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Kerry National 2009

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  • #12642
    Imperial Call
    Member
    • Total Posts 2184

    (4:35) 256E Guinness Kerry National H’cap S’chase
    (Grade B) €96,400.00 ( 3m – 4yo+ )[MAX 18] NHFrm

    11231 1 Backstage (FR)(148) (GElliott) – ……..11,10
    83f06 2 Ponmeoath(145) (EMcNamara) – . …..11,07
    5-54p 3 Hoo La Baloo (FR)(143) (PFNicholls(in GB)) – ……….11,05
    7111u 4 Royal County Star(141) (AJMartin) – .11,03
    p2400 5 Church Island(140) (MHourigan) – . …11,02
    -3404 6 Northern Alliance(140) (AJMartin) – ..11,02
    7 Star Of Germany(137) (DEPipe (inGB)) – ………..10,13
    -3p45 8 Kerryhead Windfarm(136)(AMaguire) – …………….10,12
    51438 9 Washington Lad(135) (PAFahy) – . ….10,11
    24-f2 10 Florida Express(133) (PRedmond) – .10,09
    p0f0p 11 Himalayan Trail (GB)(132)(JJHartnett) – ……………10,08
    01311 12 Paco Jack(132) (JCrowley) – …………..10,08
    19352 13 Knock On The Head(131)(JCrowley) – . ……………10,07
    u-390 14 Bothar Na(129) (WPMullins) – …………10,05
    0f28u 15 Cool Running(129) (CRoche) – . ……..10,05
    -21p0 16 Dashing George(129) (EMcNamara)-…………………..10,05
    -2782 17 Tasman(129) (LMcAteer) – . …………….10,05
    f5644 18 Anothercoppercoast(126)(PARoche) – …………….10,02
    3f261 19 [1] The Fonze(126) (EDoyle) – ……………..10,02
    3u7-0 20 [2] Ballycullen Boy(125) (DEFitzgerald) 10,01
    81-63 21 [3] Hill Fairy (GB)(125) (JMorrison) – ……10,01
    1f564 22 [4] Line Ball(125) (CRoche) – . ……………..10,01
    1-04f 23 [5] Nine O(125) (PNeville) – . ………………..10,01
    175p9 24 [6] Conem(124) (WJAustin) – ……………….10,00
    -9032 25 [9] Changing Course(123) (HdeBromhead) – …………….. 9,13
    52602 26 [7] Green Mile (GB)(123) (AJMartin) – . …. 9,13
    63uu9 27 [8] Operation Houdini(123) (DEFitzgerald) – . ………. 9,13
    11230 28[10] Aggie’s Lad(122) (AJMartin) – …………. 9,12
    326-0 29[12] Clew Bay Lodge(122) (CAMurphy) – .. 9,12
    /-3f1 30[11] Treacle(122) (TJTaaffe) – ………………… 9,12
    -6439 31[13] Well Run(121) (MrsJHarrington) – . …… 9,11
    52325 32[14] Sanglote (FR)(118) (EGriffin) – ………… 9,08
    13907 33[15] Sonnium(114) (WPMullins) – …………… 9,04
    85113 34[16] Golden Kite(112) (AMaguire) – ………… 9,02
    20323 35[17] Air Of Confusion (GB)(111) (IMadden) – . …………….. 9,01
    85342 36[18] Nipper John(110) (MissEDoyle) – . …… 9,00
    0f315 37[19] Rockers Field(109) (PJRothwell) – …… 8,13
    42510 38[20] Stonehouse(109) (LByrne) – . ………….. 8,13
    p0-00 39[21] Harbour View(108) (PJHayes) – ………. 8,12
    800u7 40[22] Pin D’Estruval (FR)(96) (ALTMoore) .. 8,00

    The National Hunt season starts here! Ponmeoath is going for three in a row but he is rated ten pounds higher than last year. Listowel brings out the best in him but it is hard to see him winning this year. Bothar Na is another former winner in the running but he ran poorly at both Uttoxeter and Galway and it is hard to make a case for him.

    Tony Martin holds plenty of options as is the norm in these big handicaps. Green Mile would look to be the one that makes most appeal but he needs seven to come out to get a run.

    Dashing George was fierce impressive in a novice event here last year when beating the useful Parsons Pistol by ten lengths. His form seemed to tail off when he was pitched into a few decent novice events later on in the season but he likes the track and Eric McNamara’s record at the festival is impressive. He could run well at a big price.

    Star Of Germany is an interesting entry for David Pipe. He’s been winning around the gaff tracks in England so similar to Roby De Cimbre before Galway, it is hard to gauge how good his form is. He deserves respect coming from the Pipe yard though.

    Knock On The Head will be popular after chasing home Ballyholland in the Galway Plate and he’ll could have the assistance of Tony McCoy in the saddle. The other Joe Crowley horse, Paco Jack, is the horse I like most here though. He was a decent hurdler but it looks like chasing might be the making of him. He is only a novice and the trip might stretch him but he really looks unexposed and progressive and he might just have plenty in hand of the handicapper.

    #248652
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Ah IC, I’ve just started work on this race, but I didn’t want to start the thread as it didn’t seem right for a non-irishman to do it.

    Backstage will supposedly only run on Good ground. As this is intended to be his last race for quite a while, maybe they’ll bend that a bit?

    Only scratched the surface so far, but three I like are Dashing George, Florida Express and The Fonze.

    What do you expect the going to be (like) by Wednesday?

    #248653
    Imperial Call
    Member
    • Total Posts 2184

    The track was waterlogged last week and it is normally fairly deep at Listowel for the festival. The weather in Ireland has been good for the last few days or so and that is expected to continue. It’ll be drying out but that will make it tacky. The three miles will take some getting on Wednesday I’d say Gerald.

    #248658
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Yes, that is what I was thinking IC, which is why I inserted that (like) in the question.

    In the last 9 years it has only been won by a horse that has previously won a 3m (+) Chase on three occasions.

    2008 Ponmeoath (Soft)
    2006 Bothar Na (Sft to Heavy) (Hunter chases)
    2000 Mac’s Supreme (Sft to Heavy)

    It was Heavy when Banasan won in 2004 as well.

    I was originally thinking of ignoring a 3m rule, but I might impose one because of the tackiness. I suppose it depends upon whether I like the horse. :lol:

    #248835
    Imperial Call
    Member
    • Total Posts 2184

    Yielding to soft with a few heavy patches according to John Cullen on TG4 Gerald. Could dry out a bit more if this sunshine continues. It might not be as bad as first feared.

    Tomorrow is supposed to be dry and breezy. Always hard to be sure on the Atlantic coast though.

    #248847
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Thanks Imperial, I’ll start working on the race properly today rather than leaving it all until tomorrow.

    I’ve missed a couple of winners by not studying, viz, the Portland for one:

    28Aug09 Down Royal (5Sft ,RPR98)
    We think a lot of this horse and he may go for the Portland if we look like getting better ground over there – David Marnane, trainer

    People who have seen one of my race analyses or Grand National portfolio know that I like quoting trainers, so I ought to have been able to pick this one up, if I had looked. ( I should also have noticed that Equitrack had actually tipped a horse, rather than just making a snide remark about someone else’s post. :lol: )

    #248854
    Grasshopper
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2316

    Love this race, but have a dire record in it. I’ll therefore give everyone a horse to swerve, and let you know that I’m going to back Florida Express.

    The horse will at least stay the trip, relish the likely going (unlike many of those entered-up), has a ‘racing weight’ of 10-9, has bits and bobs of form over fences which make a mark of 128 not hugely punitive, and the trainer probably won’t attract too much attention, so I can expect a reasonable price when Betfair open their market.

    Lay! :mrgreen:

    #248855
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    My first ever bet in it, so I’m looking forward to it Grasshopper.

    Days Age [/color:37yfl9lz] Weight carried OR [/color:37yfl9lz] Going

    Form Figures Horse SP [/color:37yfl9lz] 3m+ Chase winner?

    24 8 [/color:37yfl9lz] 10 5 135 [/color:37yfl9lz] Soft

    5 (Hdle) Ponmeoath 9/1 [/color:37yfl9lz] 3m winner

    19 7 [/color:37yfl9lz] 10 1 127 [/color:37yfl9lz] Good

    6 (last) Hdle Ponmeoath 14/1 [/color:37yfl9lz]

    20 7 [/color:37yfl9lz] 10 13 127 [/color:37yfl9lz] Sft to Hvy

    51 Bothar Na 10/1 [/color:37yfl9lz] 3m winner (Hunter Chases)

    27 7 [/color:37yfl9lz] 12 0 133 [/color:37yfl9lz] Good

    1 Euro Leader 11/2 [/color:37yfl9lz]

    10 6 [/color:37yfl9lz] 11 0 126 [/color:37yfl9lz] Heavy

    2 (Hdle) Banasan 7/1 [/color:37yfl9lz]

    10 8 [/color:37yfl9lz] 9 7 117 [/color:37yfl9lz] Good

    429903621 (Hdle) Native Performance 8/1 [/color:37yfl9lz]

    27 9 [/color:37yfl9lz] 11 9 130 [/color:37yfl9lz] Firm

    55223P63 Monty’s Pass 9/1 [/color:37yfl9lz]

    27 9 [/color:37yfl9lz] 10 6 123 [/color:37yfl9lz] Gd to Fm

    37484 More Than A Stroll 14/1 [/color:37yfl9lz]

    87 8 [/color:37yfl9lz] 10 9 111 [/color:37yfl9lz] Sft to Hvy

    23111 (June) Mac’s Supreme 6/1 [/color:37yfl9lz] 3m winner

    Just done 9 years, as I’m never too sure there are that many strong trends in h’caps.

    Ruby Walsh won in 2006, 05 and 04.

    No horse older than 9. I mentioned on the Blue Square Gold Cup (Haydock) thread, that I thought that time of year (late winter) belonged to older horses, and no one picked me up on it. Maybe they didn’t want to remove my illusion, so that the prices remain good for them? :mrgreen:

    Part of my reasoning was the view that older horses need a couple of runs to come to themselves. Of course, this isn’t the start of the NH season for some horses.

    Last 8 winners had run 10-27 days beforehand. Winner 9 years ago was a "British" raider, and presumably it didn’t have anywhere appropriate to have a prep race.

    Apart from Ponmeoath, all winners had come placed last time out.

    Ponmeoath, Native Performance and Monty’s Pass had come 1st, 3rd and 2nd in the race the previous year.
    The year before his first victory, Ponmeoath came 2nd in another race at the Listowel Festival, and Banasan had fallen in a race the previous year.

    The

    Denny Gold Medal Chase at Tralee

    used to be a trial for this, but I believe I read somewhere that Tralee is being turned into a golf course, or something. Bothar Na and Euro Leader won it, and Monty’s Pass and More Than A Stroll came 3rd and 4th in it.

    7 out of 9 were rated 123-135, but I tend not to pay any attention to that.

    As I mentioned in a prior post, only 3 winners had won at 3m+ before, and their victories in this race all came on soft or heavy going. We’ll go back to Plan A, assume the going won’t be bad, and chuck out all the horses that have won a chase of 3m+ !!!

    Ideally, we are looking for a horse younger than 10 that has come placed in the last month, is priced 6/1-14/1, hasn’t won a 3m chase before, and is ridden by Ruby Walsh.[/color:37yfl9lz]

    #248960
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    No Florida Express.

    1 0-6 Ponmeoath 17 9 11-7 E McNamara P W Flood 145 147 149
    b g Flemensfirth (USA) — Cool N Calm (GB) (Arctic Lord (GB))

    2 11U Royal County Star 49 10 11-3 A J Martin P Carberry 141 136 153
    ch g Magical Wonder (USA) — Belladoon (Phardante (FR))

    3 -00 Church Island 19 b 10 11-2 Michael Hourigan Andrew J McNamara 140 147 162
    ch g Erins Isle (GB) — Just Possible (GB) (Kalaglow (GB))

    4 -04 Northern Alliance 48 8 11-2 A J Martin R Walsh 140 158 160
    ch g Naheez (USA) — Lady Bettina (GB) (Bustino (GB))

    5 311 Star Of Germany 25 9 10-13 D E Pipe Tom Scudamore 137 133 154
    b g Germany (USA) — Twinkle Bright (USA) (Star De Naskra (USA))

    6 P45 Kerryhead Windfarm 17 b 11 10-12 Adrian Maguire S J Hassett 3 136 133 161
    br g Bob Back (USA) — Kerryhead Girl (Be My Native (USA))

    7 438 Washington Lad 17 b 9 10-11 P A Fahy B J Geraghty 135 155 157
    ch g Beneficial (GB) — Kyle Lark (GB) (Miner´s Lamp (GB))

    8 0-P Himalayan Trail 19 10 10-8 James J Hartnett R Loughran 132 76 137
    b g Nomadic Way (USA) — Hindu Lady (GB) (Doon Lad (GB))

    9 311 Paco Jack 17 t 5 10-8 Joseph Crowley R M Power 132 136 156
    b g Soviet Star (USA) — Tocade (Kenmare (FR))

    10 352 Knock On The Head 49 p 7 10-7 Joseph Crowley M P Walsh 131 154 156
    b g Flemensfirth (USA) — Hilldalus (Mandalus (GB))

    11 390 Bothar Na 49 10 10-5 W P Mullins P Townend 129 111 163
    ch g Mister Lord (USA) — Country Course (Crash Course (GB))

    12 28U Cool Running 19 p 9 10-5 C Roche A P Crowe 129 151 153
    br g Glacial Storm (USA) — Strong Wings (GB) (Strong Gale (GB))

    13 O0- Dashing George 164 p 7 10-5 E McNamara A P Cawley 129 150 172
    ch g Beneficial (GB) — Here It Is (GB) (Stanford (GB))

    14 8-2 Tasman 50 9 10-5 Liam McAteer D N Russell 129 155 155
    ch g Definite Article (GB) — Felin Special (GB) (Lyphard´s Special (USA))

    15 644 Anothercoppercoast 49 9 10-2 Paul A Roche T J Doyle 126 154 156
    ch g Presenting (GB) — Parsee (Persian Mews (GB))

    16 6-1 The Fonze 31 8 10-2 Eoin Doyle J R Barry 126 126 156
    br g Desert Sun (GB) — Ultimate Beat (USA) (Go And Go (GB))

    17 7-0 Ballycullen Boy 45 9 10-1 D E Fitzgerald D J Casey 125 – –
    ch g Executive Perk (GB) — Shuil Ub (GB) (Le Moss (GB))

    18 -63 Hill Fairy 32F 7 10-1 J Morrison K T Coleman 125 140 160
    ch m Monsun (GER) — Homing Instinct (GB) (Arctic Tern (USA))

    RESERVES[/color:2qd4qhdx]
    19 564 Line Ball 17 b 8 10-1 C Roche 125 154 155
    b g Good Thyne (USA) — Navaro (Be My Native (USA))
    20 -96 Conem 3 9 10-0 W J Austin 124 97 156
    b g Oscar — Dirty Diana (GB) (Boreen (FR))
    21 602 Green Mile 39 t 7 9-13 A J Martin 123 85 159
    b g Montjeu — Green Bird (USA) (Silver Hawk (USA))

    #248964
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    Haven’t really looked at the race but like the sound of Tasman; The Fonze is interesting, but his price is too big to win it [or it was yesterday].Dashing George seems to want to be another Moscow Flyer ie if he negotiates the fences he does quite well..I see he’s entered in a race the following day in case he tips up at the first fence. The Fonze has an entry for a race later in the week at 2m 3f. Now seems to be quite a bit of money going on the Fonze..16/1 with WH from 25.

    #248992
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Ideally, we are looking for a horse younger than 10 that has come placed in the last month, is priced 6/1-14/1, hasn’t won a 3m chase before, and is ridden by Ruby Walsh.[/color:2b1jxcgk]

    I’ll settle for 3 out of 4 and go for Northern Alliance. :)
    He’s always looked like a horse that wants a distance of ground, over hurdles and fences, and it looks like Tony Martin is prepared to take the wraps off him in pursuit of this big prize.
    Generally jumps well and handles most types of ground, the sharp track wouldn’t be a problem, as he’s already a course winner, and Hills 7/1 seems a more than fair price in what doesn’t look a great race overall.

    #249009
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Ponmeoath

    Going for the hat-trick.

    Ballycullen Boy

    2nd in 2007. Now 1 lb lower. Loves Good ground, but not Firm. Out July 08 – Aug 09. One comeback run in a hurdle.

    Cool Running

    UR last time. Hampered before. 2nd before.

    Dashing George

    Big drawback is that it hasn’t had a prep race. Loves Soft ground. Beat Parsons pistol by 10 lengths Listowel 2008.

    Washington Lad

    Hasn’t gotten home in a few races, but Listowel is a flat, LH oval of 1m, so should be okay.

    The Fonze

    Should be okay going LH as he’s won a couple of times at Lingfield.

    Northern Alliance

    I was trying to oppose horses that ran in the Galway Plate, because I was wanting to back a horse that had been targetted at this race instead. However, Northern Alliance was withdrawn from that race because of the (Soft) ground, and ran in a hurdle race instead.

    Paco Jack

    Doesn’t appeal to me at the price.

    I’ll have a saver on Northern Alliance, small bets on Ballycullen Boy and Cool Running, and my main bet on Washington Lad. (This means I’m not having bets on Dashing George or The Fonze, who I mentioned in my first post. It also means I’ve ended up backing two horses that ran in the Plate. :lol: )

    #249028
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    I think it’s 5/10 for horses that have run in The Plate; out of interest which of the low weighted horses that you’ve chosen did run in it? [she says fingers crossed thinking ‘this will save me a bit of work!].Have now completely changed my mind and will go with Anothercoppercoast 14/1 WH.Knew I’d end up having a small ew on Tasman and The Fonze as well when I got to the bookies. dashing George still bothering me and money is piling on for the Bally horse [yet another bally Bally…]

    #249067
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    I hadn’t noticed that so many winners had run in the Galway Plate. I’ll have to go back and check that, for next year.

    For the record, these are the horses that ran in the Plate this year:

    2nd Knock On The Head
    3rd Washington Lad
    4th Anothercoppercoast
    8th Cool Running
    10th Bothar Na
    PU Kerryhead Windfarm
    UR Royal County Star

    Northern Alliance and Hill Fairy were both declared for the race (Plate), but were Non-Runners.

    In addition, out of today’s three reserves, Line Ball came 6th and Green Mile was a Non-Runner. Pretty much a reunion, but I suppose that is what one would expect.

    edit: Hopefully, you can safely forget about Dashing George, Moe, as the trainer says the horse wants much softer ground. A bit of a relief, as the horse was nagging at me too, as it is from Ponmeoath’s stable, so the trainer knows how to train the winner of this race.

    #249078
    Imperial Call
    Member
    • Total Posts 2184

    Was down in Kerry yesterday to pick up my All-Ireland ticket among other things! :D

    Caught the last few races at Listowel and a lot of the flat lads were describing the ground as good, with one or two yielding patches down the back. Its been dry overnight and that should have taken out any of the dead patches. I don’t think the drying ground will help Paco Jack’s chances because Robbie Power said when interviewed on Monday that he’d appreciate a bit of rain. His price is still holding up well though.

    #249089
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    I live to die another day. :lol:

    Pretty much a success for the trends conclusion, except that the winner hadn’t run in the past month. SP was about 9/2, but was about 7/1 or so this morning. First winning favourite in the race for quite a while.

    Wouldn’t it be grand to see Church Island going stride for stride with Denman in the Hennessy!

    We need to pray for some rain in Ireland, so that we can all lump on Dashing George next time. :lol:

    #249094
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    Thought favourites never ever won this race!! Some bad jumping errors by my horses and Dashing George puts in a clear round. He will, of course, fall if I back him next time. Hope Washington Lad is ok; he didn’t look too good after that fall.

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