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It’s basically a 4m2f Fixed Brush (with spruce garnish) Handicap Hurdle nowadays, but I still love the race.
Since the weights came out I’d say Corach Rambler, Cheltenham Gold Cup third and last year’s winner, and I Am Maximus have run the best trials and Mr Incredible ran well today.
I will be very interested to see who is, isn’t, and is tantalisingly close to making the final 34 cut.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’m def with the fresh horses , I still can’t Galvins last run out of my mind , it screamed he’s was peaking just right ….the negative that fall last year , Stattler to has been a proper hiding job since last year’s GC
Horses with less than 3 preps are 0/23 this century.
2023 winner 3
2022 winner 7
2021 winner 3
2020 abandoned
2019 winner 3
2018 winner 4
2017 winner 3
2016 winner 5
2015 winner 4
2014 winner 6
2013 winner 6
2012 winner 4
2011 winner 3
2010 winner 4
2009 winner 6
2008 winner 4
2007 winner 6
2006 winner 6
2005 winner 6
2004 winner 5
2003 winner 4
2002 winner 6
2001 winner 6
2000 winner 6The Grand National may be easier to jump nowadays, but horses that jump well can make lengths over any fence.
Value Is EverythingInteresting Mike, 3 to 6 is the usual number of prep races this century. Only Noble Yeats exceeds this and in my opinion he was a fluke. Or to be kinder had hidden form.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.When have you started the season from, Mike?
Is it from the previous May?Value Is EverythingThe usual stats are counting the season from August, but from memory only Monty’s Pass ran during the summer months it won.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Just had a quick look through the first 40 in this year’s weights. Only found 3 of the 40 who’ve run less than three times this season… Suspect it was a similar situation in other years. Three runners running against 40 means – to be fair – you could only expect this group to win 3 in every 40 renewals.
Therefore it is hardly surprising none have won in the 23 year time frame.Value Is EverythingI think Mr Incredible is more likely to whip around at the start or look the winner two out and find zilch in the finish – than actually win. No matter how well in he is.
Value Is Everything‘When have you started the season from, Mike?
Is it from the previous May?”The prep runs does include races in the Summer.
On the definition of jumps well, far from my expertise to be honest but I hear some people talk about the aesthetically pleasing showjump type jumps of some horses as them being good jumpers (Bravemansgame springs to mind but Thistlecrack also when he took to chasing) but I think we’re starting to understand more through the data now that it isn’t an efficient way of jumping, not least because obstacles are becoming easier to navigate without getting high and long in order to make the sport safer. Tiger Roll was a nimble jumper but I don’t think he got very high over his fences but he was quick in and quick away and that away part is quite important too as its been referenced numerous times this season including by connections of the horse that Gerri Colombe is a perfectly good jumper but he doesn’t land running and in those types of scenario you probably lose more lengths sorting yourself out on landing than you do for ploughing through one but not losing much momentum. I seem to recall Magic Of Light (rip) infamously landing in one of the fences, was it the chair? Didn’t stop her pushing Tiger Roll very close.
You can understand why Mr Incredible would only run once given his rating. He’ll be on the cusp of the cutoff, try and plot him and get dropped and thats risky, do what he did yesterday prior to the weights and hes no chance of winning the National. Same comments apply to Corach as to him, tough race in the mud this close to Aintree may not be ideal but hes had a very light campaign so may be ok.
How Timeform view the National before Cheltenham
TIMEFORM WEIGHT ADJUSTED RATINGS
183 – VANILLIER
182 – DELTA WORK
181 – CHEMICAL ENERGY
181 – MAHLER MISSION
180p – MONBEG GENIUS
180 – CLASSIC GETAWAY
180x – FAROUK D’ALENE
179 – ELDORADO ALLEN
179 – GALVIN
179 – PANDA BOY
179 – SALVADOR ZIGGY
Selected others
178 – CONFLATED
178 – CORACH RAMBLER
178 – NOBLE YEATS
177 – CAPODANNO
177 – KITTY’S LIGHT
177 – MR INCREDIBLE
177 – THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
176 – HEWICK
175+ – NASSALAM
170+ – LATENIGHTPASS
After the festival
Timeform adjusted ratings for 2024 Grand National
CORACH RAMBLER – 183
MAHLER MISSION – 182
SHAKEM UP’HARRY – 182
MEETINGOFTHEWATERS – 181p
LIMERICK LACE – 181+
CHEMICAL ENERGY – 181
DELTA WORK – 181
GALVIN – 181
I AM MAXIMUS – 181+
CLASSIC GETAWAY – 181
VANILLIER – 181
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Both sets of figures came from Sporting Life’s website. Don’t know how they worked it out and why Delta Work is missing or Gavin improved. Last run by both was at Navan February 11th (same race).
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Both Adamantly Chosen and Classic Getaway qualified today after running at Navan. Mullins says they both go for the National.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.
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