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French Horse Racing 2017

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Viewing 13 posts - 154 through 166 (of 166 total)
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  • #1309540
    Avatar photoVoleur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 656

    Al Wukair returns to action in the Prix Messidor next weekend at Maisons-laffitte. Al Shaqab’s racing manager Harry Herbert gave little away regarding his plans beyond that. They already have what looks to me the best 3yo in Europe with Brametot for 10f and beyond, and Zelzal is confirmed for the Sussex Stakes, so where does Al Wukair fit in? Interestingly Herbert said Brametot was a “substitute” for Al Wukair in the Jockey Club, so could we see Brametot back down to a mile and Al Wukair stepped up?

    It seems like a messy situation but there are plenty of Group 1’s still to be ran in France, perhaps we might see one of them in the Prix Jacques le Marois before coming over for the Irish Champion Stakes.

    #1309550
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34771

    Having backed Thunder Snow I was delighted to see Trais Fluors so far back, although he made late ground the result was in the bag
    Did you see the jockey in the stalls on Lightupthenight, the horse stayed in the stalls and the jockey just sat there waiting instead of pushing or kicking and after giving a half a furlong head start the horse decided to go

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    #1309551
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    Well done Nathan, presumably a nice bit of BOG action if you got on early too!

    I’m a bit gutted I didn’t join in on Thunder Snow before the off. I made my G1 trading debut in this race today. When I priced it up last night, my blind line was EVS Thunder Snow, 11/8 Trais Fluors (112% book).

    I duly took the early 7/4 about the French horse but inexplicably left the late 13/8 Thunder Snow untouched. :negative:

    Maybe that red-headed fella who says “value is everything” might be onto something.

    #1309554
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34771

    I was on at 6/5 with Skybet, sadly not bog

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    #1309567
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    I suppose, nice little boost for Saeed bin Suroor too. Thunder Snow is a hardy little slugger as you say Charles – and it does take some skillful handling to keep a globetrotting 3yo sweet. Big Saeed back in business?

    LOL Steve I think the Equidia and ATR boys definitely had all the marbles on Trais Fluor! It’s rare you hear racing media dishing out that sort of dressing down to a jockey.

    One of them said he had phoned his contact in France and been told that Trais Fluors was “The business”

    In the aftermath, I could sense the silent seething and pins being stuck into a hastily constructed voodoo doll of jockey Cheminaud , a name that apparently translates into English as “Not the sharpest cheese in the cracker box” Hopefully one, or more, of the pins went right up the Eurotunnel :whistle:

    It was one of those ironic races where the value flip-flopped but it was too late to regroup. The outcome was obvious from a long way out today. Even Diane Abbott could work out what was going to happen and that Thunder Snow was going to win at 150/1, with 100/1 Fav Trais Fluor taking second place.

    Abbott’s Bookmakers, the shortest lived firm in betting history.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1311095
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    Here we go again boys – Sunday French G1 judge’s convention ready to assemble!

    It’s the Prix Robert Papin tomorrow and Heartache is a solid, if perhaps somewhat skinny fav at 8/15. She has done some amazing things on the clock but must prove herself against the colts here.

    My only bet so far is High Dream Milena each-way. Criquette Head-Maarek has won this race with Special Duty in the past. Her runner this year looks exciting after a very impressive debut, with form working out brilliantly. I took some of the early 18/1 each-way and will probably top up on the 16s. If she’s still double figures in places tomorrow, the derived ‘without Heartache’ price could be very attractive.

    #1311165
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 34771

    Great run from your selection LS, had to snatch up at a vital time

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    #1311169
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    Yeah, really frustrating Nathan. This bad rides/bad luck thing is becoming a theme with my French bets.

    Hope Lord George can break the curse later on!

    #1311968
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2031

    Well done anyone who backed Roly Poly today, giving O’Brien his first win in the Rothschild. A cracking ride from Moore and we are yet again left wondering; just how good is Winter?

    #1325825
    arauch
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1

    Hi,

    I am german racing fan who is new to this forum. I have been particularly interested in French racing for a while. However I quickly noticed that resarching form is very cumbersome since data is not as easily available as for UK
    races.

    Therefore I set our to build my own database, thinking this might easily give me an
    edge over other punters. This database contains all french race results since January
    2015
    . Buildig on this database I created a dashboard in Excel (using thousands of lines of code in sql) which helps me analyse races in detail. One major advantage is that I do not have to click 1000 of times to get all info but have it all available in one excel file.

    To give you a quick idea. the dashboard contains all typical info that you can also find elsewhere (race conditions, runners, jockey, trainer, weight, draw etc.). But it also contains detailed information that can really give you an edge in your bets.

    More specifically the dashboard contains:

    *Horse data: e.g.results in the last 365 days, results on todays going, course, distance, today’s jockey-

    *Ratings: I do individual ratings for french races (like for example racing post ratings). The scale relates not to the UK official ratings scale but to the french valeur rating scale

    *trainer stats: trainer results in the last year, trainer form (last 15 runs), results on today’s course, class, racetype (seller, handicap etc.) agetype.

    *jockey stats: jockey stats in the last year, jockey form (last 15 runs), results on today#s course,

    *trainer-jockey combination stats

    *forecasted odds based on a regression model

    *sire stats: results since Jan 2015, median earning per run of sire’s runners, median

    *rating os sire’s runners, going preferences of progeny

    *damsire stats: see sire stats

    *draw stats for particular draws on the course of the rase

    *horse performance info for each of last 5 outings of the horse: race conditions, rating (my calculation), speed rating (my calucation), postion/runners, lenghtsback, sp, form frank stats (i.e. which runner in the race did run sine and how did it do), detailed results of the first 6, information how the horse performed in comparison to an opponent in today’s race (if the opponent has also run in that race), comments in running (these are currently in french and by Paris turf – for copyright reasons these will not be part of the commercial version, I plan to do English comments in running myself)

    *performance stats of the horse’s last run on today’s course/going

    *Links to the video replays provided by france galop (registration free, if the link does not work please read comment in excel)

    I am doing these dashboards for a while now. And they help me a lot. If I have the time to use them I make an average 15 percent ROI (I only bet win only). However,since I have a time-consuming job I cannot use it as much as I want to. Still I am producing these dashboards nearly every day. That is why I was thinking that my dashbboards might be useful to someone else

    If you are interested, please check out the link below. Unfortunately, you need MS excel to view it. It shows one dashboard for the 5th race in Pornichet on 9.11.17. For optimal viewing you need to download instead of viewing it online and put the zoom to about 160%. I provided detailed explanations as comments in the cells which you can see b< hovering over the cell

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/z9iijw63lvossgh/09-11-2017%20Pornichet%20Race5.xlsx?dl=0

    If you are interested in daily versions of the dashboard for each major rracecard in France please drop me a message. I will put you an a list and inform you when I plan to go live with the daily dashboard. Also pleas indicate your what your willingness to pay would be for one excel doc incl. 8 to 16 races of any particular day.

    I plan to “go live” with the daily dashboard in January 2018 – in case enough people are interested in purchasing it.

    I also welcome any feedback what you think of the dashboard and help me further improve it. Also please share the excel to anyone who might be interested.

    Best

    #1325901
    Avatar photoTheBluesBrother
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1089

    Therefore I set our to build my own database, thinking this might easily give me an
    edge over other punters. This database contains all french race results since January
    2015.

    My database for French racing which is supplied by a contact goes back to 1982, and this covers all grade 1, 2 & 3 French racecourses.

    This comes in very handy when working on the standard times for french racing, for example, I was just updating the standard times for Compiegne, the national hunt course is very tricky, it is mainly a figure of eight course.

    Speed figures wise, I just specialise in the French galop run racecourses, my favourite racecourse being Auteuil, I get to spot the good 3yo’s like Master Dino.

    Mike.

    #1325903
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 10229

    I think I’m just going to back everything that James Reveley rides for Guillaime [sp] Macaire….

    #1325956
    Avatar photoEx RubyLight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5885

    Mr. arauch,

    what is the verdict for that particular race?

    Please name the top three picks. Thank you and good luck!

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