Ginger's jumpers

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  • #1416233
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    Melling Chase:
    Waiting Patiently may be the best horse in the race, but a long time since he’s run left-handed and might be best the other way around. Is yet to prove he’s fully come back from injury and will need to be right at his best to beat Politologue and Min. Last named ran an uncharachteristic poor race for no apparant reason in the Queen Mum… So bad that on the face of it iss difficult to see back to top form after just a few weeks rest. Plus, am not certain he truly stays a strongly run 2m4f. That said, a positive market move is a good sign. However, surely Politologue is by far the most likely horse of the three to show his form? Absolutely loves this place this time of year. Victories in the novice in 2017 and this race in similar ground in 2018. Gave an albeit below form Altior a race at Cheltenham. I was on Gods Own at a massive price there and 33/1 almost tempted me in again. Wouldn’t have been far behind Politologue had he not gone lame and pulled up going to the last. Has won this race before, but 11 years old and even at peak would be relying on the main three not performing. Top Notch showed himself as good as ever penultimate start, but disappointed over hurdles in the World Hurdle. Back to fences could get back to form for a trainer in form with an excellent record over many years at this meeting. I was against Hells Kitchen before the front running rank outsider came out this morning. HK was held up out the back at Cheltenham because tends to pull hard if taken on up front. Ran ok, but is possible being allowed a lead suits him ideally. At the prices want to be against Waiting Patiently and Min.

    I’ve backed Politologue 2.76/1, Top Notch 11.35/1 with a saver on Hells Kitchen 14.5/1.
    However, if I’d done it all this morning would change Hells Kitchen with Top Notch.

    value is everything
    #1416243
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    Mildmay:
    This looks between two. Chris’s Dream and Mr Whipped have scope to progress, but both need a lot of improvement to beat a top form Topofthegame. Mr Whipped has also had an interupted preparation and lacks experience. Can’t see Drovers Lane or Crucial Role being good enough to get involved. So Chris’s Dream is the obvious one for third, but only 7 runners so not really an each way bet. I backed Topofthegame at Cheltenham and won a top quality RSA. Wouldn’t be surprised if eventually makes in to a Gold Cup horse. However, at the moment imo the form difference between him and Lostintranslation isn’t as big as what betting suggests… And a chance the Tizzard horse can improve at this trip – staying on in races over shorter. Lot will depend on pace of the race. Only time Lostintranslation has not jumped exceptionally well is when not able to lead, which is very similar to Top Ville Ben. Latter needs to improve, but has scope to run better than odds suggest. However, connections tried to take a lead at Cheltenham and fell. Back to front running has since won a normal novice very easily.

    7/2 Lostintranslation imo worth taking a chance on, but if Top Ville Ben takes him on then Topofthegame should win pretty easily – hence the saver.

    value is everything
    #1416367
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    After three good winners from four races yesterday and a good profit; just one from three today – giving some back.

    value is everything
    #1416368
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    Mistake backing Lake View Lad yesterday thought it was going to be at least good-soft. Time of todays Topham just 10 seconds slower than standard, already good-soft. Depending on times tomorrow I might come back with a lay bet for LVL tomorrow (hope they back the grey on course).

    Grand National:
    15 points @ 40/1 (L) Thomas Patrick (min 25/1)
    10 points @ 45/1 (betfair) Elegant Escape (min 33/1)
    30 points @ 5/1 (betfair) Tiger Roll (min 9/2)
    27 points @ 39/1 (betfair) Rameses De Theillee (min 22/1)
    17 points @ 25/1 (L) Jury Duty (min 22/1)
    23 points @ 19/1 (betfair) Lake View Lad (min 15/1)
    24 points @ 16.5/1 (betfair) Vintage Clouds (min 14/1)

    22 points @ 22/1 (betfair) Joe Farrell (min 18/1)
    Another:
    15 points @ 18/1 (betfair) Jury Duty (min 13/1) (32 in all)
    7 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Ramses De Teillee (min 15/1) (34 in all)

    value is everything
    #1416398
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    My Grand National 100% Book for between Good and Good-Soft going:

    Tiger Roll 18% 9/2, Rathvinden 10% 9/1, Jury Duty 8% 12/1, Ramses De Teilleee 7.125% 13/1, Vintage Clouds 6.75% 14/1, Joe Farrell 6.25%; 15/1, Rock The Kasbah 5.75% 16/1, Anibale Fly 5.25% 18/1, Lake View Lad 5.25% 18/1, Pleasant Company 3.25% 28/1, Up For Review 3.25% 28/1, Step Back 2.75% 33/1, Walk In The Mill 2.75% 33/1, Ballyoptic 2% 50/1, One For Arthur 2% 50/1, General Principle 2% 50/1, Go Conquer 1.5% 66/1, Minella Rocco 1.5% 66/1, Noble Endevour 1.5% 66/1, Dounikos 1% 100/1, Tea For Two 0.5% 200/1, Ultragold 0.3% 300/1, Valseur Lido 0.3% 300/1, Mala Beach 0.3% 300/1, Singlefarmpayment 0.3% 300/1, Valtor 0.25% 400/1, Vieux Lion Rouge 0.25% 400/1, A Toi Phil 0.2% 500/1, Captain Redbeard 0.2% 500/1, Folsom Blue 0.2% 500/1, Magic Of Light 0.2% 500/1, Regal Encore 0.2% 500/1, Warriors Tale 0.2% 500/1, Bless The Wings 0.125% 800/1, Don Poli 0.125% 800/1, Monbeg Notorious 0.125% 800/1, Livelovelaugh 0.125% 800/1, Blow By Blow 0.05% 1000/1, Just A Par 0.05% 2000/1, Outlander 0.05% 2000/1.

    I still make Ramses De Teillee the best value, currently available @ 27/1. I have him as a fair 13/1 shot. Next best Jury Duty currently available @ 18/1 and I have him as a fair 12/1 shot.

    I make half the field as individually having less than 1% chance (20 horses having a combined chance of only just over 4%). With the front 5 in the betting having a combined 50% chance! Tiger Roll has imo the same chance as Rathvinden and Jury Duty combined.

    value is everything
    #1416425
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    3:00 Aintree
    44 points @ 10/1 (B365) Destrier (min 15/2)

    value is everything
    #1416429
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    3:00 Aintree
    44 points @ 10/1 (B365) Destrier (min 15/2)

    56 points @ 3/1 (B365) Us And Them (min 3/1)

    value is everything
    #1416430
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    That’s it for tonight.
    Might have a look at the 3m hurdle tomorrow.

    value is everything
    #1416477
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    Going to do place bets (first 4) on the Grand National which I’ll keep seperate to the win bets.

    Grand National:
    100 points @ 5/2 (betfair) Tiger Roll (min 11/8)

    value is everything
    #1416484
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    He’s 3/1 now! Best value bet for ages! :wacko:

    value is everything
    #1416498
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    Grand National Place Market:
    100 points @ 5/2 (betfair) Tiger Roll (min 11/8)
    saver:
    25 points @ 4.1/1 (betfair) Rathvinden (min 3/1)

    value is everything
    #1416502
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    Grand National Place Market:
    100 points @ 5/2 (betfair) Tiger Roll (min 11/8)
    saver:
    25 points @ 4.1/1 (betfair) Rathvinden (min 3/1)

    25 points @ 7.4/1 (betfair) Ramses De Teillee (min 5/1)

    value is everything
    #1416516
    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 315

    Hi GT. How do you explain this anomaly in the Grand National place market? Happens every year on 3 or 4 of the favourites. Tiger Roll is an amazing price as you say. Had 4.20 matched!!!

    #1416519
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    Grand National Place Market:
    100 points @ 5/2 (betfair) Tiger Roll (min 11/8)
    saver:
    25 points @ 4.1/1 (betfair) Rathvinden (min 3/1)
    25 points @ 7.4/1 (betfair) Ramses De Teillee (min 5/1)

    20 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) Jury Duty (min 9/2)

    value is everything
    #1416523
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    Yes, I’ve taken some more too at up to 4.2 Mtoto.
    Is there a bookmaker offering free place bets with any win bet? Believe there has been other years.
    Might be punters taking that free bet and laying some back for a win win situation… And to do so, the market so strong they have to lay over the odds.

    value is everything
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