- This topic has 76 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 22 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Completely reading that wrong!!!! Think he was talking about how he said he could win the Triple Crown only for him to fall at the first hurdle(the Guineas). In no way was he suggesting what you said………how could he be for God sake the horse has finished second in the Guineas(unlucky to be drawn the wrong side)and second in the Derby now winning an Eclipse.You might not think him to be the horse I do but he’s hardly what you call a disappointing horse compared to say Killer Instinct?? Kinane on the other hand said and I quote:<br>"He has great pace – I was seriously worried about this going but today it was important to get this horse back to where he belongs and that is at the top," Kinane said.
"I really believe that you haven’t seen the best of him. On a good to firm surface you will see an exceptional colt."
I doubt it very much Escorial……………in fairness to them why should they? Of course it would be good for us the public but they look like they have different paths to take now.
I wasn’t really impressed by HW yesterday, even accepting the fact he travelled so well into the straight. I suppose he didn’t need to do any more, but I was hoping to see a more impressive performance in the last two furlongs. It’s something of an irony that probably his most modest performance of the year, wins him a G1.
We may be doing Sholokhov a disservice here also, he was good, but he could just be getting better. For a few strides there in the Irish Derby I thought he had High Chaparral in trouble.
Esc, I understand the door you’re pushing at with the form of RoG & HW, & the fact that you can’t keep making excuses for a horse that finishes behind another….but I still believe it was a travesty that HW got beat in the 2000gns, & that it had nothing to do with the horses ability at all. It’s very logical to use Aramram to calculate collateral form, which does put RoG & HW very close together (both beat him about 5l), but that doesn’t take into account the way HW was powering away in the 2000gns, another furlong & probably would have been 10l or more ahead of Aramram. If HW & RoG were to clash again, & both were well, the only possible way I could see HW getting beaten would be on very soft ground, with RoG seems to handle so well.
Hi Escorial, I think your last paragraph sums up the situation quite well, it’s as much about what people "hoped" he would do…..& that was fuelled further by his peformance in the 2000gns, which was perceived as unfortunate or unlucky. I take your point about Aramram being a miler, but to re-phrase my argument slightly; if J.Spencer had started his run earlier on HW in the 2000gns, imo he would have finished further than 5l ahead of Aramram.
I actually feel sorry for the horse a bit (HW), he probably had the hardest race of any in the 2000gns after being given so much to do, then the effort to get as close as he did to HC in the Derby on softish ground, that’s alot of hard work for no tangible reward. I see Godophin were pinning their Eclipse hopes on HW having had edge taken off of him by those hard races, & I think that’s a fair point. In no way is it an excuse for HW not achieving wonder horse status (btw. I think he’s still genuine G1 class) but those races may be worth considering when looking towards the rest of the season. I believe the 2000gns was his race….& he really should have won it! I still have a belief, that the result of that race, was the one that Coolmore wanted, I’ll leave it at that. He hasn’t been a betting proposition for me since then, & is not likely to be in future races.
With regard to Compton Dragon, do you think that was his true running in the Jersey stakes, if it was, it would make Meshaheer a cracking bet for what looks to be a weakish July Cup. Over the past few weeks a few of the G.Butler horses have been running a bit below par, maybe there was something not quite right there. On a slightly different note, there is definitely something wrong with the E.Dunlop horses.
I am a good bet for the July Cup – 6f ideal!:biggrin:
Godolphin ran Equerry because they knew that the race was cut up and wouldn’t be the best renewal of the Eclipse by a long way. If they had run Grandera both he and Hawk Wing could have had hard races – Godolphin will pitch their best against HW when they know the race and the ground is good. They were merely trying Equerry in G3 company with a G1 horse thrown in.
For me HW still has to prove something. I would like to see him and Grandera at York, and some other decent horses.
Ed Dunlop thing: What went wrong with Helloimustbegoing? Her action looked scratchy the other evening and Frankie slowed her down pretty quickly.
Godolphin won’t be scared thats for sure.
HW and ROG and Grandera and Sakhee besides, I agree Esc, what is there???? They will have to start putting the Breeders Cup forward soon.
*It was a mistake retiring Medicean last year.<br>*Beat Hollow should have stayed over here where the real turf racing is. Or be brought over here.<br>*I hope Golan can return and improve on last year.<br>*I hope High Pitched can get his act together on his favoured ground.<br>*Sulamani is an exciting prospect from France.<br>*The fillies are good but I doubt Kazzia or QL if shes trained on could beat the colts, but you never know.<br>*Otherwise we will have to raid a few stud farms and bring them back.
The 3yo colt form this season is clearly not up to much through Compton Dragon lines. And in the Guineas HW made up 3, ot 7, lengths on ROG.
Interesting how Escorial you can approve your own hunch that HW is soft with absolutely no evidence other than a high head carraige(never stopped King Of Kings Simeon,Montjeu etc) yet you lambast others for believing there is alot more to come from HW.<br> You ask what else bar ROG and HC is there?? I would have no hesitation in adding Queen’s Logic(until she has proved that she has’nt trained on it is only fair to assume she has).Her form with Sophisticat looks quite special now. Sulamani a spectacular French Derby winner. This is five Group1 3 year olds this year…………that aint a bad crop of three year olds. Throw in the fact we have lost the likes of Act One and Dubai Destination and I really do think people are underestimating the three year olds this year. It aint as if they have gotten much of a chance this year anyway…………..season is only really begining. Then throw in top class older horses like Sakhee and Grandera and we have a season to look forward to. And it does’nt end there,the Breeder’s Cup is the biggest meeting in the world……….so look at the American horses. War Emblem disappointed last time but up to then looked very good indeed,Godolphin have Street Cry over there too so these 3 year olds will be tested at some stage in the season and I for one(at this early stage) would not be worried about the lack of quality amongst the 3 year olds. Meshaheer points that Equeery is a Group3 horse and that Godolphin know this. Yet how come they were going to race him in a Group1 at the end of last year only for him to have a foot problem?<br> Your analysis of the 2000 has many flaws. First you fail to read the race. HW put 5 lenghts between him and Aramram DESPITE having nothing else to race against for last last furlong and a half. You state Aramram is just a miler…………I query then why he looked nailed on a winner over 1m1f in the Group1 Jean Prat only for him to thrown his jockey off. He clearly gets a mile and more quite easily so to say HW would only have put another 5 lenghts between them if there was another furlong in the Guineas based on Aramram’s lack of stamina is very dodgy indeed. In fact Aramram started his career off in a mile soft ground maiden………connections clearly not doubting his stamina then.<br> You use Sholokov as an example of how HW might not have improved since his 2 year old career? Care then to explain how ROG beat HW by a couple of lenghts as a two year yet was arguably lucky to beat him just a short head in the Guineas? Naheef also,only beaten 3 lenghts in the National Stakes as a two year old yet has’nt got near the horse in either Classic this year.<br> Will Godolphin be worried about taking him on with Sakhee or Grandera……………….I can tell you they would be foolish if they did’nt. I doubt very much they’ll take Hawk Wing lightly. Indeed in the run up to the Eclipse the Godolphin camp sounded more confident in Hawk Wing than Ballydoyle did!!! But why did’nt they take him on then with the "big guns"? Fair enough Grandera wouldnt have enjoyed the ground(but thats not allowed to be an excuse for Hawk Wing so why should it be for him??) but Sakhee would have had conditions ideal for him,soft ground and a small field. Gallops reports suggest he has really come on alot in the last month or so, so why not take him on? Would a fast ground King George really suit the horse better?? Truth is they know Hawk Wing wont be there.It is not by chance that yesterdays Eclipse field was small……………..everyone with any sort of horse knowledge can see what Hawk Wing is. Maybe they missed their chance yesterday against the horse in that sort of ground,they should be rueing their missed chance.With this as a nice confidence boost believe next time on firm ground HW will laugh at them.
<br>aiden
i note a few times u critiscise sohpisticat but surely she is now racing over her correct trip rather than the 5f and 6f she was racing over last year her form this year suggests that anyway.
mesh<br> i cnat see why retiring medicean was a mistake last years eclipse was a very strange affair indeed and he also was a top of the ground performed and like nen would probably have been withdrawn yesterday
best hollow is a bleeder and runs on medication (latex) so he couldnt come back here
regarding sakhee and grandera i cant understand why they are aiming both of them at the same g1 race surely it would not be to much for sakhee to compete in both the eclipse and kg and horses have competed in the pow eclipse and kg before
connections must have felt that equerry was up to gp1 standard as that is the yardstick for transferring horses to godolphin from other stables
the ground yesterday was not only soft and against the horse it was also patchy and not consistent so i dont think either the style of his win can be held against nor does it entitle him to be called soft there is no firm evidence for this
regarding the statement you have highlighted esc if you read the whole 2 articles (in the paper as against on the web) in conjunction together on pages 2 and 3 what aob was saying is that he wished he hadnt muttered his thoughts about hw befoire the season started and put himself and connections under extra pressure.
and re your comments about the derby barring the fact a roberto style ride would now days bring the wrath of the stewards down on a jockey the analogy is not the same as the stable had won the derby anyway (with hc) soi why sour a horse to beat him if the winner was from another stable then events may have been different
rm hw being out of woodman son of mr prospector will act very well on the dirt the 10f of the bc should be ideal for him as 10f in the usa is not as stamina stretching as 10f over here. note how banks hill won so easily iof at belmont but couldnt stay 10f at ascot also johnson has a 10f american horse here which he has just won a 6f sprint with
Thanks PR. Another thing in HW’s favour is his tactical speed, which should help him cope alright with a strong paced Classic. I’m just not sure his kick can match Street Cry’s – but we’ll hopefully have a better chance to judge HW’s ability at the finish in a truly run race on quick ground before October.
A simple answer is yes!! I take absolutely no consideration of the 11lbs he was "getting" from Imperial Dancer,that does’nt come into the equation. On that ground and considering that he has had two draining races where everything that possibly could have gone wrong has I would be more than happy with his defeat of Imperial Dancer.But are you trying to tell me that this is how good he is?? Are you really trying to tell me that this slowly run race on soft ground did not at all flatter Imperial Dancer?Look at this year’s Tatterstall’s Gold Cup at the Curragh. Rebelline and Bach finished just 7 lenghts clear of Chimes Of Midnight and just 8 ahead of Diamond Trim. This was a similarly slowly run race in soft ground with a small field to the Eclipse. Only a fool would think that Chimes Of Midnight is within 7 lenghts of Rebelline……………same with the Eclipse if you honestly feel this is how good Hawk Wing is good for you. I aint going to try to convince you otherwise but you are way off the mark. These small fields in soft ground will often throw up these close finishes which flatter many of the field. I will be interested to see the time analysis of the race in Wednesdays Racingpost<br> As for Queens Logic I am in no way suggesting what she might do……………she is an unbeaten filly who beat this years Coronation Stakes winner by half a furlong in a Group One race. Might have been last year but she has won comfortably on her comeback and I wouldnt rule her out on good ground against anything. But if were not allowed to take into account what happens last year presumably were ruling Sakhee out as well??
- Total Posts 9
I have to say I wasn’t very impressed either. he looked magnificent as always, but you can’t get carried away with the performance. It must have been the poorest Eclipse field ever.
I think AOB would admit that his comments in retrospect only served to hype the horse up more than was nec so we all though they had a winged pegasus over there, and he is not, ‘just’ a high class horse who probably underperformed in the soft but has yet to prove himself absolutely top class.
Latest quote from AOB:
"Hawk Wing was led out for a walk this morning and seems to have taken his race well.
"The run at Epsom in soft ground and again yesterday when it was testing enough might have flattened him a bit so we will see how he is in a week or two.
"It would be wrong to rule him out of the King George at this stage though I think it would be more likely that he would wait for the International at York.
"I don’t think dropping him back or going forward in trip would be a problem once he gets the fast ground he needs."
The difficulty that 3-y-os have in beating Group performing older horses at this stage of the season should not be underestimated, and although there is more to come from Hawk Wing this was very much more than a Group 3 performance.
Post Mark has been given a rating of 127+ for Saturday’s performance and they say he has shown enough this season to suggest he is capable of 130+.
This compares with High Chapparal’s 126+ for the Irish Derby.
I expect HW to be capable of better still on a firmer surface at 8-9 furlongs.
The most interesting part of all of this is that AOB now claims the Derby did effect his performance on Saturday.
"He hasn’t had conditions to his liking this season and you’d have to say that running in the Derby on softish ground probably had its effect". My impression after the race was that the Derby had had a marginal effect (albeit less so than I expected prior to the race).
The upshot of all this is that AOB is claiming there is plenty more to come… but then he would do wouldn’t he? I happen to believe the same, and that would also appear to be backed up by the raters of the race.
The fact that he has now won two Group 1s (the first rather more impressively than the second) and has been runner-up in two Classics cannot be gainsaid. This is a horse of very high ability and one that will surely to go on to prove himself the outstanding colt of this season.
Well im joining this discussion late again (please no one tell me off this time :biggrin:) The Eclipse was a very very poor Group 1 however all Hawk Wing could do was win it, which he did, IMO it was by far his worst run of the season. The ground definitely didnt suit and i feel given quicker ground i would be surprised if he didnt win another group 1 race. I do feel he is a genuine miler, but on the quicker ground he will get further, and the Breeders Cup is a big possiblity.
I do agree with Esc tho :shocked: the Eclipse form in itself is not good reading, in fact neither is the 1000 Guineas form, besides the front 2. Where lets face it HW would have won easily given a fairer draw.
Beax
I went to Dollys Party it was Fancy Dress
For any 3-y-o to beat any older horse by 8½ lengths at this stage of the season is impressive, particularly so one as good as Imperial Dancer (who has already run to 116).
As this was a Group 1 the weight concession was purely his weight-for-age allowance that all of his age group get and therefore not a factor in the discussion.
Four and five year olds are physically superior to 3-y-o and would of course virtually alway beat them off level weights.
You should also never confuse running in a handicap with an inferior sort of horse.
Halling started out in handicap company before running in Group races with conspicuous success.
I am very impressed with Hawk Wing’s performance, especially given the circumstances.
He is already rated at 127+ (a pound above the Irish Derby winner) and many believe he is capable of better still, which makes him a colt of very high order indeed.
Beaker, far from the Eclipse form not being good, it is in fact virtually watertight. He has beaten the runner up of the Irish Derby and a hitherto unbeaten Group 3 winner in Equerry by five legths. The other two are very highly rated horses also. Indian Creek filling the runner-up spot behind Grandera recently.
Not sure what the 1,000 Guineas has to do with anything, but in the colts’ Classic he was rated five pound better than the colt that beat him.<br>
I’m using Halling as the best example of a horse I can think of that was branded a handicapper before excelling in Group company. Nevertheless, the comparison doesn’t seem a bad one if you are objective about it. Imperial Dancer is clearly this type of horse. Horses that win handicaps off high/top weights are invariably not just handicappers and to brand them such is failure of recognising ability.
Imperial Dancer had recorded a best rating of 106 in handicap company, when winning at Kempton in a field of 18. Halling’s best Handicap mark was 105 at Newmarket in a field of 30. On stepping up to Pattern class at Goodwood Imperial Dancer recorded a rating of 116 in beating Island House in a Listed race, while Halling recorded 120 in the Eclipse (a mark a good half a stone short of Hawk Wing’s 127+). If Halling had performed to that level yesterday, he would have beaten Imperial Dancer by much less than Hawk Wing managed, proving that Imperial Dancer was certainly entitled to line up in Saturday’s race.
If Imperial Dancer does not prove ultimately as good as Halling, he is certainly a horse of the same ilk that is being branded (like Halling) as just a handicapper (by some), when he is clearly much better than that. Imperial Dancer (like Halling) has in fact only run in three handicaps from 29 races. So to call him a handicapper is very far from the reality of it. What he is, is a horse good enough to run to 116 and 120 was good enough to win Halling his first Group 1.
You are arguing against yourself anyway as Hawk Wing has proved he can run to 127+ on going least effective on, which is better than 99.9% of horse can achieve under ideal conditions.
Hawk Wing will be capable of running to ratings in the mid-130s, which is likely to prove superior to any horse seen this season and establish him as one of the all-time greats.
Such ratings are likely to prove well beyond the scope of the similarly rated Rock Of Gibraltar (best rating 126) and High Chaparral (best rating 129), good as both are.
In other words Hawk Wing is already rated above ROG and has much more scope for improvement.<br>
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.