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Back to the flat:
1:50 Meydan
30 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Dal Haraild (min 8/1)
22 points @ 2.3/1 (betfair) Vazirabad (min 2/1)
18 points @ 3/1 (betfair) Rare Rhythem (min 3/1)Value Is Everything5:10 Meydan
75 points @ 11/4 (B365) Cloth Of Stars (min 9/4)
30 points @ 11/1 (betfair) Hawkbill (min 9/1)
21 points @ 5/1 (generally) Poets Word (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingThat’ll do for starters.
Saver Vazirabad winning and then my mate Hawkbill as a main bet.
Got a bit worried beforehand when playing up in the stalls.
Buick got him well relaxed and a great ride, getting a soft lead (as expected).
Value Is EverythingGreat start Mark!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
2000 Guineas:
55 points @ 7/2 (B365) Masar (min 100/30)
45 points @ 5.8/1 (betfair) Elarqam (min 11/2)
savers:
29 points @ 4/1 (B365) Saxon Warrior (min 4/1)
16 points @ 4/1 (B365) Gustav Klimt (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingOpen Guineas as far as no stand out candidate is concerned, but to me it’s hard to see past the first four in the market (or four and a half). I was all set to oppose Masar – who made all in the Craven – but there isn’t as much pace in the race as you might think with a 14 runner field. Murillo could of course be a pacemaker, but he can be left alone; Masar should at least be able to get a prominint posi’. Appleby in great form this season which is a massive plus for his chances this year. Ditto Elarqam/Johnston – Johnston has had other Guineas candidates before, but possibly importantly the trainer is in better form now than other years. Breeding – Frankel/Attraction – and an extremely promising two year old season, is the one potential big improver. Saxon Warrior may well be best at middle distances and will need a strong pace here, but if there’s a real top top notcher in amongst the three year olds… this is it. I wasn’t a great fan of Gustav Klimt as a juvenile, imo over-rated at that stage; but started to fulfil breeding/potential on reappearance – at a time O’Brien’s aren’t usually spot on that early in the season. Greenham form, James Garfield/Raid doesn’t look good enough. My ante-post bet is (unfortunately) Expert Eye, so impressive at Goodwood. Off course a long time before disappointing in the Dewhurst, should’ve won the Greenham – weak in the market… and didn’t. May be he needed the run – is a Stoutey after all? May be he won’t stay – entered in Commonwealth Cup? May be temperament is getting the better of him? Too many question marks at the moment. Prelims/early stages will tell a lot. Expert Eye a possible bet in running opportunity (back or lay). Will be keeping an eye on Roaring Lion for the Derby picture, but disappointed in the Craven despite being well-backed. If something was stopping him from showing his form there it’ll show in the market pre-race (nothing yet).
Value Is Everything2:20 Newmarket
44 points @ 6/1 Mabbs Cross (min 11/2)
36 points @ 10/1 Encore D’Or (min 8/1)Value Is EverythingI don’t think the “6/1” was available once I’d typed and the post taking time to load, so will call Mabbs Cross 5/1.
Value Is EverythingWith Mabbs Cross winning the Palace House and saver Saxon Warrior in the Guineas:
Today’s Stakes 225
Today’s Return 409
Today’s Profit +184 pointsTotal Stakes 421
Total Return 841.6
Total Profit +420.6 pointsValue Is Everything1000 Guineas:
28 points @ 10/1 (B365) Liquid Amber (min 17/2)
32 points @ 7/1 (Sky) Soliloquy (min 13/2)Value Is Everything1000 Guineas:
28 points @ 10/1 (B365) Liquid Amber (min 17/2)
32 points @ 7/1 (Sky) Soliloquy (min 13/2)
26 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Wild Illusion (min 11/1)
saver:
36 points @ 2.4/1 (betfair) Happily (min 9/4)Value Is EverythingShame my ante-post bet Clemmie didn’t make it here (I was very confident about her) but should be a good race anyway.
Value Is Everything1000 Guineas:
28 points @ 10/1 (B365) Liquid Amber (min 17/2)
32 points @ 7/1 (Sky) Soliloquy (min 13/2)
26 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Wild Illusion (min 11/1)
saver:
36 points @ 2.4/1 (betfair) Happily (min 9/4)Want to make Happily a main bet at current prices and no confidence in the market for Liquid Amber so:
Another:
46 points @ 2.8/1 (betfair) Happily (min 9/4)
LAY:
21 points @ 12.5/1 (betfair) Liquid Amber (min 13/1)Value Is Everything4:45 Newmarket
114 points @ 0.9/1 (betfair) Lah Ti Dar (min 4/5)Oaks
30 points @ 9/1 (B365) Lah Ti Dar (min 8/1)Value Is EverythingWith no luck in the Guineas or Dahlia. tbh Elegant Rose was a silly bet, big doubt whether she’d act on the drying ground. At least Lah Ti Dar got something back in the Pretty Polly and looks a fair ante-post bet.
Today’s Stakes 319
Today’s Return 216.6
Today’s Deficit -102.4Total Stakes 740
Total Return 1058.2
Total Profit +318.2 pointsAnte-post bets to be included:
Oaks: 30 points @ 9/1 Lah Ti DarValue Is Everything
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