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RSA Chase:
74 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Topofthegame (min 100/30)
56 points @ 7/2 (betfair) Santini (min 100/30)
saver:
10 points @ 13.5/1 (betfair) On The Blind Side (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingBallymore Novices:
31 points @ 10/1 (betfair) City Island (min 17/2)
37 points @ 8.2/1 (betfair) Brewinupastorm (min 7/1)
saver:
20 points @ 3.8/1 (betfair) Champ (min 7/2)Value Is EverythingQueen Mum Champion Chase
40 points each way @ 9/2 (B365 1/4 odds) Min (min 4/1)Betting without Altior:
36 points @ 14/1 (L) Gods Own (min 11/1)Outright:
10 points @ 54/1 (betfair) Gods Own (min 25/1)Value Is EverythingRyanair Chase:
79 points @ 4.7/1 (betfair) Footpad (min 7/2)
52 points @ 4.8/1 (betfair) Road To Respect (min 9/2)
saver:
18 points @ 15/2 (PP) Frodon (min 7/1)Value Is EverythingStayers Hurdle
31 points @ 15/1 (betfair) Bacardys (min 12/1)
9 points @ 50/1 (WH) Sam Spinner (min 40/1)
76 points @ 2/1 (betfair) Paisley Park (min 15/8)Value Is EverythingJLT
47 points @ 6.8/1 (betfair) Reel Steel (min 11/2)
26 points @ 17/1 (betfair) Pravalaguna (min 14/1)Value Is EverythingJLT
47 points @ 6.8/1 (betfair) Reel Steel (min 11/2)
26 points @ 17/1 (betfair) Pravalaguna (min 14/1)
55 points @ 3.4/1 (betfair) Defi De Seiul (min 100/30)Value Is EverythingStayers Hurdle
31 points @ 15/1 (betfair) Bacardys (min 12/1)
9 points @ 50/1 (WH) Sam Spinner (min 40/1)
76 points @ 2/1 (betfair) Paisley Park (min 15/8)
12 points @ 18/1 (betfair) Top Notch (min 16/1)Value Is EverythingWhen becomeing obvious he’s going here I backed Footpad. If showing his form could win this fairly easily and how he travelled well for a long way last time is encouraging. The 4.7/1 at that time very worth taking a chance with, because if showing all the old sparkle at home he’d be 5/2 or shorter… and indeed shortened up quite a bit afterwards. However, since then has drifted. Question needs to be asked now: If connections believed Footpad anything like back to his old self, would he be allowed to start 5/1. I don’t think so. So although I thought 4.7/1 was at the time value, wouldn’t take 5/1 right now. Strangely enough for a value punter, had he been 3/1 this afternoon I may well have gone in again. Hopefully he’ll shorten up.
Good news is the other one I’ve backed as a main bet that’s shortened is Road To Respect. Bad news is I’d had an ante-post bet on him for the Gold Cup! So behind in that respect to.
If the ground is truly soft then it may well be the correct decision. Seemed outstayed in last year’s Gold Cup, although could also be at his very best on good or good-soft – which is a slight worry. But everything else is for him. Ran well for a long way in the Gold Cup and raced mid-div to win at the Festival two years ago… And (importantly imo) doesn’t need to be up there from the start. All opposition at the top of the market run their best races from the front or at least up with it. So far – Monalee, Frodon and Un De Sceaux are all best making or disputing it, and then there’s other front/prominent runners Sub Lieutenant and Charbel, even Balko Des Flos seems best not too far behind.Footpad races at or near the pace and had plenty of room at his fences (fair way behind the front two for a long way in the Arkle, but out on his own in doing so). 12 is not a big field but it is for him, 7 being the biggest faced over fences. Expect Ruby to keep Footpad wide.
Un De Sceaux has won this before, but is likely to have more competition for the lead here and in those circumstances can pull his chance away. No Ruby to anchor him either. No real evidence of age catching up with the 11 year old, but hasn’t run this year.
Monalee jumps exceptionally well when making the running, but will he be as good taken on by an equaly good leaper? Seems to be improving and needs to to beat some of these.
Frodon loves Cheltenham and doesn’t need to lead. Handicap form under big weights give him a good chance if Grodon is below form. If there weren’t as many front runners I’d be having a big bet on Frodon. Just a saver because think they might set it up for the closer Road To Respect.
Some of the others aren’t that much behind on form, but equally don’t have much scope to make that improvement necessary. Might place, but unless they go absolutely silly up front (bringing in Coney Island and Terrefort) can’t see an upset.
Value Is EverythingAm trying to keep it up, Mtoto.
Another two main bet wins, although both fairly short prices; plus a saver from three races.
Value Is Everything2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup
34 points @ 16/1 (L) Road To Respect (min 12/1)
57 points @ 11/2 (PP) Native River (min 5/1)
47 points @ 13/1 (betfair) Bellshill (min 17/2)
saver:
15 points @ 11.5/1 (betfair) Kemboy (min 10/1)Value Is Everything
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