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I don’t know if Seabass will stay or not but there is nothing in his track record to suggest he won’t stay and as with most horses pedigree analysis will not tell you a great deal as to whether he will get beyond 3 miles. Papillon was also campaigned over shorter trips. I suspect a charity will be the last thing on Walsh’s mind when selecting which horse will give him the best chance of winning and if Katie Walsh is out of the equation Seabass is certainly worth considering.
"RedRum77" wrote: I think the be another reason for Ruby to pick On His Own, wasn’t Prince De Beauchene or On His Own going to run for a charity. With Prince out that means On His Own runs for the charity. Surely Ruby would be this charity best hope for getting the best place possible.
Ruby may be the charity’s best hope, but if Ruby doesn’t believe On His Own is his best chance he won’t ride it.
Synchronised will be 10 years old by the time the Festival comes round and while he won a poor renewal this tear you’d have to think there could be a few novices who could make winning a second one fairly difficult.
If he keeps going the way he is going he’ll line up at Aintree according to Jonjo last week and it will take some horse to beat him.
He was just getting into top gear when they hit the line in the Gold Cup over this trip he’ll have all the time in the world to get going and when he does nothing will live with him.
Most of those carrying less than 11st look pretty desperate Sunnyhillboy looks thrown in with 10lbs 5 lbs but he may not run. He’s not a big horse and the worry is will he take to the fences and with him that’s not a gamble I am willing to take.
Midnight Chase can jump for fun but getting an uncontested lead at Aintree is never easy. If 2 or 3 take him on early he may end up racing them instead of lobbing along and that could put paid to any chance he has.
The horse I reckon could shake up Synchronised is Malcolm Jefferson’s According to Pete. He likes to be up there but usually settles behind the leaders without to much fuss and he jumps well.
Whether the 12lbs he gets from Synchronised will be enough or not who knows but I see him as the main danger.
1.Synchronised
2. According to peteHGM,
I’m not so sure he’ll have all the time in the world to get into top gear at all. They won’t be going as fast as in a Gold Cup but they won’t be hanging around on the run to Becher’s first time, and if he goes through the tops of these fences like he can do over conventional ones he could struggle to keep up imo. If he’s in touch at Becher’s second time around he could have a say but I wouldn’t back such an error-prone jumper in the National. He’s never fallen over fences but we saw what happened The Midnight Club (who I fancied strongly) last year when he couldn’t get into a rhythm. Throw in the fact that it took him a while to get over the Lexus and I find it hard to fancy him. If he jumps with fluency then as you say he should be in the shake up, but it’s a big ‘if’ for me.
The horse I reckon could shake up Synchronised is Malcolm Jefferson’s According to Pete. He likes to be up there but usually settles behind the leaders without to much fuss and he jumps well.
Whether the 12lbs he gets from Synchronised will be enough or not who knows but I see him as the main danger.
You’re a smart man, Hurdygurdy. I’m extremely bullish over this horses chances. Lumped on him since the entries came out.
Not so sure either Synchronised or According To Pete are that scopey and According To Pete’s best form is with some cut in the ground.
Paddy Brennan to ride Vic Venturi if he gets in. More reasons to get excited about him.
O’Regan is on board Black Apalachi once more, which i must confess surprises me as Giles Cross would have been my first guess over his preferred ride.
Do you reckon Giles Cross will even run if the ground comes up good to soft?
the money seems to have been going on chicago grey today, now the only thing about him for me, is he is a grey
vf
Giles Cross is highly unlikely to be going for the National unless we get a downpour over the coming weeks. Shame as he is the type to love those fences and would have been poetry in motion under O’Regan.
This makes my mind up its dear old Black Apalachi again and Killyglen.
Martin
Paddy Brennan to ride Vic Venturi if he gets in. More reasons to get excited about him.
O’Regan is on board Black Apalachi once more, which i must confess surprises me as Giles Cross would have been my first guess over his preferred ride.
Do you reckon Giles Cross will even run if the ground comes up good to soft?
Hi Peter
Personally I don’t think that Giles Cross will line up in the National. I don’t think he will get the ground he needs, and I think Victor Dartnall is only being slightly tempted because he is 6lbs well in with the handicapper. To be honest, I’m not confident about him getting the trip. The furthest he has won is 3m4f, although he was second over 3m6 in the Welsh national and second in the Eider over 4m1f, but he was pretty much out on his feet at the end. I think he will head for the Irish national.
I think that is why O’Regan has plumped for Black Apalachi. I’ve always thought Black Apalachi looked a National type, and I bet him three years ago when he unseated when going well, and two years ago when he ran a cracker to be second. I can’t bring myself to bet him this year, despite his good return run at Fairyhouse in February, after being off for two years. Good horse as he is, I don’t think a 13 year old will win this. The last one to manage that was Sergeant Murphy in 1923.
Vic Ventura’s run at Leopardstown in February, didn’t look like the Vic ventura of old to me. He had run, and won twice, in a couple of NH Open races in January, which didn’t ammount to more than egg and spoon races, but they should have had him fit enough. If he can bounce back to some of his 2011 and 2010 form, he would have a squeek, but it’s too much of an ask for me to have any confidence.
I’ve already nailed my colours to the mast earlier on here with Seabass. I said I didn’t think the 20s would last…..best priced at 16s now.
Best of luck peter, this looks tougher than usual this year,with lots of very fancied runners. Lets hope we can bag one.
In the RP story where Dessie Hughes outlines riding plans, there is no mention of Roberto Goldback, so he may be out. The Waley-Cohens’ Roulez Cool also listed as doubtful on the RP card.
I think in terms of numbers, Giles Cross would make it, but doubtful if the weather will make it worth their while. Some rain is forecast this week, but possibly not enough. Shame, as I would like to see him give it a go.
My (uninspired) two against the field at the moment are Cappa Bleu and Killyglen.
I have narrowed it down to these few horses
According to Pete 40’1
Seabass 14’1
Rare Bob 33’1
Mon Mome 40’1
The Midnight Club 22’1
Sunnyhill Boy 33’1
Killyglen 16’1
Always Waining 40’1
The Package 25’1The four in no particular order that I will look more closely at are
Seabass
The Midnight Club
Killyglen
The PackageI have narrowed it down to these few horses
According to Pete 40’1
Seabass 14’1
Rare Bob 33’1
Mon Mome 40’1
The Midnight Club 22’1
Sunnyhill Boy 33’1
Killyglen 16’1
Always Waining 40’1
The Package 25’1The four in no particular order that I will look more closely at are
Seabass
The Midnight Club
Killyglen
The PackageThe trouble with The Package is that he alwys canters along at the back, not a very safe proposition at Aintree, and he may remember his time two years go which he didn’t seem to enjoy
My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma
Not so sure either Synchronised or According To Pete are that scopey and According To Pete’s best form is with some cut in the ground.
Another thing I like about Synchronised is his ability to run any ground. I really think we could have another L’Escargot in the making.
My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma
Good luck with your selections venjee, especially Seabass.
Word of caution for The Package, not a certain runner according to Pipe, last race has taken a lot out of him. Market on Betfair also suggest he won’t be going…….although obviously that can change.
Here’s a list of my bets so far.
Seabass 36’s to 65’s
State Of Play 85’sI’m hoping to lay off a good bit of the following, really need a couple of them to go though, otherwise I’ll have to lay off most of my Seabass bet, though I do have a few quid on him at The Bookies.
Midnight Chase 100’s to 180’s (market looks ominous)
Arbor Supreme 110’s to 290’s (as above)
Psycho 300’s to 500’s (still 450’s so prob Fairyhouse bound)
Any Currency 180’s to 310’s
Ballyvesey 390’s to 1000’s (hoping he sneaks in)
Tharawaat 330’s to 800’s
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