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Someone knew it…..
But was this not about shortest price in a horse race with 3 or more runners, if you look back at the past 10-15 years? Maybe I didn’t pay much attention to even shorter winners.
There have been quite a few examples in the last two weeks where short priced favourites have been backed into even shorter prices.
It would be very interesting to know who placed these bets and where.
How much does it take to shorten a horse from 1/14 into 1/33? Is there anyone out there investing 33 grand to win 1k in a hurdle race with three other runners who could possibly impede your horse? 2m4f to run and hurdles to jump as well….
From 1/14 to 1/33 may sound big, but it is only a move of around 3.75%.
ie If a punter believes the horse has LESS than a 6.67% chance of LOSING it would (technically) be a good bet to win @ 1/14.
@ 1/33 it would need to be believed LESS than a 2.94% chance of LOSING to be a good bet to win.
Difference between the two being 3.73%.
The bets would need to be a fair size if the market was a tempting one, but wouldn’t take many wagers for the horse to move like that. That said, the market is often weak because – let’s face it – when there is a 1/14 shot not many punters get involved in backing the other horses either.. No money for the other two means it wouldn’t necessarily take much money to move the long odds-on fav in that way.
If it’s happening with more regularity is Harry back?
I remember Harry Findlay saying he kept on backing long odds on chances. Doing so obviously means there’s a large probability of an extremely long winning run. However (as I believe happened to Harry) when the inevitable one or two reversals come it can wipe profits out entirely.Value Is EverythingI find such short odds particularly bizarre over jumps given the risk of falls and unseats.
I asked a similar question about very short odds in another thread a while back. For races with 3 or more runners in the last 15 years or so, Seamless had the shortest winning odds that I’m aware of.
He won a 3-runner flat race at Yarmouth in 2013 at 1/50.
Next time you are at a jumps meeting, get as close as you can to an obstacle and watch (and listen). The sheer power and ferocity of a horse jumping an obstacle and landing on what seem like wafer-thin legs would put you off ever betting at long odds on
As stated above it all depends on how weak the market was.
Such markets are usually weak due to lack of punter interest and grossly uncompetitive races tend to occur at quiet midweek meetings.
Punters win long term by obtaining value.
Trying to “be God” and think you can back the winner of literally every race is a deeply-deluded strategy.
I would also say it’s a sign of insecurity – that need to have a “resassuring” constant flow of winners for personal reaffirmation as some punters would rather have a 60% strike rate with 1/2 favourites (long term loss) than a 4% strike rate with 33/1 shots (long term profit).
Things can – and will – go wrong in racing and the percentages grind you down.
Yes, I can be at a Point and see a 1/2 favourite which should be 1/8 because it’s only got to jump round and I will have a bet.
But off course I find the value often lies among horses at longer prices.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I would like to think the relevant authorities in Britain and Ireland have looked into the betting patterns and the possibility of money laundering.
Investing your dirty money on a 1/20 chance looks like a very low risk way of turning your money clean.
Betway or such filth once priced up horse to something like 1/8 which was the range but forgot to alter the place only market and were a bigger price for the horse to finish 1st or 2nd
and that was a flat race so more chance of finishingGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
If you try to launder money, doesn’t it make more sense to wait for let’s say a three runner race with just about equal chances? Supposed you have 12k you have to get clean and in that specific race every of the three runners is available at around 7/4 or 15/8. You could place your bets in three different places at the above mentioned prices and have a 11k payout guaranteed for a 12k stake.
Instead of having 12k in dirty money, you could have 11k clean without risking the entire amount on a horse that has to get round and win.Excellent – an optimum betting ring money-laundering strategy discussion!
I look forward to continuing this chat in person when we all meet up on remand later – maybe we can all hire and share the same “Brief!”
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Surely you can use any book to launder money if you were that way inclined? Might be hard work on the Cesarewitch admittedly but it could be done.
Few observations-
AJ Honeyball is not a gambling trainer/stable by any means.
Sporty Jim was a NR with a 40p in the £ rule 4 on bet 365 where I was looking.
Sporty Jim’s withdrawal made it a four runner/no each way race which would push out the outsiders and as a result harden Fountains Chief. There was a good discussion on Twitter lately about short price each way betting and what it would really return you in the long run- yes there are people who would back Sporty Jim at 7/4 or whatever he was each way…..
“Sporty Jim was a NR with a 40p in the £ rule 4 on bet 365 where I was looking.
Sporty Jim’s withdrawal made it a four runner/no each way race which would push out the outsiders and as a result harden Fountains Chief”.———————————
Excellent point, FJ.
Value Is EverythingWell said befair.
There is a lot to go wrong over
the sticks.
Having said that, I keep trying.A good form “book” tells the punter who are more likely to make mistakes and fall though…
On the flat getting hemmed in is a much bigger problem than it is with Jump racing and they are less easy to predict than who will make mistakes / fall.
And many more flat horses pull their chance away.
…And Pace in the race is a bigger factor on the flat too.
All things that can go wrong and therefore big factors in who wins the race.
Although no one thing ends a horse’s chance immediately on the flat like obstacles do; there is imo more things that can go wrong and these add up.
In my experience the difference between Jumps and Flat racing in what goes wrong is much less than many seem to think.
Value Is Everything
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