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Great results GT. Your thread is doing really well. What is the minimum price you would take for Giuseppe Garibaki?
GT, surely this isn’t the way that your thought process should be thinking. Someone with a proven track record and healthy ROI like yourself will miss out on a price and a potential winner all the time. Blank it out. Forget about it and move on to the next potential winner. Well earned profits are easily frittered away on selections that we chase down the price even if we do realise it is bad/poor value.
Also, you do surprise me in placing football bets as there is rarely very much value to be had in footy betting as the best bookie markets prices are often approx 103-105% at best dependent on the number of outcomes in the market. These fun bets can take a good chunk out of your yearly profits.
As always, best of luckPS You were right to factor in a Russian penalty
GT, surely this isn’t the way that your thought process should be thinking. Someone with a proven track record and healthy ROI like yourself will miss out on a price and a potential winner all the time. Blank it out. Forget about it and move on to the next potential winner. Well earned profits are easily frittered away on selections that we chase down the price even if we do realise it is bad/poor value.
Also, you do surprise me in placing football bets as there is rarely very much value to be had in footy betting as the best bookie markets prices are often approx 103-105% at best dependent on the number of outcomes in the market. These fun bets can take a good chunk out of your yearly profits.
As always, best of luckPS You were right to factor in a Russian penalty
Yes, of course I miss out on prices/potential winners all the time, Mtoto. Usually don’t mind at all and can take it on the chin. However, missing out because I wasn’t there when the prices were available or that I’d decided not to bet – is fair enough. This was a different situation. I saw what I considered a bloody good price of 4.1 last night. My idea of its fair price was 32% 85/40, add a margin for error and my minimum price to back it (two prices up) 5/2… And yet being too greedy I asked for a slightly bigger price on betfair. Only a small amount of that 4.2 was taken overnight… And too lazy to get up this morning missed all the 3/1, 11/4 and 5/2. Normally that would stop me betting any more, but – I was miffed… And – as i said – my minimum price was 5/2. What was the combined price I ended up taking for Giuseppe Garibaldi? ie Adding the smaller bet of 4.2 to the bigger bet of 9/4 meant (considering overall stakes and possible return) the overall combined price taken was just over my minimum price of 5/2.
Missing out on a winner through pure greed and laziness would’ve been hard to take. Betting like that happens no more than a couple of times a year and if it helps psycologically well worth doing imo.
I wouldn’t call my football investments, “fun bets”, although they are nowhere near to the same scale as Racing. Around 10 football/other bets in the last 4 years that adds up to the same stake as about 3 Racing bets – and there’s thousands of them. So isn’t going to eat in to profits. Sometimes prices just leap out at you and got to act – in any market. ie Taken individually: Do believe I was right backing England, Spain and Belgium to win the World Cup. Less so Tunisia to beat Panama (even though that won). Thanks for pointing it out though, Mtoto. You’re right in that correct score betting was plain wrong (although one of the two markets was a saver winner) – regretted it immediately and won’t happen again.
Yes, very definitely horses (and foxes
) are where my edge lies. Value Is Everything11/1 winner!
46 points staked Sunday, 349.6 returned for a profit of +303.6Total Stakes: 3672
Total Return: 5498.54
Total Profit: +1826.54 points
49.74% Profit On StakesAnte-post bets yet to be included in totals:
St Leger: 76 points @ 6/1 Dee Ex Bee
2000 Guineas: 30 points @ 20/1 CalyxValue Is EverythingCheers GT. Thanks for your response. Discipline is key to punting success. I’ve seen many good judges/punters/gamblers get into financial troubles over the years due to their lack of discipline.
Personally I never, ever take a price on Betfair because 98 times out of 100 you will get a slightly better price by requesting odds a couple of ticks higher. Yes, occasionally you will miss out but a much better strategy in the long term I think. Actually, I reckon that this method probably pays for a good chunk of your commission over the course of the year which can be quite a substantial bill in itselfAny further thoughts about Dee Ex Bee’s St Leger chances?
Ignore Saturday, Mtoto. Drawn 1 and slow from the stalls. SDS lit him up in order to reach a prominent position but then possibly going a little freely reigned back. Played in to Coolmore’s hands, turning it in to a test of spped at 12f Dee Ex Bee had no chance. Ground also not only puts emphasis on speed, but Dee Ex Bee is yet to prove he acts on a firm surface. Much less likely to be this warm in September.
Team O’Brien will have a team of classy stayers, but thankfully Forever Together doesn’t look like taking part. Latrobe ran as if he’ll stay further, but breeding? Camelot won a Guineas, Derby and second (should’ve won) a Leger. It’s early days to judge Camelot’s stamina index; certainly gets 12f horses well. Latrobe’s dam hwoever was a sprinter. If Godolphin/Godolphin Junior get a good Leger type DXB’s target may change. Mildenburger or Old Persian the most likely, but think it’s worth taking a chance he’ll turn up as it’s the obvious target.
Always got to factor in Johnston’s horses inconsistency, but tbh that’s mainly because they often run without ideal conditions. If getting some give in the ground this will be his perfect conditions. Epsom Derby form already good enough to win an average St Leger and everything about Dee Ex Bee shouts stamina! Improvement likely. Might like to wait a couple of days just in case an injury comes to light, but 10/1 is massive – doubt it’ll last long! Should be favourite!
Value Is EverythingAgree Ginge, your analysis is quite similar to Kevin Blakes of Latrobe (that’s a compliment ofc)..
English raiders feared team tactics!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!English raiders feared team tactics!
Isn’t that the point though, Jack.
I’d have thought it fairly obvious Team O’Brien were going to want a slowish pace because otherwise it would’ve tested (their best chance) Saxon Warrior’s stamina. Why did the Brits (who were all capable of racing prominently/leading) play in to Team O’Brien’s hands by not forcing the issue?
Value Is EverythingEclipse:
19 points each way @ 20/1 (B365) Hawkbill (min 14/1)
26 points @ 11/1 (PP) Forest Ranger (min 10/1)
saver:
40 points @ 13/8 (B365) Roaring Lion (min 13/8)Value Is EverythingI have an average of 2.87/1 Roaring Lion taken ante-post Roaring Lion and a small amount of Masar laid @ 1.24/1, couldn’t put either of the two bets up at the time because of poor liquidity. So my own bets are for Hawkbill and Roaring Lion as main bets with Forest Ranger the saver. However, my advice is to do the last two named the other way around given current prices.
Value Is EverythingWith advised saver Roaring Lion and main bet Nearly Caught winning…
Saturday Stakes: 160
Saturday Return: 287
Saturday Profit: +127 pointsTotal Stakes: 3832
Total Return: 5785.54
Total Profit: +1953.54 points
Profit On Stakes 50.98%Ante-post bets yet to be included in totals:
St Leger: 76 points @ 6/1 Dee Ex Bee
2000 Guineas: 30 points @ 20/1 CalyxValue Is Everything
) are where my edge lies. 
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