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If he’d won his last 2 races by 3 or 4 lengths instead of 23 lengths no one would be questioning whether he’d train on or not and given his connections he’d have still be high up in the Derby lists if not favourite.
Haven’t had such a buzz about a 2yo since Gorytus.
Does anyone here, hand on heart, seriously think that anything has got any chance of beating Frankel weather it be Saamidd, Native Khan, Pathfork, Casamento in either the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy.
The electrifying burst he produced 3f out and then the relentless gallop to the line in the Royal Lodge, would surely have broken the resolve of the others. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if the others waited for a decision on Frankel’s next race and swerve it like the plague.
By the way Timeform now rate him at 129p!
Whether its an age thing or the onset of cynicism born of getting one’s fingers burnt on many an occasion in the past, I am currently finding it hard to get too carried away with Frankel’s chances of classic glory in 2011.
Once he has trounced the Dewhurst (or Racing Post Trophy) opposition then we can all say he has done it at the highest level and this is a serious horse. Of course he was visually almost unbelievably impressive at both Doncaster and Ascot but lets not forget Armiger won the Racing Post Trophy doing handsprings for the very same connections who also happened to train the following year’s English and Irish Derby winner who wouldn’t even set foot on a racetrack until the following April – it wouldn’t be the biggest shock of all time if Picture Editor ended up being the more successful of the two Warren Place inmates in the fullness of time, the son of Shirley Valentine being impeccably bred and a late developing May foal.
There is plenty of merit in backing horses ante-post, but not at 5/2 for a race to be run in 7 months time. One must conclude therefore that the time to have backed Frankel was either before Ascot or even the Doncaster race – lets face it, it was hardly a well kept secret that he was burning the Nemwarket gallops as Tony Elves was mentioning him in glowing despatches several weeks before debut.
A lot is also being made of Henry Cecil’s claim that Frankel is the best 2-y-o he has trained since Wollow. However with closer inspection you quickly see that in that 35 year gap Cecil’s champion 2-y-o material has been pretty thin on the ground.
As mentioned in an earlier post Hello Gorgeous and Dunbeath took the Royal Lodge/Racing Post Trophy route although neither were champion juveniles – Cecil’s own Diesis was the superior to Dunbeath in 1982, both colts failing to make any impact at Pattern Level as 3 year olds. Indeed Dieses was the chief beneficiary in the 1982 Dewhurst when supposed “wonder horse” Gorytus failed to live up to expectations.
Hello Gorgeous did at least win a Dante and was narrowly defeated in the Eclipse by Ela-Mana-Mou prior, as was posted by an earlier member, to injury curtailing his career.
In 1985 Bonhomie became Cecil’s second Royal Lodge winner and did at least acquit himself reasonably well at 3 winning the King Edward VII and chasing home Shahrastani in the Irish Derby.
I was rather surprised Cecil was so quick to put Frankel ahead of Reference Point, who was the Champion 2-y-o of 1986 following a scintillating Racing Post Trophy display from, ironically, that season’s royal Lodge winner Bengal Fire. I wouldn’t for one minute suggest Frankel and Reference Point are similar types – Reference Point did it the hard way setting attritional fractions, whilst Frankel possesses an explosive race ending turn of foot. However Frankel is yet to defeat the winner of a recognised top class juvenile contest – of course in two weeks time that may well have changed.
Following the 1986 campaign Cecil produced a glut of juvenile colts with pretensions of classic winning ability, only for them to either fail to train on at 3 or simply not quite reach top class. Reprimand (who if he had beaten Warning in the abandoned 1987 Dewhurst would no doubt have been the top rated juvenile colt) fitting the latter category and Sanquirico, High Estate, Be My Chief and Peter Davies all proving bitter disappointments in their second seasons – the latter three all Racing Post Trophy victors.
I have already touched on Armiger, who picked up the mantle of Cecil’s clutch of underperforming formerly top class 2-y-‘s of the late 80’s when his top achievements at 3 amounted to a Chester Vase and a runners up berth in a sub-standard St Leger.
Other than Eltish in 1994 (Vintage Stakes), and Daggers Drawn (Richmond/Champagne Stakes) in 1997, Cecil hasn’t had a 2-y-o colt of any significance – which even given his dark days in the first half of this century, is a poor tally.
A lot is being read into Cecil’s “Wollow” comparison but when you consider his record of producing top class 2-y-o colts who go on to top class honours at 3, the only one other than Wollow is Reference Point – so that’s 2 in 35 years, plus 9 others who failed to win a Classic at 3. So it seems to me that Cecil’s success with Group 1 winning 3-y-o colts has come mainly from slow maturing types who either do not run at 2 or have light and low key campaigns. His record in the 2,000 Guineas is also very poor for a trainer of his ability and reputation. It may of course be argued that he simply has not had the fire power to target that race in the same way he has farmed some of the fillies’ classics. Whatever the reasons, the trends do make poor reading for anyone wanting to follow Frankel over a cliff at Newmarket next May.
Everybody, myself included, would love nothing more than Frankel to spearhead a Cecil assault on the trainer’s title of 2011- personally I tend to agree with the view that Frankel will stay the Derby trip and would love to see Cecil bag a 5th Epsom Derby.. However I think caution is advised at the moment in order to avoid disappointment. We are not yet a full season on from the unique exploits of Sea The Stars and we all know how rarely a true great comes along.
We may be lucky to get another one so soon, but history tells us the chances are fairly remote so I really think the comparisons being with Sea Bird, Brigadier Gerard et al are extremely premature. At best comparison should be confined to other top class juveniles and at present it seems Celtic Swing is the best one to compare Frankel with in terms of the distance he puts between himself and his rivals. Comparisons with Arazi’s BC Juvenile seem odd as Boutin’s colt was ridden way off the pace in a much bigger field – Frankel’s decisive move 3f out at Ascot only saw him make up 3-4 lengths. How many did Arazi make up down the back stretch at Churchill Downs? Considerably more as I recall.
One final point. When horses go away from their field with apparent ease, winning by huge margins in exceptional times they can be taking a lot more out of themselves, both physically and mentally, than we realise. With Celtic Swing for instance there was always the feeling that he may have given so much at two that it left its mark at three – this certainly seemed the case with Arazi. It may seem ridiculous to suggest a French Derby winner and English Guineas runner up disappointed, but there was the feeling at the end of 1995 that Celtic Swing had failed to live up to his awesome juvenile promise.
I know Frankel appeared to win his two most recent races unextended, but is he the sort of horse who simply takes off and the jockey cannot hold him? Putting it another way would Queally have been better advised to win cosily by a couple of lengths on each occasion rather than trying to break track records? Of course only time will tell but as is far more often the case than not, when in horse racing something looks too good to be true, it usually is.
A magnificent post, Ivanjica. Inspirational and thought provoking in equal measure.
Post of the year by some way, I think.
Horse looks very forward to me, and while he has been devastatingly impressive so far, it’s hard to imagine he’ll go on filling out at the same rate. Question is, though: Will he need to?
On breeding, it really is anyones guess as to whether he’ll get twelve furlongs, being out of a sprinter by Danehill – but there’s stamina from the grand dam and beyond.
What I like most at this stage, is his appetite for the race track and willingness to stretch right out.
I wonder how many of the people questioning Frankel on this thread have missed the fancy prices and are somehow trying to make themselves feel better?
I definitely think there is some truth in this, myself definitely. A friend of mine in America were e-maililng about this, and we both said the bet for next year would be White Moonstone/Frankel Oaks/Derby double for next year when the prices were 16s and 12s, but never got round to putting anything on!
Funny how people wonder will a Galileo get a mile and a half.Cape Blanco did after people questioned whether he would get a mile and a half.If a mare gives speed does that mean the sire cannot give stamina?Is not the whole idea of breeding to get the best from both parents?
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Sea the Stars was so good over 10f a lot of people thought he wouldn’t get the Arc trip and he ended up doing better over the trip than he did 10f
How do you work that one out? He ran below form in the Arc and his class got him through.
You have no idea how wrong you are.
Who said Sea the Stars ran below form?
Timeform did?
Why?
Because they made a complete bollox of his rating compared with Zarkava’s so they had to come up with BS to save face.
Sea the Stars put up a fantastic performance in the Arc destrying everything in a matter of strides, below form my giddy aunt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Interesting post, Ivanjica, although there are a couple of factual errors: Bonhomie (1985) was Cecil’s third Royal Lodge winner, following Hello Gorgeous (1979) and Dunbeath (1982); High Estate (1988) did not win the Futurity, having been sidelined with a split pastern after his narrow Royal Lodge victory over stablemate Samoan.
While it’s true that many top two year olds fail to train on, no matter who their trainer may be, racing is (like most things these days) dominated by hype and there is nothing easier for the media than taking a ten-length victory and devoting paeans of praise to it. We all look for a new champion every season and Frankel’s victories have been stunning- at the moment, he fully deserves all the praise.
Whether or not he’ll train on is open to conjecture and only time will tell; however, he has both the frame and the temperament to suggest that he will. He reminds me a lot of Diesis, who sustained an injury over the winter and never recaptured his juvenile brilliance- let’s hope that Frankel isn’t as unfortunate.
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You so right about us punters we are always looking for the next Arkle or the next Sea BirdII/Secretariat.
I’ve been trying to keep a level head and look for something thst indicates he’s not "The One" we’ve all been waiting for but no matter how you cut it this horses passes every test.
He’s only two yet he put up a sectional time from anywhere you like that it matter’s, be it 4f from home 3f from home or 2f from home that would have seen him winning the QEII by about 5 to 6 lengths and Rom Queaaly was easing him down.
The following day I am assuming the sprinter Lady of the Desert was running on faster ground than they were on the round track. She certainly put up the best time of the day by a fair margin 0.63 slow. She started to quicken 2f out but she still covered that 2 furlongs a lot slower than Frankel did and again you have to consider TQ stopped riding him well inside the final furlong.
We’ll find out a lot more when he runs in the Dewhurst if something decent like Saamidd actually turns up.
He’s the one with the best rep and I doubt if Henry will bottle out but I don’t know I’d be keen to take him so early.
At this stage it’s more about getting the right print against your name and winning Group 1’s than it is proving your better than the next guy.
I don’t know what Godolphinare thinking but they’d be stone mad not to switch to the Racing Post especially if Native Khan runs in France.
There is plenty of merit in backing horses ante-post, but not at 5/2 for a race to be run in 7 months time.
Absolutely,but those with double figure prices will be dreaming through the winter and thats what makes Ante-Post betting so satisfying! Not that i am one of them on this occassion mind as i have my doubts about this fellow maintaining such high class form! A truly brilliant post as Max mentions from someone who obviously knows their racing! Mr W if only you could string 2 or 3 sentances together of the quality of Ivanjica then you might earn a bit of credibility! There"s more Chance of Redford winning the Gold Cup! At Cheltenham!
Tuesday 28th September 2010, for immediate release
FRANKEL RATED THE BEST ROYAL LODGE WINNER FOR 20 YEARS
Frankel has been allotted an official rating of 123 following his wide margin victory in Saturday’s Group 2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot.
Commenting on the rating, Matthew Tester, BHA Handicapper for two year olds, said:
“It was impossible not to be impressed with the style of Frankel’s win at Ascot on Saturday when landing the Royal Lodge by ten lengths. Whilst it is true that none of his opponents were likely to test a champion, the manner of his run and the huge winning margin has landed him an official rating of 123.
“This is easily the best Royal Lodge performance of the last twenty years and puts him well ahead of horses like Benny The Dip (113) and Mister Baileys (115), who won the race before success in the Derby and the 2,000 Guineas respectively the next year. Eltish at 118 is the next highest winner for this race and he went on to run 2nd the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile back in 1994.
“I can’t wait to see Frankel take on stronger opposition next time in the Dewhurst Stakes. In the last ten years the highest rated 2yos have been Johannesburg and New Approach, each of whom reached 126. It is sixteen years since Celtic Swing was credited with 130 for crushing his Racing Post Trophy opposition and it will be exciting to see if Frankel can hit those heights."
Age coupled with experience tells us not to get carried away ( re: Crowned Prince, Circus Ring, Gorytus, Danzatore, Arazi et al ) over potentially exciting racehorses; and whilst I did urge a note of caution over Frankel, I also think – especially following his Ascot performance – that we may just be in the midst of the second coming. Sea Bird, anyone ?
The galloping style and ease of movement is certainly quite similar.When posed the question, Frankel v Saammid, I did, rather hastily, plump for the latter – mainly on the fresh evidence of the Godolphin horse’s last authoritative victory.
None the less, us mere TRF mortals are allowed to change our minds now and again, are we not ?
Frankel’s effortless and decisive change of gear ( yes, ok, albeit at in a slowly run race ) was the mark of a potential champion.
For me, the last really great two year old was Mill Reef; before him, Nijinsky. Frankel could well turn out to be in that bracket. He runs next in the Dewhurst, right ? I suggest you all have a small wager on him occupying the winning berth after the race is over. You know it makes sense.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Tuesday 28th September 2010, for immediate release
FRANKEL RATED THE BEST ROYAL LODGE WINNER FOR 20 YEARS
“Eltish at 118 is the next highest winner for this race and he went on to land the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile back in 1994.
“I can’t wait to see Frankel take on stronger opposition next time in the Dewhurst Stakes. In the last ten years the highest rated 2yos have been Johannesburg and New Approach, each of whom reached 126. It is sixteen years since Celtic Swing was credited with 130 for crushing his Racing Post Trophy opposition and it will be exciting to see if Frankel can hit those heights."
Quite right yquem21, Bonhomie was indeed the 3rd Royal Lodge winner behind Hello Gorgeous and Dunbeath and High Estate’s juvenile season peak also came in the royal Lodge – well it was nearly 2 in the morning!!!
On the subject of factual errors Eltish did not win the BC Juvenile (as suggested in the last post) – he was runner up to the subsequent Preakness winner Timber Country. Whilst a perfromance of some merit, Eltish remains for me another example of a Cecil trained juvenile colt who proved disappointing at 3, and ironically ending up in the care of Bobby Frankel as a 4-y-o. Also he was a peer of Celtic Swing finishing 3rd to that horse’s Guineas conqueror Pennekamp in the Dewhurst – a race for which he went off joint favourite with the french animal.
On a slightly different tack, and to moan a little, I read with interest yesterday’s RP "Expert Jury" and must say Nicholas Watts statement that "I don go back to the days of Wollow" struck me as lazy journalism. All too often I hear or read racing newbies say "that was before my time". What is wrong with doing a bit of research? I wasn’t born when Ormonde won a triple crown and ended his career with 16 wins to his name from 16 starts, or when Sceptre took 4 out 5 English Classics – and she was a filly. Nor was I born when Ribot and Sea Bird II danced on the equine stage of immortality, or when Kinscem won 54 races in 54 career starts – it doesn’t stop me being able to acknowledge those sort of horse’s acheivements and place them in some sort of historical persepctive which can assist with chossing the extent to which we heap plaudits on modern day animals.
On a slightly different tack, and to moan a little, I read with interest yesterday’s RP "Expert Jury" and must say Nicholas Watts statement that "I don go back to the days of Wollow" struck me as lazy journalism. All too often I hear or read racing newbies say "that was before my time". What is wrong with doing a bit of research? I wasn’t born when Ormonde won a triple crown and ended his career with 16 wins to his name from 16 starts, or when Sceptre took 4 out 5 English Classics – and she was a filly. Nor was I born when Ribot and Sea Bird II danced on the equine stage of immortality, or when Kinscem won 54 races in 54 career starts – it doesn’t stop me being able to acknowledge those sort of horse’s acheivements and place them in some sort of historical persepctive which can assist with chossing the extent to which we heap plaudits on modern day animals.
Well said.
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Surprise surprise!! Frankie Deeeeeeeetooooori is saying Sammidd will not take on Frankel in the Dewhurst but will run in the Racing Post.
Was never on really, common sense decision.
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Tuesday 28th September 2010, for immediate release
FRANKEL RATED THE BEST ROYAL LODGE WINNER FOR 20 YEARS
Frankel has been allotted an official rating of 123 following his wide margin victory in Saturday’s Group 2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot.
Commenting on the rating, Matthew Tester, BHA Handicapper for two year olds, said:
“It was impossible not to be impressed with the style of Frankel’s win at Ascot on Saturday when landing the Royal Lodge by ten lengths. Whilst it is true that none of his opponents were likely to test a champion, the manner of his run and the huge winning margin has landed him an official rating of 123.
“This is easily the best Royal Lodge performance of the last twenty years and puts him well ahead of horses like Benny The Dip (113) and Mister Baileys (115), who won the race before success in the Derby and the 2,000 Guineas respectively the next year. Eltish at 118 is the next highest winner for this race and he went on to run 2nd the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile back in 1994.
“I can’t wait to see Frankel take on stronger opposition next time in the Dewhurst Stakes. In the last ten years the highest rated 2yos have been Johannesburg and New Approach, each of whom reached 126. It is sixteen years since Celtic Swing was credited with 130 for crushing his Racing Post Trophy opposition and it will be exciting to see if Frankel can hit those heights."
Any chance of a recount? Nothing’s going to turn up for the Dewhurst and he’s probably go off a round 1/5 for the race. What then?
Really when you think about it strictly on what he beat he’d be no more than a 115 horse (as if I know what I’m talking about) but for guys like me who look and judge I’d say he’s a far far better 2yo than New Approach ever was.
If Frankel never turned out again this season and New Approach was around with the same form as he had back then, Frankel would still be 2/1 fav for the Guineas and if you asked Johnny Murtagh which he wanted to ride next year which woud he chose do you think?
Get back to the drawing board he’s already 129 with a big plus waiting to happen.
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