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Last 10 years trends…
Aged 7-9
Rated 160 or below
At least 3 runs in the season (including last time in same calendar year)This means the following won’t be winning if these hold up again…
I Am Maximus
Royal Pagaille
Nick Rockett
Grangeclare West
Hewick
Minella Indo
Conflated
Appreciate It
Bravemansgame
Chantry House
Threeunderthrufive
Kandoo Kid
Ida’s Boy
Stay Away Fay
Coko Beach
Vanillier
Celebre D’allen
TwigAs usual, I have probably backed one or two too many but my hopefuls are:
I Am Maximus: Unoriginal but I honestly think he wins if he runs to last year’s level
Iroko: I have a slight doubt about his stamina but I have been on his side since seeing him stroll home on his chasing debut last season and he has been very clearly campaigned with this race as his target.
Perceval Legallois: I favour him of the Cromwell trio and can see him going very well. Not convinced by Stumptown and I fear Vanillier may have had his chance two years ago.
Minella Cocooner: My next best after the favourite. Should stay strongly and looks like he has been laid out for the race.
Bravemansgame: His handicap mark has fallen and maybe it is too late. But if the race sparks his interest, I certainly cannot let a horse with his back class go off at 50/1.
Twig: I have often thought he could go well in the National and he is a big enough price to take a chance on.
Broadway Boy: Becoming a bit of a cliff horse for me. I was going to ignore him but Ginger’s write up has talked me into backing him again (90/1).
I also backed The Real Whacker antepost at 75/1 but he is a non runner.
Decided to add Nick Rockett.
Bet him a few months back, but cashed out when I decided to not go mad, months away. He was 40’s then, and I’ve been kicking myself ever since, but should be able to beat that comfortably today on the exchange.
Best of luck to everyone today
Appreciate It 100’s
Duffle Coat 100’s EW6Pls/230’s
Minella Cocooner 40’s
Nick RockettE/W Twig is my anti post pick and just happy that he’s in the race, stable form is not good though.
E/W Kandoo Kid main choice
E/W Broadway Boy outsider, according to the stats above, hes my only hope.Not my thing this race but asked my partner to pick a number from 1 to 34 so it is Minella Cocooner at number 8
The more I know the less I understand.
Ok so Intense Raffles played again , he’s too big and he has won on good ground so no excuses, Minella cocooner as he’s been targeted at this all year , will stay and weight should be ok , the flyer could well be Three card brag , question is will be stay , if so he’s been mixing with class animals and he’s in here with no weight at all , all have been forecasted
Intense Raffles
Minella Cocooner
Three Card brag
Quite restrained by my usual standards in the National, but have gone for:
Grangeclare West
Hewick
HitmanGood luck to all.
Iroko is one of my biggest bets in this. Has a great chance and imo should be fav. But I would’ve been even more confident had this been 10 days ago. Trainers had three winners, two seconds and a third at one meeting, Bangor on the 22nd. Hasn’t had that many runners since and one more winner. But several have run very badly. If showing his form will be difficult to beat. That said, even though one of the few British trained horses, do hope he does not win. Jockey and possibly trainers should imo have got a holiday after Iroko’s penultimate start.
Value Is EverythingWould love Hewick to win for sentimental reasons but I can’t see him getting the fences (even in their reduced form) or the full trip.
Perceval Legallois has a great chance too. Won a big Irish handicap going away like he’ll be suited by this trip. I was concerned about the going until I saw his action. If anything should be suited by goodish ground. Both Iroko and Perceval have better chances than I Am Maximus.
Value Is Everything
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