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From my blog:
In nineteen days’ time, Hello Bud will officially turn fifteen. His actual birth day was April 24th 1998, but all racehorses are deemed 1 year older on January 1st and that is the age that will appear alongside his name if he lines up in the John Smith’s Grand National on April 6th.
It is rare for a 15-y-o to be in training. The last of that age to run in the National was MacMoffat in 1947.
Hello Bud is one of my favourite horses, a game front runner who jumps very well. He has never fallen over fences and his victory in The Becher Chase last Saturday, a race he won in 2010, was over the National fences, although it is more than a mile shorter than the big race in April.
The National is often described as racing’s shop window. But it’s a shop which opens just once a year as far as the public is concerned and among the millions gaping, there are plenty with big bricks in their hands. On view in recent times, equine corpses, a trail of exhausted dismounted horses having buckets of water thrown on them by panicky people lest they collapse in view of millions. That sweating cavalry were led home by a beautiful big horse who was thrashed all the way up the run-in by his jockey.
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised died in the 2012 race after throwing his rider before the start. Some believe his fatal injury was caused by the thick wooden stakes making up the core of each spruce-dressed fence. Those wooden cores are on their way out and should have been dispensed with many years ago. They were removed from four fences for last weekend’s Becher meeting.
The shop-window audience is increasingly filling with rubber-neckers and animal rights people.
Dene Stansall, spokesman for Animal Aid told Chris Cook of The Guardian,
"We did some research in 2008, looking at racehorses that were killed between March 2007 and March 2008, and we found that most of those who collapsed and died were older horses running over a long distance. I think there is a question over whether it’s right or not for him to be taking his chance. Obviously, we remember Mac Vidi getting placed in the [1980] Gold Cup at the age of 15, though that was a very long time ago.
"It’ll be a different ballgame for Hello Bud in April, running against 39 horses rather than 15 [last Saturday] and probably on faster ground, when he might be taken off his feet. Pointing to the horse’s career earnings of £320,000, Stansall said: "He’s done enough, surely. He’s earned his retirement. The National would be one step too far."
I cannot verify Mr Stansall’s research but you can bet that most editors won’t seek verification before publishing his quotes. Mr Stansall, from a personal viewpoint, is doubtless sincere in not wanting Hello Bud to run. But he will be delighted to make all he can of the opportunity should the BHA not step in and end this now, well before entries for the race open.
On the face of it, there is nothing wrong with allowing Hello Bud to take part in a marathon steeplechase. In the interests of the horse and his connections and, crucially the interests of fairness, justice, whatever you want to call it, he should be allowed to run anywhere he is fit to.His owner/trainer Nigel Twiston Davies, who has won the National with Bindaree and Earth Summit, told Chris Cook,
"Why is the poor horse going to deteriorate so much in the next three and a half months? It’s ridiculous. He’s led them a merry dance [in the Becher], he’s beaten a previous National winner. I’ll withdraw him instantly if they can prove that his age is going to put him at such a great risk but I don’t think they can.
"They could say these things if he’d trailed round in last but he didn’t. There’s a risk every time you canter a horse, or gallop them at home. If he gave up racing, he’d go hunting or chasing a trail or something like that, where he’d be just as likely to break a leg. Do they want me to put him in a field for the rest of his days and tell him, sorry about the cold weather?"If ever you saw a horse enjoying himself in a race, it was him on Saturday. I think it’s a bit silly to talk about horses enjoying themselves, which is a human thing, but at the very least he wasn’t showing any resentment. I put him out in a field with our other horses who had run at the weekend and he was the one who was bucking and kicking most of all."
I cannot dispute a word of that. Nigel knows him better than anyone and the last thing he would do is put any horse at risk.
But it’s not the risk to the horse that’s paramount here, it is the risk to the future of the Grand National. We have more than our fair share of experts in this sport but you need not be one to foresee the folly of allowing a fifteen-year-old to run in the National. A class of school-children the same age as the horse faced with doing a risk-assessment on the potential PR impact would, I’m sure, recommend that he should not take part.
The BHA has the power to prevent any horse running in any race (under rule 12.4.4). A specialist BHA-organised panel also assembles to judge the qualifications of each horse before the Grand National. Last year, a minimum age limit of seven was introduced. How they must now wish they’d stuck a solid bookend at the upper level too.
There is a chance that Hello Bud will not ‘get in’ anyway (there is a cut-off ballot for this maximum field of 40 based on a horse’s handicap mark; Hello Bud’s mark is 133 and that might just be short of what is needed). But I believe the BHA should act before the end of the year to nip this particular Bud. Formally, there might be nothing they can do until entries have been made, but they should let the trainer know they will simply not allow the horse to run.
If he misses the National, Mr Twiston-Davies says Hello Bud will run in The Topham. Fine, that’s a reasonable trade-off. It will be a smaller field over a much shorter trip and, vitally, the curtains will not yet have been opened on racing’s shop window.
Long-term sponsors Heineken, via their John Smith’s brand, will be wishing they’d ended their sponsorship in 2012 (the 2013 race is their last as sponsors). Reportedly, there has been disquiet for some time in the sponsors’ HQ about the image of the National. It’s gone from a wayward PR firecracker to something much more threatening for a sponsor, and if Hello Bud is allowed to run it becomes a time-bomb.
I wonder if you’ll be saying the same thing if he runs and wins.
Just because he’s 15 doesn’t mean he still can’t take on the other runners. Many evening horses are still competing at top level at the same age and they’re also jumping 30 or more fences with a target time only slightly more than the National’s average.
If he wins it’ll be another fairy tale story in the National’s history. If he’s fit and healthy on the day then I say let him have a go. Of course a lot could happen between now and that special day in March.
Joe this is absolutely balls my old cock.
Since 1997 heres some stats for you (using horseracebase and only goes back to 1997)
Runners
624
Deaths
17
Attrition rate
2.72%
Average age of runners
9.63
65 horses ran 12 or older
1 death
0.16% of the total attrition rate (a proportion of the 10+ also)322* horses ran 10 or older
7 deaths
1.12% of the total attrition rate302 horses ran 9 or younger
10 deaths
1.6% of the total attrition rateOf those deaths, according to a wikipedia page, two collapsed, one was Hear The Echo (8yo*) and the other Graphic Approach (9yo)
Of the older horses that died it was either of a fall or being brought down, one whilst riderless.
Evidently the older horses fared far better in regards to their safety and well being and it was actually those under the average age of 9.5 effectively that were at the most risk.
Hello Bud is one of the least likely to fall in the race given his ability to jump those fences and given his racing style, one of the least likely to be brought down.
Animal aids research is evidently a load of nonsense and you should bow your head in shame for even giving them column inches. You appear more anti racing with every post, are you Dene Stansall in disguise?
Some people won’t rest until national is a 2 1/2 mile chase around haydock for 10yo 3rd season chasers only, with a maximum 10 runners that have never fallen in a race… for greys only.
A 15yo is no more prone to injury than a younger horse.
I recall Young Dubliner, 3rd in the 2004 Maryland Hunt Cup, age 15 (also, 5th in Maryland Grand National the week before, after leading first two miles). Also, ran 4 3-mile timber races in 4 weeks as a 16yo, with two wins, a second and a third.
Joe,
I’ve agreed with you on so many ways to make the Grand National safer over the last couple of years. But this is definitely NOT one of them.I see some have made the same points, but will keep them in.
Everyone knows older horses are more likely to die than younger ones; therefore ofcourse older horses are more likely to die in a race. However, that is not the only consideration. Stamina is key. Those with limited stamina may well become "exhausted" in a long distance race. Horses lose speed as they get older and settle/relax much easier; increasing their stamina requirements. The older horses get the more likely they are to stay/race over extreme distances.
Handicappers also start at their own minimum distance; where they may not be at their "optimum", but still capable of winning off a lowish mark. Once exposed at that trip they gradually go up to their optimum trip; with luck – winning as they go. Therefore again, older horses are likely to run over further.
Last horse (that I can remember) to die on the flat in the National was Hear The Echo, colapsing on the 2009 run-in. He was only 8 years old.
When considering all the other factors, Hello Bud stays all day, acts on any going and jumps brilliantly…. to ban probably THE LEAST likely horse to fall is rediculous. If not in contention am sure Sam will pull him up. The horse looks after himself anyway, never finding much for the whip, so unlikely to die of exhaustion. There are far more suitable horses to ban from running in the National.
If Hello Bud runs in the Topham he’ll probably get outpaced, won’t be able to get the prominent position he’s used to, so far MORE likely to fall. Far riskier to run Hello Bud in the Topham than Grand National.
Value Is EverythingLast year, Synchronised was one of the most likely horses to fall, because of the way he skewed over his fences. That’s not me speaking in hindsight Joe; in my write up on your blog I said
"Biggest problem to him winning could be the fences. Usually makes mistakes, doesn’t give them much room and sometimes skews on landing but has so far always found a leg".
If I had to nominate one horse that will not fall, who will not die in next year’s race – it would be Hello Bud.
Value Is EverythingJoe,
I’ve agreed with you on so many ways to make the Grand National safer over the last couple of years. But this is definitely NOT one of them.I see some have made the same points, but will keep them in.
Everyone knows older horses are more likely to die than younger ones; therefore ofcourse older horses are more likely to die in a race.
A 15yo is not an "old" horse in any other equestrian event.Nobody claimed that Mary King’s Imperial Cavalier and Nicoloa Wilson’s Opposition Buzz, both age 15, were any more likely to die than the other horses on the 2012 British Olympic Eventing Team.
Nobody claims that 16yo Twizzel on the 2012 US Olympic Eventing Team was any more likely to die than the 12yo, 11yo and 13yo on the team.
Nobodyl claimed that 16yo Holstein Park Leilani on the Aussie eventing team was more likely to die than her younger peers.
Nobody claimed that the
19yo
Lenamore on the New Zealand team was more likely to die than his teammates.
Can anyone tell me why Hello Bud now runs in NTD’s colours? He did remark at the weekend that he ‘felt sorry for the previous owners’. That made me think that he’d been retired [which I thought he had] and given to NTD. So, was he given to him as a stable favourite who would go hunting or pointing or was it intended that he would carry on racing? I’m just wondering if we have a L’Escargot situation here?
Obviously you are right Miss Woodford, but I meant an "older horse" compared to the average National Hunt runner… and said old
ER
, not "old".
Value Is EverythingI think it’s worth remembering that Hello Bud is pretty lightly raced for his age and NTD has a good record of keeping older horses fresh.
If you look at the majority of National finishers they are mainly battle hardened chasers,i think we can safely say HB fits the bill.Banning Hello Bud from the National may well enable a horse to run who doesn’t stay, doesn’t jump, doesn’t act on the track and doesn’t act on the ground… all for reasons of "safety".
Value Is Everythingif the horse is fit and well which he showed last week that he is he should be allowed run in the national although he wont win because he dosnt stay and you would have to think at 15 he is not going to improve any. The fences are no problem to him though and he would show up for a long way so you would at least get a run for your money but if you back him thinking hes going to win the national you need your head examined imo
ou’re usually spot on SC but this time you are well wide of the mark I’m afraid. Hello Bud’s particpation is likely to add to the event, not detract from it. Agreed there is potential for some negative publicity from sources ignorant of the topic in the (possible) event that the horse comes to harm in the race but as the excellent post earlier points out, he is likely to be at LESS risk than a younger, less experienced horse who is less suited to the fences/track.
he wont win because he dosnt stay
Ohhhhhhhhh yes he does!
It’s just he doesn’t find anything off the bridle at any distance, which is why it sometimes looks as if he doesn’t stay.Value Is Everythinghe wont win because he dosnt stay
Ohhhhhhhhh yes he does!
It’s just he doesn’t find anything off the bridle at any distance, which is why it sometimes looks as if he doesn’t stay.ginger dont get me wrong if the national wsa run at anything up to 4 miles i would back him and you would probably be certain he would be in the money i just think the last half a mile he dosnt quite see it out he has been up there before with 2 jumps to go going aswell as any and then just gets outstayed imo
It would be an absolute tragedy if Hello Bud died while having a well-deserved tilt at the Grand National.
I must admit a shudder went through me when I first heard, shortly after Hello Bud had won his recent Aintree race, that he was likely to be aimed at the National.
It would be awful if he collapsed and died or was otherwise killed in the National but I suppose it could just as easily happen in another race. Dawn Run, Ekbalco and Best Mate spring to mind.
It would be kinder to retire the valiant old warhorse. But then we were having these crises of conscience over Kauto Star not so long ago.
I have my own theory on teenagers running in the National. According to Wikipedia only 3 have won in it’s entire history.
Peter Simple in 1853 at the age of 15
Why Not in 1894 at the age of 13
Sergeant Murphy in 1923 also 13.The last to be even placed was in 1969 The Beeches.
My theory is that as anything gets older it becomes slower. This is true in both homo sapiens and equines.
Looking back through Racing Post records back into 1988 from present day, no teenager has been in any fatalities. This is because speed is the killer and all those that ran in this period, haven’t had the speed to figure. The best is a distant fifth of six.
A 15yo is not an "old" horse in any other equestrian event.
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