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I thought you might, Mtoto.
Here’s another one for you:St Leger:
76 points @ 6/1 (B365) Dee Ex Bee (min 9/2)Has already put up a performance good enough to win an average St Leger and – given the way he races – has more improvement in him once stamina is fully tested.
Value Is EverythingStakes since last update: 569
Return since last update: 922
Profit since last update:+353 pointsTotal Stakes: 1309
Total Return: 1980.2
Total Profit: +671.2 points
51.3% ROIAnte-post bets yet to be included in totals:
St Leger: 76 points @ 6/1 Dee Ex BeeValue Is EverythingHad a weekend away from racing, and just seen that massively impressive performance by Calyx. Wow! Personally, I think bookmakers have under-estimated just because it’s so early in the season. ie Because a lot more top two year olds will be appearing in following months doesn’t matter. We don’t need to know what he’s going to be up against. Any horse’s chance can be measured by considering:
a) How good was the performance?
b) How much potential/improvement and therefore what rating he’ll be capable of come the first Classic.
c) How (b) compares to the Average Guineas winner of the last ten years (excluding Frankel).
d) Will temperament enable him to be effective at the distance he’s bred for?I have seldom seen a performance of this standard by a debutant this early in the season and have little doubt he’s a top class horse in the making.
So given how good the performance was, Calyx only needs to relax and make normal improvement in order to be a 2000 Guineas horse. Conformation, stride and who the trainer is… all suggest this horse will make more than normal improvement. Question is at what distance?
As others have mentioned, on the face of it bred to be a top class miler. By Champion Miler Kingman out of Marcel Boussac second Helleborine. However, looking further back it isn’t as straightforward. Kingman’s asset was speed/acceleration and showed top class sprinting fractions in winning four Group 1 mile races; performances which proved he could’ve been Champion Sprinter had connections chosen that route. Also Helleborine failed to train on (hope Calyx trains on) and her full sister African Rose best at 6f. Latter too exhuberent to stay as far as her pedigree suggested; unusually came back in trip to win the Sprint Cup after starting out at a mile.
Calyx didn’t settle perfectly, raced with head a little high and showed blistering speed, so wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a sprinter too. However, most of this family get further than sprint distances and this was his debut; so at this stage it’s probably greeness – should relax with age/racing.
Therefore, is Calyx likely to win the Guineas? Honestly, No.
Has Calyx got a better than 5% (fair 20/1) chance of winning the Guineas? Ohhhh Yyyyess, wouldn’t be offering any more than half that if I were a bookie.2019 2000 Guineas
30 points @ 20/1 (B365) Calyx (min 14/1)Value Is EverythingDiamond Jubilee:
81 points @ 3/1 (PP) Harry Angel (min 5/2)Plenty will be against Harry Angel on his Ascot form. However, imo it’s not about the track, it’s about pace of the race and team tactics (what I call “non-triers”). Jockey on Intelligence Cross going too fast for his own good… but strangely enough improving Team Coolmore’s chances. Had they not done it last year in both Commonwealth Cup and Champion Sprint Harry Angel would have definitely won the former and possibly the latter too. In both races HA too free after being taken on up front; going too fast too soon. Winners Caravaggio and Librisa Breeze coming from off the pace. But – at his best – Harry Angel is imo quite a bit better than any of these, so @ 3/1 he’s worth taking the chance. Hopefully the “pacemaker” will be drawn away from Harry.
Value Is EverythingI backed Stradivarius @ 7/1 ante-post for the Gold Cup before this thread started.
With good-firm ground increasingly likely, which means imo Vazirabad will probably stay at home and Torcedor’s chance decreases too.
I’ve heard some say Order Of St George isn’t as good on it either. I don’t agree with that, but even so may well cause a shortening of Stradivarius. So if you aren’t on already I suggest:Gold Cup:
76 points @ 5/2 (L) Stradivarius (min 85/40)
23 points @ 16/1 (PP) Desert Skyline (min 14/1)Value Is EverythingSt James’s Palace Stakes:
42 points @ 8/1 (Boyle) Romanised (min 13/2)Value Is EverythingCoventry Stakes:
80 points @ 11/4 (B365) Calyx (min 9/4)
saver:
32 points @ 5/2 (sportsbook) Sergei Prokofiev (min 9/4)imo This race is 33.33% Calyx, 33.33% Serfei Prokofiev and 33.33% the field.
Value Is EverythingSt James’s Palace Stakes:
42 points @ 8/1 (Boyle) Romanised (min 13/2)
28 points @ 10/1 (Sporting) Wooton (min 17/2)Value Is EverythingCoronation Stakes:
28 points @ 20/1 (B365) Threading (min 14/1)
68 points @ 4/1 (PP) Clemmie (min 100/30)
54 points @ 4.6/1 (betfair) Alpha Centauri (min 7/2)Value Is EverythingThought I’d put this race up before, if I have then ignore these:
Queen Anne
44 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Recoletos (min 6/1)
42 points @ 9/1 (PP) Lightning Spear (min 7/1)
saver:
22 points @ 9/2 (PP) Benbatl (min 9/2)Value Is EverythingSt James’s Palace Stakes:
42 points @ 8/1 (Boyle) Romanised (min 13/2)
28 points @ 10/1 (Sporting) Wooton (min 17/2)
saver:
25 points @ 3/1 (WH) Without Parole (min 3/1)Value Is Everything
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