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Grand National 2010

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Viewing 12 posts - 885 through 896 (of 896 total)
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  • #289686
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9327

    Ballyfitz’s jockey was pretty impressed with him, as well! Backstage, Maljimar and Arbor Supreme I’ll be looking at next year.

    #289699
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    The big weights only done well because the ground was on the quick side.

    Correction the big weights did well (and the trend collapsed today) because the handicap is more compact that it used to be.

    More horses now carry over 11st so there is a higher percentage that these horses will be in with a chance at the business end

    If that ground was soft no trend would of collapsed, hope this helps.

    #289701
    BeauRanger
    Participant
    • Total Posts 379

    im a bit gutted about ballyfitz .. in a field of non stayers i thought he had a good chance :shock:

    #289705
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9327

    Just watch out for him on soft ground, said his jockey…Welsh National next year?

    #289746
    Getzippy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1152

    I still think The Package had something to offer until he departed at the 20th – I’m not sure if MDB’s fall hindered him in any way.

    I couldn’t understand why the BBC pundits on the rerun said The package was not enjoying himself, he jumped well until his exit and was starting to get into it.

    Zip

    But rider Lee disagrees on Sportinglife.com:-

    Graham Lee (The Package, unseated 19th): "He was never really going and never took to the fences."

    Thanks for posting that, Lingfield.

    I guess I have to be convinced now *sob*.

    Zip

    #289914
    halfwaytoheaven
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    Just watch out for him on soft ground, said his jockey…Welsh National next year?

    Too short a trip.

    I mustve been one of the few to raise his chances on here and got laughed at for it!

    He has a very very good chance over the trip if the ground is soft

    #289953
    Avatar photoGerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    On the issue of the GN book coming to 155%, I note that the Racing Post suggested SP forecast tends to be 1.5% overround per runner. On this basis the GN book would come to 160%, so the bookies were doing the punters a favour!

    #289956
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9327

    Willie Mullin’s blog thingy said the ground would ‘help Arbor Supreme’s jumping’, so there is an element of doubt over that; Supreme Leaders and all that.

    #289971
    SharkEnergy
    Member
    • Total Posts 38

    Stupid trend – stupidly pointed out by the bbc before the race and….it came true. The last 11 races have now had 9 winners with some green colouring in the silks! :lol:

    Anyway – Maljimar – That horse was running an absolute blinder. He was staying on into 6th or 7th at the time he fell. Knowing he stays 4m and knowing that he has been seen to run on – I think he would have been in the first 3 as a minimum.

    Next year I would look at Vic Venturi. He was brought to a stand still by Eric’s Charm at the first but still got back into a rhythm and kept with the pack on not ideal ground. Then brought down by the melee caused by My Will falling again.

    #290332
    Avatar photoNafsasp
    Participant
    • Total Posts 120

    Here’s some more stats about trends, concerning winners.

    Past Winners performance
    2 wins ( both Red Rum )
    8 seconds
    5 thirds
    4 fourths
    27 unplaced
    37 failed to complete

    Winners previous performances
    3 wins ( all Red Rum ) NB in 1974 he’d won once before, in 77 twice before, hence total of 3
    4 seconds ( above horse + L’escargot and Royal Tan )
    3 thirds
    2 fourths
    7 Unplaced
    19 Failures to complete
    41 making first run in National

    My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma

    #290341
    Avatar photoNafsasp
    Participant
    • Total Posts 120

    Just as a post script, backing horses with a good previous record is probably not a sound idea. Since the war, 41 horses had not run in the National before, another 17 had failed to complete on a previous attempt, leaving only 7 winners, 4 of which had only been unplaced previously. The only 3 horses left are Red Rum, Red Alligator (restarted after Foinavon pile-up to finish 3rd) and Hallo Dandy ( a 4th )! So, leaving aside Rummy, only one winner since 1946 has had a 100% place record prior to winning.

    The most common finishing position of unplaced horses that went on to win later is 10th, so how about Joe Lively next year.

    My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma

    #290347
    Avatar photoZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Next year’s Grand National = Boychuk.

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