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I’ve backed Kemboy ew but hope Al Boum Photo wins so Matt Chapman is forced to interview the winning jockey and lad leading the horse up and make a massive thing of the hat trick.
AL boum price tightening this morning , I’ve got enough in him anyway , I really think Native can be in the first 3 , if he gets in a rythem he,ll test the jumping of a few , lostintranslation was my main play early in the season and I’ve topped him up as he,s to big , good luck all
My thoughts:
Al Boum Photo – Obviously solid and deserving favourite. My fear is that this race might be run much more strongly than the two previous years and I’m not sure that will suit him.
A Plus Tard – I can see why he’s in as a main danger. Connections in form. Think he might be just a little below what’s needed to win. Place prospects.
Aso – No hope
Black Op – No hopeChamp – bit of an enigma really. Allaho franked last year’s form I suppose but I would have my doubts about him.
Frodon – very good course form, got a bit of a freebie in the King George because the standard was so poor but can see him leading around the home turn and we will see then if he has the stamina needed. It’s a different story beating handicappers.
Kemboy – another enigma of a horse. Has ran in this twice previously. Again I think he needs to be able to dictate up front and don’t think he will be able to. Has the ability to win this I think but everything has to go perfectly.
Lostintranslation – No hope
Minella Indo – Disappointing season so far, but really the type to do well today and be right there in the shake up at the end.
Native River – will lead them a strong gallop with Frodon and for a long time will look like the Native river of 2018 but can see him fading to finish 4th or 5th.
Royale Pagaille – vastly overrated based on his last performance. Won in the slop in haydock against a very average field.
Santini – they will go way to fast for him. Very similar to Don Poli.
My prediction top 5
Minella Indo
Al Boum Photo
A Plus Tard
Kemboy
Native RiverKemboy is this year’s beef and salmon , very good horse in Ireland …hates Cheltenham , surprised champ is going out as I thought he and a plus tard would be the ones to tighten
Santini. Got his ground. Back at his favourite track. Visor on for the first time. What’s not to like?
The fact he,s ran 3 shockers this year and is to slow ….certain horses are going to be put out of there comfort zones by Native today , santini was last run and same will happen today …they’ll be strung out like the washing
First 3 would be nice and he is capable of it because of his love of the track and the faster they go the better. And if the visor helps him travel he is not out of this.
I think if Santini starts now then he has a fair shout of finishing in the top 3 (in the 2022 running)
HDLG course form and different ground is important and shouldn’t be ignored. Look at Put The Kettle On.
Course form …then surely AL boum then or plenty of the others in the race who have won here, more times than santini , ground is good to soft not rattling hard , as I said last time Native had him getting niggled early in the race , I see the same will happening today
I haven’t discounted Al Boum Photo. He is one of my bets.
Native River will be a non factor today imo. Don’t like him at all. In fact i’d be surprised if he will keep up with Kemboy and Frodon for that long, if at all. Kemboy likes fast ground, Frodon quick enough for a Ryanair. NR loves the mud. This race and the Sandown race couldn’t be more different.
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