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How many punters back a few “clear when fell last” during the winter, embrace the Flat and then run into “dwelt start, couldn’t get clear run, eighth but won on stands’ side?”
Both codes bring their own pitfalls.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"If you are betting on Betfair, if your horse jumps the second last five lengths clear and powers on to the last, you can almost certainly cash out for almost all your potential winnings, taking out the risk of falling at the last.
If you back one on the Flat which dwells when the stalls open and then pulls like a mustang, you have had it.
While I agree that there is plenty that go wrong on the Flat too, I think many of the risks mentioned tend to reduce significantly in the very small fields where long odds on shots arise. I don’t think the risks associated with jumping round reduce to the same extent.
GT writes:
“ie if a punter believes the horse has LESS than a 6.67% chance of LOSING it would (technically) be a good bet to win @ 1/14. @ 1/33 it would need to be believed LESS than a 2.94% chance of LOSING to be a good bet to win.”
I’m wondering whether it’s a realistic scenario for a punter to look at the form, note the 1/14, and calculate that the beast has a lower than 6.67% chance of losing. Or to look at the form, note the 1/33, and calculate that a horse has a lower than a 2.94% of losing. I can’t see how such assessments might work.
To declare my position on odds-on chances, I wouldn’t take 4/5 I am still alive.
My scenario Seasider, was more to show that from 1/14 to 1/33 wasn’t that big a move.
Personally I am not as good at working out races with medium to long odds-on chances in them – so I don’t bother working out races with 4/6 or worse favs – but am sure there are some punters who can.
In reality, working out whether a horse has a less than 6.67% chance of losing should be similar to me working out whether a 14/1 shot has more than a 6.67% chance of winning… And – although I do say so myself – have been pretty good at identifying those over the years.
Value Is EverythingGT – I got your main point.
My comments are more rhetorical than questioning. I wasn’t expecting an answer because you, rightly and evidently, don’t bet at such cramped odds. I guess we need someone who takes these very short prices to come in and explain exactly what goes through their brain when contemplating a punt.
Alas, the chances of there being anyone in that category on this forum are vanishingly small.
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