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…having said that :)
Just posted this on my blog:
Seeyouatmidnight has been declared to run on Saturday in the Betfair Chase. He’s 7/1 at the time of writing and well worth an each way bet.
But the best value lies in his Cheltenham Gold Cup odds of 50/1 (Betfred and Stan James – who have an awful site for finding ante-post bets: it’s under OUTRIGHTS).
SYAM is classy and versatile. He hammered Bristol de Mai last time over 20 furlongs at Carlisle and also finished last season with a 3rd in the Scottish Grand National over 32 furlongs. He’s had just 7 chases and could be improving fast if his Carlisle win is taken fully on merit (I just have a slight doubt that Bristol De Mai ran his race; he never looked comfortable that day, but that could be simply because SYAM never allowed him to. The winner should have the benefit of the doubt until there is more evidence.)
His big festival price will have a fair bit to do with him being trained by a man unknown much beyond the Scottish Borders where he trains fewer than 20 jumpers – Sandy Thomson. Sandy seems determined to campaign the horse seriously as a stayer, although his Carlisle win suggests he could run a big race in the Ryanair.
Anyway, 50/1 should look great value after Saturday, even though Thistlecrack is a beast from another planet and should win the Gold Cup. It would nice to have a backup at a long price in the shape of Seeyouatmidnight. Let’s hope he does not live up to his name.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10659384/lydia-hislops-road-to-cheltenham
It is rare indeed that I find myself agreeing with Lydia Hislop (The daft price of Thistlecrack, and the value of Djakadam)
Thistlecrack’s hurdles form and impressive chasing debut imo made him value @ around 11/2, odds shortening to around 7/2 prior to a second run. However, there’s no getting away from the fact his jumping (although generally good again) showed some flaws. In particular a problem at open ditches/when not leading. Probability is his jumping will improve, but the possibility it won’t be good enough come March has undoubtedly grown and therefore chance has surely diminished slightly. Why then haven’t odds increased?
Am still glad I backed him @ 11/2, but have since laid a bit back. So agree with Lydia, to a certain extent Thistlecrack is now poor value.Has Lydia been reading my thoughts on Djakadam?
GingersJumpers Octoer 29th:
Djakadam definitely did not have any excuses in either of his Gold Cup seconds.
Coneygree has had a hock injury since and only one full season in his last three needs to be taken in to account when assessing prices. Is he going to remain sound and if so is he going to return as good as ever? May even need to improve, at the age of 10 that’s a bigger ask… Although lighter raced animals sometimes do. Djakadam is younger and seems sounder.
When Coneygree beat Djakadam the latter was only 6 years old and is young enough to improve again at 8. When a horse finishes runner-up in the same race two seasons in a row, punters tend to think it’s run to the same form. Road To Riches was only 2 lengths behind Djakadam in the 2015 Gold Cup, beaten 6 1/2 in the 2015 Punchestown Gold Cup. At the time many people thought the pair well below form because Don Cossack was 7 lengths in front. Last year’s Gold Cup suggests otherwise. I believe Djakadam improved a bit (with RTR a little below his best) at Punchestown and improved again at Cheltenham, the 4 1/2 lengths 2nd to The Don being imo better form than 1 1/2 lengths 2nd to Coneygree.
Djakadam also beat Valseur Lido 12 lengths in the John Durkan over 2 1/2 miles, so he’s no sluggard. Although runner-up improved afterwards when 6 lengths 2nd to the easy winner Vautour in the Ryanair (with Road To Riches beaten a total of 6 1/2 by Vautour)… ease of victory goes some way to confirm how good Djakadam is. imo Not quite as good as Vautour – but that one’s an unlikely stayer. Not as good as Don Cossack – but that one’s a doubtful starter. Not quite as good as Cue Card – but that one will be 11 years old and not absolutely sure to stay either. Bit better than Coneygree – for reasons above…
…And yet Djakadam is top priced 16/1 compared with Coneygree 12/1, Cue Card 10/1, Don Cossack 10/1.
Unless bookies know something I don’t about Djakadam’s soundness and/or likely target (2m5f would be ok on soft/heavy, but not on good or good-soft) 16/1 is too big to ignore imo. Deserves to be priced up at least the same as Don and Cue.
Value Is EverythingI disagree there Ginger…I think (and have done for a while) that Djakadams 2nd to Coneygree was a better effort than last year…
For one he had his preferred softer ground against Coneygree and he hadn’t had a blip in his preparation like his tip up before last seasons Gold Cup…
My theory also seemed to be confirmed when Ruby Walsh was on Racing UK the other night and they were discussing the staying division…he said against Don Cossack he just didn’t seem to pick up like he did the year before and also mentioned his prep run fall…
I still think there’s a case that the three who looked progressive when chasing Coneygree home didn’t quite recover from what was a brutal race…RTR and Holywell certainly haven’t kicked on from there…it’s why I also think the time Coneygree has had off will be a bit of a blessing in disguise…
All that said…if I was backing one each way at this point it would be Djakadam!
There’s been some utter tosh talked about Thistlecrack’s Cheltenham performance by people who should know better – pros who are paid to assess form and offer opinions. Sean Boyce called the Cheltenham performance ‘awful’ and suggested 8s for the World Hurdle is his preferred bet. Kevin Blake thinks the horse will never be a staying chaser jumping as he does (effectively and efficiently most of the time) and that he should be aimed at the QM.
Have read a few more pro critics on twitter. Most profess to love Thistlecrack and then begin all the buts…
The facts are these:
He jumped 18 fences at Chepstow error-free, most of them with a highly accomplished technique.
He jumped 19 fences at Cheltenham error-free, most with a highly accomplished technique.
He made an awful error at 1 fence at Cheltenham. Arguably the only thing more miraculous than his survival of it was how easily he recovered.
So, he’s jumped 37 out of 38 fences error-free, and has an engine the size of the moon. Why do I get the impression that half the racing world thinks he is ill-suited to a Gold Cup campaign?
I don’t agree with those “pros” Joe, but aren’t you looking at it with rose coloured specs?
All depends what you call “error free”?
It wsn’t just one ditch Thistlecrack stood off too far. First circuit landing on top the first and only just getting over the second. Isn’t taking off too soon and only just getting to the other side an “error”? imo Taking off at a point where the jockey did not want the horse to take off is an error – even if only brushing through the top. Can’t continue to do that and not go wrong at some point, especially taking on estalished Grade 1 chasers.
On second circuit slowed in to the first ditch; Tom may well have been teaching him, but seemed too exaggerated to be absolutely what the jockey wanted. Can’t afford to do that agianst established top quality chasers either. Stood off the second ditch when Tom asked, jumping it well imo.
Thistlecrack is basically an impressive bold jumper who (at the moment) can sometimes be too brave for his own good.
Value Is EverythingThere’s been some utter tosh talked about Thistlecrack’s Cheltenham performance by people who should know better – pros who are paid to assess form and offer opinions. Sean Boyce called the Cheltenham performance ‘awful’ and suggested 8s for the World Hurdle is his preferred bet. Kevin Blake thinks the horse will never be a staying chaser jumping as he does (effectively and efficiently most of the time) and that he should be aimed at the QM.
Have read a few more pro critics on twitter. Most profess to love Thistlecrack and then begin all the buts…
The facts are these:
He jumped 18 fences at Chepstow error-free, most of them with a highly accomplished technique.
He jumped 19 fences at Cheltenham error-free, most with a highly accomplished technique.
He made an awful error at 1 fence at Cheltenham. Arguably the only thing more miraculous than his survival of it was how easily he recovered.
So, he’s jumped 37 out of 38 fences error-free, and has an engine the size of the moon. Why do I get the impression that half the racing world thinks he is ill-suited to a Gold Cup campaign?
I see you are still trying.
If you have faith in Thistlecrack I don’t see why you should give two hoots what the likes of Boyce, Blake or anyone else thinks. If they have backed something else for the Gold Cup the last horse they will want to see lining up is Thistlecrack.
As I said on the other thread I would be far more concerned about Scudamore than the horse. It is up to him to make sure the problems are not repeated. He needs to take control at the ditches. Personally, I don’t think the horse needs a massive amount of experience, one more novice chase and the Gold Cup trial at the end of January should suffice. The most important thing is to arrive at the Festival a relatively fresh horse.
If as I expect Coneygree bolts up tomorrow there will be a new Gold Cup favourite and consequently a little less attention on Thistlecrack.
I disagree there Ginger…I think (and have done for a while) that Djakadams 2nd to Coneygree was a better effort than last year…
For one he had his preferred softer ground against Coneygree and he hadn’t had a blip in his preparation like his tip up before last seasons Gold Cup…
My theory also seemed to be confirmed when Ruby Walsh was on Racing UK the other night and they were discussing the staying division…he said against Don Cossack he just didn’t seem to pick up like he did the year before and also mentioned his prep run fall…
I still think there’s a case that the three who looked progressive when chasing Coneygree home didn’t quite recover from what was a brutal race…RTR and Holywell certainly haven’t kicked on from there…it’s why I also think the time Coneygree has had off will be a bit of a blessing in disguise…
All that said…if I was backing one each way at this point it would be Djakadam!
Coneygree could yet improve and Don Cossack may never match the form he was capale of the last two seasons, Zammer. But judged on their two Gold Cups: Djackadam wouldn’t have appeared to pick up as well against Don Cossack because Don was quite a lot better horse than Coneygree.
Yes, Djackadam fell on his previous start but jumped well in the Gold Cup, so what happened on his previous start has no bearing on form of the latter.
Trainers and jockeys always tend to believe horses are suited by a surface when they win on that surface. imo Djakadam has no preferred going from Heavy to Good.
On “form” it’s possible the 2015 Gold Cup 2nd and 3rd were a little below form on next start at Punchestown, chasing home Don Cossack. However, what happened in the 2016 Gold Cup strongly suggests Djakadam wasn’t much below form that day.
I don’t take much notice of what jockeys say when form suggests otherwise.
Value Is EverythingAye, Stilvi. It just annoys me that folk are getting paid to interpret something pretty basic and cannot seem to do so.
Ginger, error-free, for me, means his progress was not impeded. He stood off a number of times – did so twice at Chepstow, but only once was progress impeded. His engine and stunning athleticism allows those huge jumps, as it did often with Sprinter Sacre.
On the ATR podcast I listened to, after Boyce tore the horse to pieces I could almost see him blush when Rory Delargy said he’d been standing close to Mick O’Toole on Saturday who ‘was raving about the horse’ and reportedly said he thought him better than Pendil in terms of his scope at a fence.
I totally agree with you that Thistlecrack has as much potential as any horse to become as fluent (and as good) as Sprinter Sacre. Certainly has the boldness and scope. However, in SS’s early chasing days he never looked likely to make a race ending mistake. I don’t yet have that with Thistlecrack, do you Joe? I’ve said before, This’ reminds me more of Desert Orchid’s early chases, usually jumping boldly and well but with the chance of making the occasional bad mistake through exhuberance.
Value Is EverythingMark, my suspicion is that something went wrong at that fence. I just can’t see it well enough on the web replay to be able to say with any degree of confidence.
The horse appears to approach it without his ears pricked (I just cannot be dead sure on that). At every other fence he’s paying full attention and is pricking his ears on approach. Whether he was distracted by something or not, I don’t know, but there is misjudging and misjudging…he seemed to me to come up so far out of his ground that it’s too incredible to take in.
I’ve tried to freeze frame it as best I can but the wings cover up far too much. But I believe he comes up at the same point the leader is trying to rise. He looks to me to be at least two lengths behind the leader when he takes off. Now, if that’s the case, how did he even get to the fence never mind most of the way over it?
If he has been distracted on the approach then it was down to Scu to just give him a tap on the shoulder to wake him up. There’s a chance the horse has been daydreaming and was then brought back ‘live’ as the leader started to come up. Such a distraction can happen to any animal – famously Arkle in front of the stands in a Gold Cup.
I just think the horse’s technique is superb. He can go short or long or medium. I don’t think being upsides bothered him, nor did being in second. There’s nothing in his racing demeanour on Saturday that suggests it troubled him at all. Having said that, Scu should make the running on him. The horse showed at Chepstow that it doesn’t bother him and also on the 2nd circuit at Cheltenham. Let him go a decent pace and keep him concentrating and I can see nothing that will beat him in any race.
I agree Joe.
A lot of negatives about his inexperience but that could also be a bonus
He could of run the next day after his first two races, he didn’t turn a hair, even at the ditch he nearly came to a standstill yet was back into stride before you could blink. The Gold Cup is a grueling race and can take it’s toll, I’d rather take a horse that has not run in it before, yes he’ll be up against battle hardened horses but some of those if they make it there will be carrying war scars which Thistlecrack will expose. Scu doesn’t ask him to quickened he just loosens the reigns ever so slightly and the horse takes off.I can see nothing that will beat him in any race.
Douvan would be interesting, if Mullins decided to put the cat amongst Thistlecrack and the pigeons
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I can remember saying on here a year ago today, after his Betfair Chase victory that Cue Card would win that seasons King George and Gold cup at Cheltenham having taken the 25/1 for him to do the treble…A year on and I wouldnt swap him for anything…Those that think the ground might be too fast for him come March obviously dont know he prefers better ground but his class gets him through conditions like today..As for connections of ‘Coneygree’ saying he wont beat their horse again…
As for connections of ‘Coneygree’ saying he wont beat their horse again…
Can you post the quote?
You would expect them to say something like that though, wouldn’t you? I think it constitutes fighting talk, and sounds a bit better than we will never beat Cue Card.
Cue Card seemed to outclass him today. He made Coneygree look very one dimensional but March will be a different test and we can only guess as to how close the runner up was to his peak. He appeared to finish pretty tired and it wouldn’t surprise me if he has break and then one run before the Gold Cup.
As for connections of ‘Coneygree’ saying he wont beat their horse again…
Can you post the quote?
Thats strange Stilvi,I have just been looking for the quote I read from earlier and I cant find it anywhere…I have had 2 glasses of Chablis but I swear I read it somewhere….Either way ‘Coneygree’ wont beat Cue Card this season.
Stilvi,
Cheers Joe,thought Stilvi was suggesting I was making it up….Would I?
Am still glad I backed him @ 11/2, but have since laid a bit back. So agree with Lydia, to a certain extent Thistlecrack is now poor value.
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