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April 11, 2010 at 17:53 #289686
Ballyfitz’s jockey was pretty impressed with him, as well! Backstage, Maljimar and Arbor Supreme I’ll be looking at next year.
April 11, 2010 at 18:54 #289699AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
The big weights only done well because the ground was on the quick side.
Correction the big weights did well (and the trend collapsed today) because the handicap is more compact that it used to be.
More horses now carry over 11st so there is a higher percentage that these horses will be in with a chance at the business end
If that ground was soft no trend would of collapsed, hope this helps.
April 11, 2010 at 19:23 #289701im a bit gutted about ballyfitz .. in a field of non stayers i thought he had a good chance
April 11, 2010 at 19:27 #289705Just watch out for him on soft ground, said his jockey…Welsh National next year?
April 11, 2010 at 21:38 #289746I still think The Package had something to offer until he departed at the 20th – I’m not sure if MDB’s fall hindered him in any way.
I couldn’t understand why the BBC pundits on the rerun said The package was not enjoying himself, he jumped well until his exit and was starting to get into it.
Zip
But rider Lee disagrees on Sportinglife.com:-
Graham Lee (The Package, unseated 19th): "He was never really going and never took to the fences."
Thanks for posting that, Lingfield.
I guess I have to be convinced now *sob*.
Zip
April 12, 2010 at 17:44 #289914Just watch out for him on soft ground, said his jockey…Welsh National next year?
Too short a trip.
I mustve been one of the few to raise his chances on here and got laughed at for it!
He has a very very good chance over the trip if the ground is soft
April 12, 2010 at 20:44 #289953On the issue of the GN book coming to 155%, I note that the Racing Post suggested SP forecast tends to be 1.5% overround per runner. On this basis the GN book would come to 160%, so the bookies were doing the punters a favour!
April 12, 2010 at 20:58 #289956Willie Mullin’s blog thingy said the ground would ‘help Arbor Supreme’s jumping’, so there is an element of doubt over that; Supreme Leaders and all that.
April 12, 2010 at 21:50 #289971Stupid trend – stupidly pointed out by the bbc before the race and….it came true. The last 11 races have now had 9 winners with some green colouring in the silks!
Anyway – Maljimar – That horse was running an absolute blinder. He was staying on into 6th or 7th at the time he fell. Knowing he stays 4m and knowing that he has been seen to run on – I think he would have been in the first 3 as a minimum.
Next year I would look at Vic Venturi. He was brought to a stand still by Eric’s Charm at the first but still got back into a rhythm and kept with the pack on not ideal ground. Then brought down by the melee caused by My Will falling again.
April 14, 2010 at 22:50 #290332Here’s some more stats about trends, concerning winners.
Past Winners performance
2 wins ( both Red Rum )
8 seconds
5 thirds
4 fourths
27 unplaced
37 failed to completeWinners previous performances
3 wins ( all Red Rum ) NB in 1974 he’d won once before, in 77 twice before, hence total of 3
4 seconds ( above horse + L’escargot and Royal Tan )
3 thirds
2 fourths
7 Unplaced
19 Failures to complete
41 making first run in NationalMy favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma
April 14, 2010 at 23:16 #290341Just as a post script, backing horses with a good previous record is probably not a sound idea. Since the war, 41 horses had not run in the National before, another 17 had failed to complete on a previous attempt, leaving only 7 winners, 4 of which had only been unplaced previously. The only 3 horses left are Red Rum, Red Alligator (restarted after Foinavon pile-up to finish 3rd) and Hallo Dandy ( a 4th )! So, leaving aside Rummy, only one winner since 1946 has had a 100% place record prior to winning.
The most common finishing position of unplaced horses that went on to win later is 10th, so how about Joe Lively next year.
My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma
April 14, 2010 at 23:40 #290347Next year’s Grand National = Boychuk.
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