 Guineas [from a horse that hated the ground and needed half-a-mile further] and indeed he could be one of the most overrated horses in training.
Will anything come to beat him in the St James Palace, which also doesn’t look a very strong race?
Do I need to see a Doctor?
Can’t see Henry being beaten. After the 2000 guineas like you I thought it was a sub standard race but after the Irish Equivelant I began to think he could be something really special.
I think many tend to take into account Henry’s losses as a 2 year old and not give him credit he deserves.
I am begining to think we have 2 very special horses on our hands as New Approach’s Derby win ranks up there with the best for me.
He pulled double for the majority of the race, behaving like an out of control school kid. When watching the race I discounted him after 4 furlongsd thinking he would be sure to burn himself out…not a bit of it, despite burning up loads of energy fighting his pilot early on he won with much more in hand than the distance would have us believe.
Now I wouldn’t like to split the 2 on whether Henry is better over mile than New Approach is over 1m4f.
There is no value in backing Henry but I don’t think New Approach will be beaten again this season. 7/1 is an amazing price for the Arc (if he is an intended runner) as he looks a different class to Soldier of Fortune IMO. Getaway who absolutely hated Epsom is a better horse thqan SOF IMO but even he might struggle with New Approach should the latter settle better next time out.
What makes you think Getaway hated Epsom – is it because he didn’t win. SOF didn’t exactly like Epsom last year then, but he seemed to do alright this time round.
Also, what basis is there to say that Getaway is better than SOF? SOF’s form is superior – even the bridesmaid Youmzain has put Getaway in his place twice now. I think people got a bit carried away with Getaway’s second last run tbh.
Getaway beat a pair of scrubbers at Newmarket – but it was the way he trounced them which gave me the impression he was progressing enough to perform up to a top, top standard in Group 1 company.
Unfortunately, 3 3/4 lengths without the whip didn’t equate to SoF or Youmzain.
Surely the fact that Getaway was leaning left into the rail for most of the straight and that Pasquier couldn’t pull him off the rail to prevent getting boxed in, even though when you see how he’s pulling the reins, to attempt to, was some sort of clue that he wasn’t as at ease on the track as some of his rivals.
Well imo, Getaway seemed to be going as good if not better than Soldier of Fortune towards the business end of the race and just couldn’t quicken past him. That he was boxed in didn’t help, but I don’t think he would have won with a clear run.
Given the fact that the latter should come on for the run and it would take a brave person to say with assurance that Getaway is better than Soldier of Fortune.
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