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I’d started a thread on this after this years renewal, but heart wasn’t in it after this years, and I quickly cashed out my Galvin bet. I still like him, and no way I wouldn’t bet him, but I’ll wait and see if he actually comes back after his injury
I’ll concentrate mainly this far out, on those that haven’t been round there before.
I’d start off with Kitty’s Light. Unlikely that he’s one I’d bet, but amazed he’s not Fav
First up for me, after today, is The Shunter. Very interesting contender last season, and was never far off my radar before his late withdrawal. Certainly on a nice mark of 148 right now. Others in the JP colours who could obviously go this route, are I Am Maximus, and Thedevilscoachman. I particularly like the latter.
Another versatile type, who takes in all sorts of races, like The Shunter, and I put up early last year, is Stratum. At no point did he look like going this route last season, and was a bit of a daft shout. As it’ll no doubt be again. However, I do hold out hope that they’ll send him chasing again (has won over 3 miles 1). He’s been disappointing this season on the flat, so you never know. Every chance he’ll never ever make it onto any bookies lists, never mind actually run in it.
Stablemate Stattler might be a more realistic call, and he’ll always be in the back of my mind. Big question mark over him though, after his dismal
effort at Cheltenham.Another Mullins contender could be Kilcruit. Certainly disappointed me in The Galway Plate, but basically I think he’s got a big prize in him this season, and I think he’s still got plenty to offer. I was going to give
Fighter Allen a good word, but considering his jumping, maybe not, and I get a right row from Greenasgrass lolThere’ll be plenty more from the Mullins yard come to light, and the same can obviously be said for the Elliott team.
Of his team, I’m really tempted by the 66’s for The Goffer, despite slight reservations about the trip, while I’m at a loss as to why Conflated isn’t quoted. He’s got exactly the profile I’d want for this, and he’s very high on the shortlist.
Other potential Irish Raiders who appeal at this stage include Hewick, and Lord Lariat
I always like, as per, to have a Sandy Thomson runner in my sights, but I’d have to see more this year from +Empire Steel, but he’s not entirely ruled out.
Others from these shores of interest include Beauport, Coopers Cross, and Moroder. Beauport is a very unpredictable character. He can be really bad, but when he’s good, he’s good. Coopers Cross and Moroder are just a very likeable pair, and although I think Coopers Cross is marginally better, I’ve slight preference for Moroder, as he’s not been round there before. Tried to keep it strictly to those who haven’t went round there before, but I just like Coopers a lot.
I’m mad keen on Midnight River for Newbury, and he’s a horse I’ve really grown to. I’ll see how he gets on there first, but he’s got possibilities. Trip would be a slight concern, and though the sane would apply to Gesskile, I’d be willing to forgive him his Topham flop, and he’s another who’s been round there, who’s still one that I’d consider.
After all that, it’s still the first time in at least twenty years, that I don’t have a bet, but in no immediate rush either. First dilemma is whether to bet The Goffer or not, before he runs in The Munster National
Got an early shortlist though, and still scratching my head as to why Conflated isn’t quoted………
Conflated
Kilcruit
Moroder
Stattler
The Goffer
The ShunterAnyone know of situation with Farclas ,I had a very small AP bet on him last year but he pulled uo lame month or so before . Have not seen him listed on memorials so can only assume hes still knocking about . Anyone know if hes still at Elliots yard .
I’m hoping Lucinda will see the light and abandon her Grade 1 strategy to train Corach Rambler for the race again. Even with top weight he’d be single figures on the day, making the current 20/1 fine value.
One I noted last season for the race was Certainly Red who was withdrawn today at Chepstow. He went through a fine period of improvement, then seemed to just lose his form at Ascot. He ran well enough in the Bet365 at Sandown, but a mistake at a crucial stage kept him out of the money. He’s with a small trainer, Lydia Richards, and might well be on offer at a value price.
Steeplechasing I doubt Rambler will be running in the GN , his love of Cheltenham and the strong form lines of last seasons 4 miler will see him in the GC surely , I’ve tickled him e.w and will do again , however will she run Ahoy Senor here ?
I was happy to see him win yesterday but I cannot have The Shunter for Aintree. He will be 11 next year and he is not the most fluent jumper. There will almost certainly be a younger, better handicapped horse than him in the 34.
Mullins has won two huge handicaps with him , also given JP two nice punts , I’m hoping he has a nice field shortly , owes nobody a thing
Backed Kitty’s Light the moment the market opened at 33’s then watched in awe as he completed that incredible double. Like you, Bobby I’m amazed he’s not favourite, even after yesterday’s flat run.
My main worry with Kitty is his mark. He simply does not perform between October and February. Will his mark drop between now and February such that making the (now even more elusive) cut is unlikely? If he was mine I’d be getting one run in him during the winter then putting him away until the weights.
Other than that I am incredibly bullish.
Yes Peter, I’m of the same opinion about his mark, I would run him over hurdles until the weights come out.
HDLK, As Ahoy Senor’s biggest fan even I doubt he will run there and would not win anyway. He’s much too gangly and needs time to organize himself.
With Corach, she believes he has improved again over the summer and has ‘something special’ that, even with her psychology degree she cannot explain. His first target The Betfair will go a long way to proving her theory one way or another.
I hope he has come on again, it would be great to see, I just think it will need to be some level of improvement to better what should come from The Real Whacker who is two years younger and already 3lbs higher. His achievements for a three-race novice haven’t been lauded nearly enough, and I think he is much, much better Gold Cup bet at 20s than Corach Rambler at 20s.
Back to the National. He’s won it idling, but will need to carry a stone+ more, but his chance is considerably better I think, especially with 6 fewer runners than normal. And the National is worth close to £200k more than the Gold Cup. We shall see.
I was all over Corach Rambler last season as I thought he was well handicapped. He isn’t anymore. The race has changed so the unpredictability has for the most part ebbed away. You will likely need a well handicapped horse with younger legs i.e. 7 to 9 year olds, 10 as a maybe. The last 7 winners were 9,7,8,9,8,8,9
Steeple we’ll know more once we see Fastorslow and GDC , if the form holds up then Rambler will be at Cheltenham I’ll be taking GDC on first time out , it pays to take GC winners on , I reckon Ahoy would have a chance , front runners are suited to the race , he,s a dodgy jumper but if he got round … He’s also a spring horse who likes Aintree
HDLK, fair enough. My idea of National winners since they adjusted the fences a few years ago are horses you hardly notice jumping on park courses – not at all flashy or fast over a fence, not low and not high, just going one side to the other without losing ground. The big horse just isn’t built for that, and I doubt they’d ask him to make the running. But, we shall see. He’s reportedly on target for the Charlie Hall and in fine shape.
He’s not a horse to touch in the autumn though , we’ll see , Tizzard has mentioned Eldorado Allen might end up here , he,s a classy horse , profile similar to Neptune collonge , I might have to tickle him
“I’m at a loss as to why Conflated isn’t quoted. He’s got exactly the profile I’d want for this, and he’s very high on the shortlist”
Of course Conflated will run here, Gordy’s gold cup failures always do.
They are hinting Minella Indo is being aimed at this.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Of the Elliott horses I’d be more interested in Chemical Energy. I think Mike has it spot on:
” You will likely need a well handicapped horse with younger legs” as it becomes just another handicap except the fences are green not brown.Staying on this side of the pond, Busselton was messing about last year wasting a year waiting to be old enough to run in it.
I reckon you need a young, high 140s horse now- high enough to be sure of getting in, low enough not to get your head turned by gold cup notions. I also agree with Joe’s assessment of the type of jumper you need.
Stumptown and Amirite might fit the bill but need to get thevwheels back on the wagon and go up half a stone. I like Gevrey but he’s not going to make the cut under the new rules.
Of the Mullins massive, I was keen on Authorized Art but the owner sounds very dubious. I like Franco de Port, but his chance might have been last year when connections fixated on Paris and didn’t run him at Aintree. Adamantly Chosen is interesting- a bit of class without being good enough to seriously try to win the gold cup, breeding suggests he might stay.
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