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Well, On The Blind Side was the form pick and it now looks as if it’ll be him vs the Irish in the 2m5f Festival novice. I wasn’t worried re the tongue tie for Red River, GT, figuring it might be an extra advantage where one hadn’t seemed to be needed. Perhaps they detected a very slight potential problem. I’m more worried after the race. I think he was beaten on merit but now there’s a nagging doubt that he could be a horse somewhat limited in his career by wind issues whereas previously he could have been anything. At least his bubble was not completely burst like White Moon’s.
Totally agree about RRR and OTBS, latter travelled far differently today than at Cheltenham. Just glad I didn’t take a price for the 3 miler! White Moon beaten too far out to be his running I thought, unfortunately something wrong there.
Value Is Everything2:05 Aintree:
60 points @ 4/1 (B365) Alpha Des Obeaux (min 7/2)saver:
32 points @ 15/8 (888) Definitely Red (min 7/4)The other two in this race are doubtful stayers.
Value Is Everything3:10 Aintree:
30 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Arctic Gold (min 10/1)45 points @ 7/2 (Sky) Gas Line Boy (min 7/2)
Value Is Everything3:10 Aintree:
30 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Arctic Gold (min 10/1)45 points @ 7/2 (Sky) Gas Line Boy (min 7/2)
21 points @ 16/1 (PP) Imjoeking (min 15/1)
Value Is Everything3:10 Aintree:
30 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Arctic Gold (min 10/1)45 points @ 7/2 (Sky) Gas Line Boy (min 7/2)
21 points @ 16/1 (PP) Imjoeking (min 15/1)
37 points @ 13/2 (B365) Mercian Prince (min 13/2)
Value Is EverythingHenry VIII 1:45 Sandown tomorrow:
38 points each way @ 7/1 (B365) North Hill Harvey (min 11/2)Partial saver:
28 points @ 2/1 (B365) Brain Power (min 15/8)Value Is EverythingArkle (Ante-post):
31 points @ 16/1 (B365) North Hill Harvey (min 12/1)35 points @ 10/1 (C) Sceau Royal (min 7/1)
Value Is Everything2:30 Huntingdon (tomorrow)
39 points each way @ 12/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 7/1)Value Is EverythingHenry VIII
Stake 104
Return 104.5
+0.5As the race went North Hill Harvey possibly a bit lucky to place 2nd, with Brain Power departing late. Although imo my two took each other on too early and are better than distances suggest. That said, probably would not have beaten the winner anyway, excellent time and Sceau Royal definitely a top novice
Beecher
Stakes 181
Return 238.5
+57.5
Got a bit carried away with stakes in this. Should’ve kept to the “main” bets when so many are value. Handicap snip Blaklion won. Also had the second, third and fourth. Good job didn’t back Federici each way – with one coming out just 15 runners! Blaklion and The Last Samuri really good Grand National trials.Many Clouds
Stakes 92
Return (BOG) 104
+12As expected, Cloudy Dream loomed up and failed to stay, along with Fallen Angel. Trouble is Alpha Des Obeaux ran poorly so the saver won easily. Hope the handicapper doesn’t slaughter Definitely Red, imo the only horse to run his race.
Grand Sefton
Stakes 133
Return 247.5
+114.5Gas Line Boy got back what I’d lost in backing him ante-post for the Beecher, plus a bit extra. Could’ve got 8/1 for this had I immediately stuck some money on him as soon as the decs came through.
Still, 9/2 BOG isn’t so bad. As expected Imjoeking ran well for a long way, but didn’t get home, possibly one to bear in mind for the Topham if going places emphasis on speed. Ultragold loomed up but as is his style found nowt – one to bet for a place. I thought Arctic Gold did well to get as far as 4 out the way he jumped. Considering Gas Line Boy was hampered there – and did not jump as well as he can – could yet figure again another year if the handicapper does things purely by winning distances.Todays Stakes 510
Return 694.5
Days Profit +184.5 pointsThread Totals:
Stakes: 4530
Return: 5874.4
Profit: +1344.4 points
Profit on stakes: 29.68%
Strike Rate: 70.73% (incl. 13 savers) 29 wins from 41 races
Strike Rate: 39.02% (not incl. savers) 16 wins from 41 races
(4 Ante-Post races still to run: 252 points)Value Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)
Value Is Everything2:20 Cork:
45 points each way @ 5/1 (B365) Ballyoisin (min 4/1)11 points @ 16/1 (B365) Ball Darc (min 14/1)
Value Is Everything2:30 Huntingdon (tomorrow)
39 points each way @ 12/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 7/1)Top Notch should be favourite after Ascot, showing improved form. But – like Unowhatimeanharry at Newbury – needs to give weight to some bloody good horses here. Gods Own is interesting, stable in much better form now than they were on his reappearance; but although he stays 2m4f and acts on soft, I have big doubts whether he’ll stay 2m4f on soft ground. Can’t see last year’s winner Josses Hill turning the tables on his stable companion after finishing so far behind at Ascot. Got a soft spot for Sire De Grugy. But looks as though age has caught up with him, although Moore is in better form than when last seen. Ptit Zig has some good form if you go looking for it. Once ran Vautour to 1 3/4 lengths giving him 5 lbs! But seems increasingly temperamental/inconsistent these days. Reason why he was switched to hurdles was some poor jumping. If he wants it… and if he jumps might run well… But seems unlikely. Also unlikely Charbel will take part after today’s run – probably best at 2m anyway. That leaves Kylemore Lough. I backed him for the BetVictor Handicap Chase, came in to 4/1 fav. Eventually pulled up but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Travelled well for a long way… too well, as he was a bit keen. Jumped well too – until leaving his feet in the water. It could be Harry Fry’s way of training instils less stamina in his horses than Kylemore Lough’s last trainer – Kerry Lee. But could also be the freshness of a reappearance. At tomorrow’s prices worth a bet to find out.
Value Is Everything2:05 Punchestown
85 points @ 13/8 (PP) Djakadam (min 6/4)Mullins words about Djakadam‘s fitness are probably just an excuse just in case he’s beaten – not being favourite this time. imo he should be. Djakadam is usually fit for his reappearance and if anything being fresh is the time to back him. Harrington isn’t in bad form, but not in the sort of form Mullins is. Would’ve thought Sizing John was more likely to need it than Djakadam. Sub Lieutenant isn’t out of it on his best form and may get a soft lead. But why was he so bad in the JN Wine? The rest don’t look up to this.
I’d rather back Djakadam @ 13/8 than John @ 6/5. Any market move for the Sub might be worth noting.
Value Is Everything
Still, 9/2 BOG isn’t so bad. As expected Imjoeking ran well for a long way, but didn’t get home, possibly one to bear in mind for the Topham if going places emphasis on speed. Ultragold loomed up but as is his style found nowt – one to bet for a place. I thought Arctic Gold did well to get as far as 4 out the way he jumped. Considering Gas Line Boy was hampered there – and did not jump as well as he can – could yet figure again another year if the handicapper does things purely by winning distances.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.