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The Pentagon EW @ 14/1
Latrobe seems to be heading off to the Juddmonte. The Pentagon was held up in rear most of the way in the Irish Derby and finished with a fair old rattle to finish just behind Saxon Warrior in 4th. Kew Gardens has to give 5lbs to the field here for his G1 win last time, which i think was a far weaker race overall than at the Curragh.
Skybet go 3/1 Kew Gardens which is a nice enough price for me.
Minimal rain next week at York so he should get his ground and a trip. Also think the long straight will suit his relentless galloping nature.
Kew Gardens @ 3/1
I was first drawn to Kew Gardens here. He looks to have improved for having Nelson as the sacrificial pacemaker and I assume the tactics will be identical this time for the team.
There was an article about Aidan’s poor strike in the British Races this season and that has to be a negative. The other worry would be rain.
I don’t feel The Pentagon has progressed at all this year. I thought he might be decent this year but he’s never bettered his Racing Post Trophy effort as a two year old.
Kew Garden’s Queen’s Vase win hasn’t worked out very well, with only one win from 14 runs since. The sole winner landed a Thirsk Handicap off 81 and all 13 other efforts result in unplaced results. Looking at the Derby itself, Knight To Behold provided a boost for the Epsom race by winning at Deauville yesterday. The only other horse to win from the Epsom race was Roaring Lion, and Dee Ex Bee has been beaten three times since being runner-up at Epsom.
Dee Ex Bee was beaten by Cross Counter last time and the improving Godolphin Gelding is second fav for The Voltigeur. The question is how strong the form is? Did Dee Ex Bee give anything like his Epsom mark, or did he again run below it? The last four runs on RPR read 119, 110, 110 and 111 for Dee Ex Bee. His run before the Derby was rated 110, so as far as the Racing Post assessor is concerned, the horse has run to within a lb on four occasions and managed to beat it by 8 lbs in the Derby.
If Dee Ex Bee was close to his Derby rating last time, then Cross Counter is surely a shoo-in here, getting 5 lbs from Kew Gardens. Even if Kew Gardens did run to only 111, it still leaves Cross Counter on 118, which is a 1 lb higher than Kew Gardens. The official figures also have Cross Counter 1 lb ahead on 115 to 114, yet the O’Brien horse has to concede 5 lbs to the less exposed horse.
Complicating the issue is the fact that Godolphin also have Old Persian entered and William Buick is shown as the jockey on BOTH him and Cross Counter. Does that mean neither is certain to turn up? The betting suggests Old Persian is less likely to win, seeing he is 14/1 and Cross Counter 9/2.
I am against Young Rascal and Wells Farhh Go as I haven’t seen enough from either thus far. There is huge variation on Southern France and The Pentagon in the market, suggesting one or both may not come to the party.
In the end I went with Cross Counter at 9/2. He briefly flickered at 5/1 as a drifter on Oddschecker today but that was gone when I checked later. I just feel that he should not be double the odds of Kew Gardens, given he is higher rated and getting weight. He should have the greater scope to still improve further and I reckon he’ll be no bigger than 3/1 on the day.
The ground at York is good (good to soft places) at the moment and Wed 22nd forecast is for “Showers” on the Racing Post website.
Cross Counter 9/2 for me
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
9/2 Cross Counter looks a good bit of business now.
Generally 2/1 and less now but no doubt something will go wrong.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Today he (Dee Ex Bee) was beaten again, this time by a handicap winner rated 108 and the margin was four and a half lengths.
That horse Dee Ex Bee was beaten by a bloody good handicapper.
I came on here to do a write up, but couldn’t put it any better. Excellent post Steve, wish I had the 9/2.
Cross Counter will be hard to beat if running to Goodwood form.
Value Is EverythingCross Counter WAS a handicapper coming in. It was clear he was improving and Dee Ex Bee was not living up to his Derby Second.
My initial reaction was scepticism on how well Dee Ex Bee had run and I am still a bit worried because of the Mark Johnston factor. It seems all too often for me that a Johnston horse puts in a head scratching performance that burns the punters.
Kew Gardens let me down when I had him in the Lingfield Derby Trial at 6/1, and then went out and won two better races after his poor effort in the Derby. He looks to have clicked in following Nelson’s pace before galloping off in the style of his Zetland win, where he looked good in beating Dee Ex Bee on fast ground.
I am not sure there is a lot between these O’Brien colts this year and going has played its part along the way. Saxon Warrior had looked to hold the “Nuts”, as Poker players might say, after landing the Guineas but it just never happened for him in The Derby and it generally looks a backfire in failing to put him back to the mile trip where he is still unbeaten at. The two biggest disappointments from last season have to be Delano Roosevelt and The Pentagon in my opinion.
Cross Counter may end the season as best 3YO 12F horse and it’s a pity his LACK of “Nuts” will prevent him from appearing in some contests.
Generally I think it’s a poor year for 3YO horses at the Top level. I get pelters every time I call it a poor renewal of any race but the 2000 Guineas has seen nothing worth talking about at a mile and the 1000 Guineas saw the best filly absent. The Derby looked to be won by the only Guineas runner who stayed the trip while the probable best filly, Wild Illusion, didn’t get home in either Oaks.
Kew Gardens is the biggest danger, I doubt any of the others are good enough. I have put £2 on Nelson at 28/1 with Ladbrokes, simply because he’s a talented enough pacemaker and York isn’t a bad place to slip away from a soft lead and perhaps cause a boil-over. Probably a waste of £2 but it doesn’t always go to plan and there are a few slow looking horses in the field.
Nelson 28/1 for the craic.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Backed Cross Counter at 2s. Obviously wish I was on at a sexier price, but he should be winning this well.
I said even before the Guineas it looks a terrible terrible crop of 3 year old colts. Have a look at the Guineas thread for proof.
I’ve maintained that stance all season.
I’ve backed Cross Counter 5/2 and The Pentagon 8/1 and 7/1 with a saver on Old Persian 16/1.
Value Is EverythingI said even before the Guineas it looks a terrible terrible crop of 3 year old colts. Have a look at the Guineas thread for proof.
I’ve maintained that stance all season.
The very best 3 year olds aren’t bad, just the older brigade are (bar Alpha Centauri who’s bloody good) better at the moment. We’ve been blessed with some real superstars in recent years, so this year’s band of three year olds probably look more substandard than they actually are. Derby foursome, Masar, Dee Ex Bee (despite disappointing since), Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior all around average for an Epsom 1-2-3-4. Cross Counter just as good as those. Knight To Behold put up a decent effort in France, but does he need to lead? Latrobe is a little below average at the moment but is progressive, may do better when returned to 12f. Although they probably don’t look up to much because the older brigade (Poets and Crystal) are claearly real top class. Sea Of Class could still make the grade in the fillies division if temperament holds, but has a lot to find on Enable. Miler colts are a bit of a let down, but things could change. Without Parole currently the best of them but needs a return to his best/fulfil potential. Expert Eye could still do better but needs conditions in his favour. Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion would be interesting returned to a mile because there’s no outstanding older horse in that category either. US Navy Flag is a pretty good sprinter – ditto now James Garfield… But they’re not up to the standard of Harry Angel or Blue Point, let alone the best sprinter since Dayjur – Battaash.
Value Is EverythingI said even before the Guineas it looks a terrible terrible crop of 3 year old colts. Have a look at the Guineas thread for proof.
I’ve maintained that stance all season.
You did i remember. However, as Kevin Blake pointed out on the FFP. It’s also possible they are generally a late maturing bunch of 3yos, and we haven’t quite seen the best yet.
For example, who’s to say Without Parole won’t end up progressing like Crystal Ocean or Poet’s Word has? He’s already a G1 winner.
We are also unfortunate not to have seen Masar since to gauge whether he is by far the best 3yo, a potential star.
I think Old Persian is very overpriced if you forgive his quick turnaround LTO+ also the fact it was a tactical race- 14s about him is quite generous.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Backed Kew Gardens at 3/1 earlier in the week and was happy enough with that, an alarming drift to 9/2 this morning, obviously the support for Cross Counter is partly responsible for that but worrying non the less regards confidence behind AOB’s runners this week.
Saw an article in The Post that highlighted his strike rate was largely unaffected in Ireland (the usual 25% or so) but was down to 9% for his UK runners in 2018, way below his record of recent years. Strange that if it is a bug to blame it’s not affected his home runners like it has his UK ones.
Holding fire on some bets later in the week until I see how his runners perform today, Broome in The Acomb will hopefully give us some clues and if KG performs as badly as the market suggests I’d be wary of backing any of his runners this week.
Saw an article in The Post that highlighted his strike rate was largely unaffected in Ireland (the usual 25% or so) but was down to 9% for his UK runners in 2018, way below his record of recent years. Strange that if it is a bug to blame it’s not affected his home runners like it has his UK ones.
When this thing about O’Brien having something wrong with his stable started, no doubt there was something wrong with a few; but it was at that time totally exaggerated. As you say Pants, strike rate amongst his ordinary horses was still very good. Just that he wasn’t doing so well with his best horses (anywhere, not just in Britain). Overall, this season’s strike rate (with all horses) compares reasonably with recent years. But he just doesn’t have as many good horses this year. How do you think AOB/Coolmore would rather people see their Group 1 horses?
A) Not good enough?
Or
B) Under the weather and better than they’ve been able to show?
B makes sense for the industry Coolmore, to (at that point) exaggerate the problem.
However, since they first said about it the virus has it seems got a whole lot worse!!!!
Although quite a few have come close, of AOB’s runners (everywhere) just 1 win in his last 30+ runners. 3%, compared to his normal 21%.
Value Is EverythingI’ve backed Wells Farhh Go at 11/2 and Old Persian at 16/1, who I see has now shortened up. That one does seem overpriced for an Edward VII winner who should be forgiven his run in the Irish Derby.
Wells Farhh Go 11/2
Old Persian 16/1Kew Gardens at 9/2 looks saver material now, I do still worry about the stable and the penalty but overpriced on form now.
Saver: Kew Gardens 9/2
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