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Delacroix was impressive yesterday.
Wouldn’t surprise me if he were to be the first string come the day.
5/1 worth taking.Value Is Everything“Wouldn’t surprise me if he were to be the first string come the day.”
The Lion In Winter
“5/1 worth taking.”
Risky. He’s by Dubawi. ;o)
Didn’t you say the same last year about Ezeliya in the Oaks:
One of the best performances at Epsom in recent years. And it was by a horse by Dubawi – Postponed:
Most Dubawi’s don’t stay a mile and a half.
Delacroix will be suited by the step up in trip.Value Is EverythingDelacroix was really impressive yesterday but showed so much speed that 1m2f looks his optimal trip.
Will he get up the hill at Epsom?
The Lion In Winter will win if he’s trained on imo.
Other than him, I’m pretty happy to be on Lambourn
Twain doesn’t appear to be entered for any prep races so I’m not sure he’ll be at Epsom.
When Dubawi’s progeny have won the other two Group 1’s at Epsom, Mike…
What logic is there to say I should not back Delacroix just because they haven’t won the Derby yet?I take everything into consideration.
It is possible on breeding Delacroix won’t stay (by a miler out of a miler). Delacroix’s half sister Grateful is a Group 1 winner at a mile and three quarters – albeit by Galileo. But when assessing a horse’s stamina requirements -as well as sire and dam – the horse’s temperament can be just as important. The way Delacroix runs imo suggests he’ll probably be even better at a mile and a half.
On his toes in the prelims yesterday and unseated Lordon going to post, but looks a relaxed sort once racing.
Yet to race on Good-Firm ground, but his action (although not a pointy toe top-of-the-ground action) is pretty fluent and not markedly round like Ancient Wisdom. Three of the race times at Leopardstown yesterday were under a second slower than Racing Post Standard, which strongly suggests the ground was on the Firm side of Good without it being quite Good-Firm.
Impeccably bred, has the breeding to make a top class racehorse. Top class sire Dubawi and dam won the Breeders Cup Mile and Queen Anne. So the likelihood of further improvement is quite high.
There is even a slight doubt about whether Delacroix will run at Epsom. If it’s very firm and / or if The Lion In Winter is impressive in the Dante it’s possible they could re-route to the French Derby. But equally, most of AOB’s three year olds have been needing a run, so TLIW might get beat at York or run so poorly won’t even run in the Derby.Not saying Delacroix will win. Just that @ 5/1 surely has a better than 16.7% chance of winning.
Value Is EverythingI wouldn’t let the sire put me off. It took Sadler’s Wells ages to sire a Derby winner.
“What logic is there to say I should not back Delacroix just because they haven’t won the Derby yet?”
Back another as well just in case it’s another year of waiting.
Dunno what has become of Shackleton but too late for a trial now. Cashed him out at a small loss and put the stake on Alpine Trail instead.
Pleased enough with The Lion In Winter today.
He was staying on well hands and heels after pretty much everything going wrong beforehand.
I’ve added him at 13/2.
13/2?
I’d love to know where you got that; I couldn’t find better than 6s anywhere.
I cannot fathom how Delacroix is now favourite for the Derby now. Do the bookies really think he’s going to be Ballydoyle’s number one, just because The Lion In Winter got beaten today?
Already on The Lion In Winter as mentioned earlier in the thread. However, I didn’t like his demeanour before the race today. Maybe it was just freshness after such a long absence but it has to raise the question of if he will handle the preliminaries and the general hullabaloo of Derby Day. And will Moore be riding him?
I am happy to let the bet ride but more in hope than confidence. Then again, I felt the same about my bet on City Of Troy last year and that turned out well, so perhaps lightning will strike twice.
Was his first run since August. He was hands and heels once the outside horse caused the jockey to snatch up and the margin of defeat was 4 lengths. The Derby will likely be well run and that will help him settle. Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy turned round heavier defeats to win at Epsom. I didn’t back him today because it was a just the starter before the main course next time.
It’ll be “well run”, but also will be over almost another 2f. So being well run does not fully make up for being too free. Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy’s heavier defeats were:
a) In early May – with a much longer time gap to improve their form before The Derby.
b) Were in the 2000 Guineas over a mile and both settled well at Newmarket.Value Is EverythingGinger are you saying you won’t be backing him for the Derby, not even as one of your ‘savers’?
Negativity right now from you but will you come round by race time?Depends on the odds Mike.
I certainly wouldn’t be taking 6/1 ante-post.
Ante-post odds always take into account the likelihood of running and there’s got to be a fair chance he won’t run… And his chance is not that great given what happened today either. ie I’m very negative at the current 6/1.On the day of race if he’s at the post… and is not sweating… and Delacroix, Pride of Arras, Damysus and Rule Of Court are all absent… If all of those things happened I’d probably be on TLIW myself at a lot less than 6/1.
On the day of race everything depends on who runs and what price the horse is. Taking into account the positives and negatives of ALL horses – do the odds of any horse make it worth backing.
Value Is Everything
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