- This topic has 223 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
Ruling Court is bound to drift with a massive stamina doubt on the expected ground. Will he even take part?
Although I’d personally have doubts about The Lion In Winter too. Sea The Stars progeny seem to like firmer going. Yet to race on a softish surface. I am not surprised with his and pointed toe top-of-the-ground firm surface action. Also has to settle far better than he did in the Dante if he’s to stay.
That said, they both imo have a better chance of staying the distance than Tornado Alert. He’s a half brother to some that stayed 1m4f, but they were by sires who stayed better than Too Darn Hot.
Lambourn is one that will love very soft ground and a test of stamina at 1m4f. But the thing that puts me off him is although usually a front / prominent runner (which is a plus)… He wasn’t exactly fast away in the Chester Vase. If he doesn’t get a good break tomorrow it could ruin his chance in the first couple of furlongs… And it’s Lordon again.
Value Is EverythingThis would be my 100% book if The Derby comes up “Soft”:
Delacroix 26.5% 11/4
Pride Of Arras 18.25% 9/2
DAMYSUS 7.7% 12/1
MIDAK 7.7% 12/1
Lambourn 7.2% 13/1
Ruling Court 7.2% 13/1
STANHOPE GARDENS 7.2% 13/1
The Lion In Winter 7.2% 13/1
NIGHTWALKER 5% 20/1
Tennessee Stud 2% 50/1
New Ground 1.5% 66/1
Lazy Griff 1.25% 80/1
Green Storm 0.3% 300/1
Tornado Alert 0.3% 300/1
Nightime Dancer 0.3% 300/1
Sea Scout 0.2% 500/1
Tuscan Hills 0.1% 1000/1
Al Wasl Storm 0.1% 1000/1
Rogue Impact 0.05% 2000/1Value Is EverythingTwo for me
Decent bet on the fav @3/1 which im not best pleased about as i fancied him the other week, really thought moore would do the AR/COT route and choose TLIW, but i didnt factor he’d pick delacroix, so im kicking myself as i didnt feel the need to go AP, a definite strong stayer, will be sitting towards to the front and expecting him
to be fairly impressive hereStanhope gardens e/w @20/1 also is a cracking bet imo, not sold on the breeding, but the line through with delacroix i really did like his attitude that day on only his 3rd start and ran a fine prep, think he’ll handle the ground fine and i think the trip will really suit him, ill be disappointed if he doesnt go close, another who should be sitting prominant.
This is a significantly better race than the oaks was, even the likes of sea scout at 250s could run a nice race, id have a few £ on him if i could get on the exchanges
according to BHA website going good , GS in places on both courses 2.2 mm overnight, now depends on what comes after mid day
Yep – it’s a sunny start in Surrey this morning, but there is a lot of rain forecast from late-morning onwards.
Mind you, the forecast was for steady rain yesterday, and that didn’t materialise.
would have thought now its going to be a last minute decision regarding Ruling Court
“thanks Gladiateur rather trust you…”
My freezer is full of people who made that mistake.
Was going to go for a walk on the Downs this morning, but my friend called to say that it’s already busy over there, so I probably won’t bother now. Besides, I like to end my walks in the Tottenham Corner pub and that is bookings-only today.
There is something a bit unsatisfactory about a public house not being entirely open to the public! I assume The Derby Arms opposite the course is the same?
I always used to go to the Barley Mow in the town for a pint of ESB, before walking up to the course with a detour via The Rising Sun.
I backed The Lion In Winter after the Acomb. I have to let the bet ride but I am not confident. The outside draw and the absence of Moore are not positives.
I have taken advantage of three bookmaker offers to get some free bets and put two of them on Delacroix. The best trainer/jockey combination in the race cannot be ignored.
I have used to remaining one to back the late Aga Khan’s horse. The fact he only made his debut in March is a concern but horses unraced at two have won before and he should appreciate the distance.
I may be tempted to add the Dante winner later. I reckon he would be favourite if he was trained by O’Brien or Godolphin or by Gosden.
CAS, the Derby Arms (and the Rubbing House) is bookings-only today, too. I stopped going there several years ago, when their real ale selection disappeared. At least the Tottenham Corner is now a Young’s pub, so the cask ale is decent.
I’m also tempted by Pride of Arras, and agree that he would be favourite if he were in the care of a higher-profile trainer. I’d also like to see him win for a (relatively) small owner-breeder, which would make a change from (yawn) Coolmore and Godolphin.
I haven’t backed the winner of the Derby since Golden Horn, so keep that in mind.
Anyway, I’m happy to take Delacroix on. Ruling Court looks good – he’ll get further than the mile – and Midak is way too big in the market for me.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.