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From my blog:
Every so often you can latch onto a horse that needs faith or foolishness on your part. Charbel is beginning to become costly for me but I’m not yet ready to give up on him. That last horse that gripped me in the same way and was becoming as expensive was the ill-fated Rajdhani Express who belatedly paid his debts and a fair bit more with a 14/1 victory in the 2015 Topham Chase.
I might have to wait even longer before Charbel manages to cross the profit line but I cannot let him go when 14/1 is available for Sunday’s Peterborough Chase. He’s also engaged in Saturday’s Tingle Creek but trainer Kim Bailey says he won’t run there unless it cuts up to ‘two or three’ runners. That’s not impossible, so bear it in mind.
If he goes to Huntingdon for the Peterborough, it will be the first time he’s tried the trip – 31 yards short of 2m 4f. We’d have known more about the likelihood of him seeing it out had he managed to get up the hill in March at Cheltenham rather than tipping up two out. His breeding offers no obvious stamina clues so there’s another element of chance there. But the race could cut up with the current favourite Top Notch also engaged at Aintree at the weekend and his stablemate Josses Hill, who won the Peterborough last year, is back to defend his crown so I think there’s a reasonable chance that Top Notch will skip this.
Even if he runs it would not put me off Charbel at 14s (William Hill). Charbel is as low as 8s elsewhere. Charbel is likely to get his ground at Huntingdon if past records are anything to go by; since 1997 the Peterborough Chase has not been run on soft ground. It was heavy in 2012, otherwise good to soft is the worst they’ve seen.
Good luck and bear in mind, as ever, the perils of antepost punting.
Interesting set of entries for this. I like Ballyoisin, who might come here in search of better ground rather than chase Un de Sceaux around in the Hilly Way if is soft there. He’s race fit and I like the horse who finished in front of him LTO.
Top Notch is unbeaten going right handed and I’ll be having him to beat Cloudy Dream, should that one lime up.
Top Notch is 7/4 but probably shorter on the day, with a few others in the top six or seven in the betting unlikely to run and rain would turn the ground against God’s Own, who has performed poorly in two of his last three races.
I know we like bigger priced horses but Top Notch looks a very likely winner here.
Yeah, can’t argue with that Mark, Top Notch looks solid for this, and enough to make me probably not have a punt.
I do agree with Grass, and Ballyoisin looks attractive for the places at 10’s, but that double engagement is enough to make me hold off.
Good stuff Joe, and Charbel is interesting. I hope they let him take the chance, and hopefully you can get off to an early winning start with him, as I imagine he will always be on your radar now.
Just taken the 14s with Hills after the trainers comments today.
I owe you one if he wins Steeplechasing.
I’ll probably throw Top Notch in a multiple if he turns up on the day. Love the horse.
But charbel at 14s is a huge price.
Charbel each way at 14/1
Just taken the 14s with Hills after the trainers comments today.
I owe you one if he wins Steeplechasing.
I’ll probably throw Top Notch in a multiple if he turns up on the day. Love the horse.
But charbel at 14s is a huge price.
Charbel each way at 14/1
Ffs.
Charbel now added to the Tingle Creek. More trainer comments worth absolutely nothing.
MoM, he did say he’d consider the TC if it cut up badly and I suppose with two big names out he’ll fancy his chances of being second.
He’s still in at Huntingdon and will be left in, I suppose, on the off chance Sandown falls to frost.
I believe betting him at 14s was the right bet, even in retrospect. You get enough of those and you’ll do okay in the long run.
Bailey now saying if Sandown goes soft, Charbel will go to Huntingdon. We shall see
There’s hope for us yet
Agree with you though that 14s was the wrong price. Just frustrating that the bookies will get away with it if the horse doesn’t run.
Top Notch should be favourite after Ascot, showing improved form. But – like Unowhatimeanharry at Newbury – needs to give weight to some bloody good horses here. Gods Own is interesting, stable in much better form now than they were on his reappearance; but although he stays 2m4f and acts on soft, I have big doubts whether he’ll stay 2m4f on soft ground. Can’t see last year’s winner Josses Hill turning the tables on his stable companion after finishing so far behind at Ascot. Got a soft spot for Sire De Grugy. But looks as though age has caught up with him, although Moore is in better form than when last seen. Ptit Zig has some good form if you go looking for it. Once ran Vautour to 1 3/4 lengths giving him 5 lbs! But seems increasingly temperamental/inconsistent these days. Reason why he was switched to hurdles was some poor jumping. If he wants it… and if he jumps might run well… But seems unlikely. Also unlikely Charbel will take part after today’s run – probably best at 2m anyway. That leaves Kylemore Lough. I backed him for the BetVictor Handicap Chase, came in to 4/1 fav. Eventually pulled up but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Travelled well for a long way… too well, as he was a bit keen. Jumped well too – until leaving his feet in the water. It could be Harry Fry’s way of training instils less stamina in his horses than Kylemore Lough’s last trainer – Kerry Lee. But could also be the freshness of a reappearance. At tomorrow’s prices worth a bet to find out. I took an unbelievable 12/1 each way this afternoon, but with a lot of these unlikely to run to form imo anthing from 7/1 upwards is worth taking.
Value Is EverythingNot so sure about Charbel’s best trip, Mark and I think Bailey will be kicking himself for being sucked into the Tingle Creek. The horse was the only one on the bridle turning in and he jumped the last two very poorly – clattered the last after nodding noticeably two out – but he ran on quite well up the hill making up two or three lengths on Ar Mad and passing him a couple of strides after the post.
I suspect 20f at Huntingdon would have been perfect for him.
Not so sure about Charbel’s best trip, Mark and I think Bailey will be kicking himself for being sucked into the Tingle Creek. The horse was the only one on the bridle turning in and he jumped the last two very poorly – clattered the last after nodding noticeably two out – but he ran on quite well up the hill making up two or three lengths on Ar Mad and passing him a couple of strides after the post.
I suspect 20f at Huntingdon would have been perfect for him.
On fast ground Charbel might be effective at 2m4f, Joe. But doubt he’s so good on soft. As you say, I was also impressed at how well he travelled to two out in a Grade 1 2m chase. Got a bit unsighted there. Suspect he’ll be best going a fast pace from the front at 2 miles.
Value Is EverythingHuntingdon abandoned; 3cm of snow on the course.
There’s a possibility that the meeting can be re-scheduled but I doubt it personally. It’s a shame as it would have been awfully interesting to see Top Notch have to concede weight to some handy opposition.
With the meeting abandoned, surely we get our money back?
Even though he wasn’t declared, there is no race for him to have run in.
Got to be a void bet surely?
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