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Grand Sefton 2020

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  • #1510316
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17198

    Priced up by Hills ahead of the entries being officially revealed……

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/grand-sefton-handicap-chase/winner

    Five of the first six home last year, are back again, namely….

    Hogans Height
    Beau Bay
    Flying Angel
    Didero Vallis
    Touch Kick

    …and no reason to see why they can’t be competitive again, but there’s a few others who I’m interested in.

    Modus – Always had a soft spot for this horse, for all that he’s a frustrating type, but if in the same mood as Saturday, he’s got a huge chance, and looks to be a deserved favourite.

    Spiritofthegames – Very consistent type, who’s a Cheltenham regular, but he looks well worth a crack round here. Weighted to be very competitive, and an interesting entry.

    Brelan D’As – Not seen for a year, but he’s a possible for Saturday, and that should give us a clue to where he’s at. Big fan of the horse, and I could see him either loving or hating this.

    San Benedeto – Probably my idea of the winner right now. Represents a yard who’re off to a flyer, on his last winning mark, and enjoyed it here in The Topham. If I knew he was going here I’d bet him just now, but a fair few races he could take in before then.

    Might Bite – He’s obviously on the decline, and in hindsight, he was really only a force for a brief period, but he’s on the whole, a fair jumper, and showed plenty of spark the other day at Ascot. Impossible to rule out over this trip, off of 150.

    Drumconnor Lad – He’s hardly been hammered for his impressive win at Ayr last week, and at 20’s, he looks a bit overpriced. Really impressed by him at Kempton too, and he’s certainly an interesting one.

    Dingo Dollar – He’s ultimately proved to be a bit of a disappointment, but some of his runs last year not without hope, and now that’s he’s been eased a few pounds, I wonder if that, combined with this trip, might see a more positive result.

    The West’s Awake – Wins rarely, but he’s got enough good efforts to his name, and I think that this is his trip. Interesting.

    Mercian Prince – Back to winning ways the other day, and very impressive at the same time. He’d absolutely plummeted down the weights, but if he’s back to his best, then he’s still going to be chucked in on old form.

    Sub Lieutenant – Don’t want to make a tit of myself here, but I thought he was part of Giggs clear out, but still listed on RP as one of theirs, and also still with Henry De Bromhead. Considering his form in the summer, where he wasn’t that bad, his plummeting mark of 143, and also his second to Cadmium here, then that price of 33’s is madness.

    Federici – Bit of a regular round here now, and he’s off the back of a facile win. Pulled up in this last year, but a bit more restraint this time, and that 33’s could be a massive EW Price.

    What A Moment – Jury still out as to whether he’s “gone”, but very well treated, and they’re certainly persevering with him. He’s due out this weekend, and might get a clue then. If I thought that old ability was there, I’d be all over him.

    Far too many to have an early bet right now, and although there’s plenty of ifs and buts in there, still enough to form an early shortlist…..

    Win
    San Benedeto 16’s

    EW
    Sub Lieutenant 33’s
    Federici 33’s
    What a Moment 33’s

    #1510324
    peter .h
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1293

    I’ve long waited for Might Bite to tackle these fences and I’m hopeful they let him take his chance here. Ran a fair race at Ascot last time out and I struggle to believe a step down in trip will do him any harm. If Gas Line Boy can win over this trip I’m sure Might Bite can give it a good go!

    While Paul Nichols isn’t the most natural at plotting National horses (his record is generally poor outside winning it with class act Neptune Collonges); his record in this race is much better. Like yourself I’d be very interested in San Benedeto.

    I feel like I’ve waited forever to see Traffic Fluide run in the Grand National only to be undone by injuries or global pandemics. I’m still very sweet on him for the big one and would be very excited to see him take this in en route.

    Lord Du Mesnil showed plenty of improvement and guts last season and is very much on my National shortlist, however I’d be waiting until nearer the time as he has a few options around this time, not least the Betfair Chase or the London National.

    #1510329
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3629

    I’ve long waited for Might Bite to tackle these fences

    He already has. Well, one. Sans jockey. When he got bored with Native River’s company over the Mildmay fences. A suitably Might Bite-y thing to do.

    #1510331
    peter .h
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1293

    I remember that now! I was there that day and was thoroughly underwhelmed when he unseated. They’ve clearly been eyeing this up since!

    #1510397
    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 574

    I’ll have another look at this race nearer the time, but I do like the look of Annie Mc at 20-1. He’s my early bet in this.

    #1512110
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17198

    Still no bet in this, but glad I waited with Sub Lieutenant confirmed as having left Elliot’s, and What A Moment just crossing the line around now from his Cheltenham run.

    I still like San Benedeto, but he has an entry at Newbury. He’d still be a big fancy if he stayed at home this weekend.

    The other one that I’m liking is Irish Raider, Burning Ambition. Patchy form, and jumping not always the best, but second in The Foxhunter round here, and 25’s looks a fair price. I’ll chance him if he’s in at the five day stage.

    #1512444
    Lemons68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 481

    I haven’t had in this so far, but Delire D’Estruval at 16-1, and Aso at 33-1.

    I haven’t bet either yet, as the owners have other potential runners, so I will wait and see.

    #1512628
    TakeYourTime
    Participant
    • Total Posts 95

    5 day declarations are in as show below:

    Aso
    Lord du Mesnil
    Might Bite
    Modus
    Crievehill
    Huntsman Son
    Caid Du Lin
    Springtown Lake
    Sametegal
    Flying Angel
    Dingo Dollar
    Pink Eyed Pedro
    Touch Kick
    Senior Citizen
    Amalfi Doug
    Didero Vallis
    Beau Bay
    Minella For Me
    Not A Role Model
    Federici
    Swift Crusador
    Sir Jack Yeats
    Pookie Pekan

    Senior Citizen is my number one. Just failing to give 10lbs to Espoir De Romay last time out rates as strong form in my book and he’s got a nice low weight. Out of novice company and straight over Aintree fences asks him a question but I think he’s up to it.

    I will also have an each way dabble on Didero Vallis. He’s didn’t run too badly in this last year and is 2 lbs lower this time around.

    #1512647
    peter .h
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1293

    Glad to see so many left in at this stage. Might Bite looks like a certain runner so I might have a go midweek.

    I’ll wait to see conditions before committing to the likes of Lord Du Mesnil or Aso.

    I never thought I’d see the day Federici win three times in a calendar year, so I can’t let him go this time!

    Let’s hope plenty turn up.

    #1512676
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17198

    Yeah, same here Peter, I’ll definitely be with Federici on the day too.

    I still like Modus, and particularly Didero Valis, but from that long early shortlist, I’ll have an early go on old Dingo.

    Dingo Dollar 20’s EW

    #1512926
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2551

    My pin has landed on Didero Vallis 16-1 ew 5 places. Was 5th as a 6 year old in this last season, as a more mature horse a chance is taken he can better that.

    #1513000
    He Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 738

    If I had a pound for every time I backed dingo dollar I wouldn’t have lost nearly as much as I have backing the bloody thing , I fear I will like VTC have to play him again , there,s plenty old favs in here , I maybe mad but I thought might bite ran well for a long way last time then either blew up or didn’t fin his race ….if I go with the first he maybe some value to

    #1513013
    TakeYourTime
    Participant
    • Total Posts 95

    Well i expected Didero Vallis to be popular each way but to go from 33/1 into 6/1 fav… :wacko:

    I’m happy with 14/1 for Senior Citizen and won’t now be backing anything else each way.

    #1513019
    peter .h
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1293

    Didero Vallis looks solid, but I’m not having a go at that price in such a big field.

    Lord Du Mesnil is obviously more suited by further, but if it comes heavy tomorrow I can’t see him being too outpaced. I’m really keen on his National chances, so I’m very much looking forward to seeing him tackle the course.

    Might Bite is a very intriguing runner and I’ve long awaited him taking his chances over these fences. There aren’t many excuses tomorrow, so it’s really do or die. He’s much bigger than I thought he’d be, but I’m not complaining. I’m really hopeful.

    Federici is a huge price for all he may have pulled up in this last year, but he does boast decent form over these fences at this time of year and is clearly in good heart.

    #1513029
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17198

    Didero was going to be my second choice, but completely missed the price. I won’t bother at 6’s.

    I’ll make Federici second choice EW six places, and I’ll see if I can beat 33’s

    Dingo Dollar 20’s EW
    Federici EW 6 Places

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