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Of course they can get it wrong but as you know this is a game of odds and it’s pretty unlikely that with her experience and ability a potential champion hurdle winner with a few runs under the belt didn’t even warrant an entry
I do wonder at times how smart some trainers really are
Jessie Harrington, 2 winners from 9 runners at the first Dublin festival of racing, a strike rate of 22% (cf Willie Mullins 17%). 3 from 6 at last year’s Cheltenham Festival including the Gold Cup with her first ever runner in the race, to add to her wins in previous years in the Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase; won the Irish National last year for good measure. Thick as mince, clearly.
The one thing that would be in the back of my mind is this – what sort of preparation would Mullins really have been able to give him off the back of the Christmas run and the subsequent testing they did on him before, how much stronger work would they have been able to get into him in the last few weeks after being given the all clear to resume full work.
Not convinced that what we saw was a full peak Faugheen fitness wise and as long as the horse has no issues going forward that will hopefully give Mullins a clear run at preparing him for the race with no excuses and let the chips fall where they will.
Most will consider this a glass half full point of view and I get that at his age it is unlikely he will be capable of running to his previous vaulted marks but I think at the very least he deserves the opportunity to go to the CH again.
It takes very special horses to win the race as a 10 yr old (Hattons Grace & Sea Pigeon I believe are the only ones to do it – they both went on to win it at 11 as well) but stranger things do happen and as the saying goes – you gotta be in it to win it.
Timeform dropped Faugheen to 163 in their ratings, describing his performance as “Below par”
The assessor went on to state that “The horse is clearly not the dominant performer he once was”
The strength in depth is severely lacking in this division though and Faugheen is still capable of placing at Cheltenham in my opinion.
I feel they should run him if he is sound and that previous pulled up effort is the reason I would not back him for the Festival. I don’t think he has a chance of beating Buveur D’air, who has not had to do anything but tick over until the big day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Faugheen is a horse very close to my heart. I’ve seen him race in the flesh numerous times, and remember mentioning him on here as having had a big reputation before his bumper. In the five years since then, he has certainly lived up to and beyond that early reputation. He has been a fantastic horse. He won a Neptune despite making potentially race ending errors at the second and third last hurdles. He put a Champion Hurdle to bed in a matter of strides two furlongs from home. Yet his performances at Punchestown after both of those runs were even more impressive, winning them by a aggregate of 19 lengths. The performance of his life came in the Irish Champion Hurdle two years ago, slamming Arctic Fire by 15 lengths with Nichols Canyon 28 lengths adrift. He has given me some great memories, and if he never wins another race so be it.
As far as I’m concerned, there are two ways we can view his recent performances.
1) Old age the reason
Everywhere I have looked, it seems almost universally accepted that Faugheen is now over the hill – he is too old, and time catches up with all horses. When horses begin the downgrade at the end of their careers, their level of form can drop at varying levels, and it could just be he no longer has the legs to hold off horses he’d have beaten 10-20 lengths two years ago. His reappearance looked good at the time, but the level of form could be questioned, and his two runs since certainly don’t suggest he can play a hand in a Champion Hurdle.
2) Something else amiss
I haven’t seen anyone suggesting there might be something else amiss other than old age. His run at Christmas was far too bad to be down to ageing legs in my opinion. Surely if it was, we could have expected a similar performance or worse on Saturday. This view therefore seems to be drawn solely from the Irish Champion Hurdle – in my opinion it is dangerous to draw such firm conclusions on the basis of one below par effort.
On Saturday he was all out to beat Jezki nine lengths. Only 10 weeks ago he beat the same horse 16 lengths without coming off the bridle, racing with what looked to be all his old enthusiasm. Jezki is unreliable these days but he came into that race in good form having easily won a Grade 3 in Tipperary. I’m pretty sure I read somewhere that Timeform rated that run higher than anything Buveur D’Air had every posted. In 10 weeks are we really to believe he has deteriorated from putting up the best two mile performance of the season to what he showed on Saturday due to old age?
There’s more to it than that in my opinion. Something was obviously wrong at Christmas. They couldn’t find what was ailing him but I doubt they were overly hard on him coming into this race. His run on Saturday reminded me of his run behind Nichols Canyon in the Morgiana in 2015, when push cam to shove that famed kick into top gear was non-existent, he did no more than stay on one paced up the hill.
Look, I’m not saying Faugheen is going to roll back the years in Cheltenham, and I agree with the majority in that it is unlikely he will come back to his very best now at the age of 10, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he showed a significant improvement from that run before the season is out, at either Cheltenham or Punchestown. He’s still the horse with the best chance of making a race of it with Buveur D’Air.
I fully agree with your post THM.
But let’s be honest and more realistic about Faugheen:
He won the Neptune beating horses which are only rated between 130-150. Cole Harden was 7th that day and is the only one from that race who went on to better things.
The CH he won a year later was not a vintage one. Hurricane Fly was already eleven, TNO was always going to be better suited by 2m4f and the runner up Arctic Fire is simply just a decent yardstick. His favorite trip is also over 2m4f.
The 4-runner Punchestown CH a few weeks later wasn’t really a race with two very poor horses running at SPs of 33/1 and 50/1. The same applies to the Irish CH in 2016 with only Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire in it. In the end, no matter how easily he won his races, he never looked like a machine.There was and there still might be just too much hype surrounding the horse. Now at the age of ten and with all the injuries he’s had, it’s time to realize that he won’t win a decent G1 over hurdles anymore. He fully deserves his place in the CH, but will only be running for minor prize money.
Ruby,
The Champion Hurdle he won had a very good mid 160 horse Arctic Fire behind….Hurricane Fly for all you mention his age, still did ok that season, Jezki too. The New One is still winning plenty of G2s this year, and is a good warrior. Its the strongest renewal in a few years if you ask me?
You are knocking very good horses, and then looking for outright negatives like “with two very poor horses running at SPs of 33/1 and 50/1″…many grade 1s have horses running for prize money. The 8Ls to Arctic Fire itself is a fine performance, he’d go very close to winning this years renewal (AF) .
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Yes, but Arctic Fire’s ideal trip is over 2m4f. The same applies to The New One. He beat horses in the mid 160s, that’s true. But they weren’t racing over their ideal trip. And the word “machine” for a horse winning just one CH is quite exaggerating.
Comeeee on ruby lol
The horse never got the chance to show in his prime, very harsh analysis of faugheen, he would be a MULTIPLE ch winner if not for injury, thats not even a maybe, its a definite. (Barring a fall)
Bvds ch hurdle last year was worse than faugheens, this year will be worse and next year will be worse again, (unless they leave samcro over hurdles)
And if arctic fire ran he wouldnt be far away this year, hes not an average horse by any means, how can you say his best trip was 2m4 lol, because he won the hattons grace comfortably beating ADO? His form over 2m is every bit as good as his form over 2m4, that win at cheltenham last year over 2m off topweight was remarkable after 14 months off.
Ruby,
Considering Faugheen has won over 2m4 and 3miles, i wouldnt say its impossible his best trip isn’t 2miles either…the simple facts are, to run in a championship race its 2miles or 3miles…
Arctic Fires ideal trip is 2m4 yet, they didnt bother heading to Aintree last year and has been campaigned mainly over 2miles?
The part your missing is, whilst you say they are better over different trips, they have ran to mid 160s over 2miles and therefore regardless of your personal opinion on their ideal trips…he is beating horses that have performed over 2miles at 160+.
There are plenty of horses you can nitpick over standard form in G1s…if you really want to.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Winning the County hurdle off 158 after a massive lay-off doesn’t shout out a horse that needed further to me.
Horses in the mid 160s… Which ones? He (Faugheen) only runs against 4 or 5 horses and 2 or 3 of them have starting prices of 50/1 or higher. When was the last time he beat a field of ten or more runners????
Answer: Four years ago.
Faugheen is a very good horse, but people calling him a machine never went saw proper races from the 80s or 90s.Ruby, i dont need to type out each horse…you can click on the RP and check them, they are clear to see.
What was the race 4yrs ago? Sort’ve missing your point
80s or 90s is discussion i wouldnt be privy too. i was born in 91 and have to admit i didnt study form when i was a toddler. But, aren’t a lot of group races small fields these days?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The only time he faced 10 or more runners in a G1 race was when he won the Neptune 4 years ago. Otherwise he only ran against 3,4 or 5 rivals. When Istabraq won the Sun Alliance and then three times the CH he faced something like 17, 17, 13 and 11 rivals.
Now he was the one to beat proper horses rated 160 and above. Horses like French Holly, Limestone Lad, Moscow Flyer, Pridwell, Theatreworld and so on. That horse really was a machine.
It’s not Faugheen’s fault that there isn’t much around over 2 miles in Ireland, but the hype surrounding the horse was just a bit too much.Could this be an explaination for some of those poor performances this season
https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/faugheen-has-surgery-to-remove-growth-the-size-of-a-mandarin-orange/329892Sad to see him today; in his prime possible the best ever, and probably the best 3-miler as well if he’d ben tried. And all that without being the most fluent hurdler, but whne he met a hurdle right and soared over it you wondered what kind of chaser he would have made. But injuries and age have taken their toll
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