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The richest race in German is run today over 12 Furlongs,Baden Baden is the venue,the going will be very testing as its been raining on and off for the past 4 days here,conditions where so bad yesterday we cancelled plans to work our horses,even the sand course was underwater!!
Looking at todays field most people won`t be looking beyond ADLERFLUG, he`s the top rated horse in the field,he clearly acts in extreme conditions and he`s got formlines to beat these,however,if you want a downside it must be the trainer (Jens Hirschberger), in my opinion his horses never run two races alike and at slight odds on i would rather be a layer,ITS GINO as won 7 from 9 races,he has won on heavy but he as 13 legnths to find with ADLERFLUG on latest evidence,i would put him in at about 10-1,LUCARNO shouldn`t be suited by the ground but he as managed a win on soft,at least we know he will run to the line thus he could warrant interest,TEMPELSTERN lacks the class,all the same he will like these conditions and he should be able to control things upfront,sillier things have happened!,KAMSIN is by SAMUM thus i would imagine he too will go through the ground,however,being beaten 7 legnths by the “DOPED“ ORIENTAL TIGER(Will be disqualified) does nothing for me and i think he got the run of the race in the derby,all in all i would rather lay him,OSTLAND is no mug and at `Corals“ 20-1 he would have to be worth a small interest,despite being by Lando i would expect him to go through this ground!!
Conclusion
Its the sort of race where anything could pop up,OSTLAND as three legnths to make up on KAMSIN but thats nothing in this ground so at 20-1 he would be my interest!!
For those looking for a safer bet i would move onto the 7th race and look at ZAUNGAST,this must be the most improved horse in Germany and on recent French form he`s thrown in off a mark of 85!!
Lucarno on a line through Papal Bull has the beating of Kamsin but soft ground is a concern. Templestern’s last run is very solid form as Sixties Icon would most likely start favourite if in this plus he will love the going. Of the home runners perhaps Alderflug is the best.
Kamsin for me.
Run on similar conditions in the German Derby and Alderflug is unbackable at the price.
Lucarno is too hit and miss for me to back him at 7/2.
Talk about saving my pocket!
Couldnt watch any more races after the last 3 bombouts but watched the Betfair graph flow whilst the race went on.
Nice win there for Kamsin and must put here in the frame as one of the best European 1m4f runners on soft or worse ground now.
3 wins out of 3 (albeit one by default)
Pre race
KAMSIN was taking after his father “SAMUM“ by sweating freely,he was certainly the best looking horse in the race and he certainly as scope for more!
ADLERFLUG was calm and took the parade like it was an everyday thing.
TEMPELSTERN as his kinks and wanted to get on with it, he looked like he ran!!
OSTLAND More compact than KAMSIN,looks to have scope to develop further and wouldn`t be surprised to see him go better on good ground!
ITS GINO Big rangy type,very relaxed and certainly looks the part.
LUCARNO Looked a picture but you wouldn`t automatically think he was a group one horse!
In the race:
LUCARNO wasn`t taking any prisoners up front,he looked to be going well enough before hitting a wall in the straight where he stopped to nothing, i would be pretty sure the going didn`t suit him.
ADLERFLUG tracked LUCARNO but in my opinion he was always doing too much,at no stage of the race did i think he would win!
ITS GINO was travelling better than anything coming into the straight but his challenge pettered out,he might be worth a try over 10 furlongs
TEMPELSTERN looked to sulk when he couldn`t get the lead, he was beaten long!!
OSTLAND had every chance but wasn`t good enough, he looks more a group three horse at this stage!
CONCLUSION
First three look nice animals, on a differant day ADLERFLUG could have won but he looked a bit to fresh for his own good,the 5kg he had to give certainly told in the end,with that said,he never shirked the issue,ITS GINO either did shirk the issue or he doesn`t need 12F in that type of ground,at this stage i would give him the benefit of the doubt,KAMSIN as plenty of scope and it will be interesting to see if he fills his potential!!
KAMSIN was being niggled along before they got into the straight, in tiring ground i would say he stayed on best , he looks a real stayer who is progressing with racing!
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