- This topic has 223 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
It is gonna chuck it down on Saturday. So one of my picks Ruling Court I don’t see winning. And my other pick The Lion In Winter is drawn 19 in 19 which looks bad but I think he may get more room than usual to come through horses in the later stages, if good enough, as I can see the field possibly get strung out on the ground. I’ll wait and see if I want to add another now that I’ve gone off Ruling Court.
Good question Teetonmill. From what I saw last year Coolmore have seemed to change their way of doing things. Used to be every horse / jockey for themselves. Nowadays it seems they look at the race and if thinking their first string has a far better chance of winning than the second and third strings… Then the others are sacrificed in order to produce a race run to suit the first string.
The booking of Keane suggests Coolmore don’t want The Lion sacrificed. However, I am not surprised and can understand them wanting a top jockey on such a tricky ride. Sweated up quite badly before the Dante and (had been a front runner in the Acomb) pulled too hard under restraint. So they need someone who is consistent at keeping horses settled in the prelims and can anchor them in running. The Derby is perhaps Coolmore’s most important race, so they don’t want to take any chances.
However, Lordon may well have been paid off. Being able to ride what The Lads may well believe is their first string in the Oaks. Whirl has better form than Minnie Hauk and is a much more straightforward type than The Lion In Winter. Likely to settle well both in the prelims and in the race itself.
Value Is Everything“However, Lordon may well have been paid off. Being able to ride what The Lads may well believe is their first string in the Oaks.
Ryan Moore gets first pick. He picks what they believe is first string. They get it mostly right but not always.
More rain this morning. I read on the Racing Post website that the going is now officially good to soft, good in places; I would not be at all surprised if it were to be soft all over by tomorrow, if not later today.
Win selection is The Lion In Winter 8/1. First reaction after York was that it wasn’t promnising, but given all the negatives to only be beaten about 4 lengths was a fair performance. Big field here will help get cover and I don’t see the outside draw being a problem given the first curve is right handed.
Each way selection is a bit of a long odds pot with Tuscan Hills 66/1 e/w 1/5 4 places. Needed the race and beaten about the same distance as the main selection in the Dante was at least encouraging. Showed promise last year and doesn’t stretch probability to get in the mix.
Ruling Court may be withdrawn if any more rain tomorrow. Just announced on ITV Racing by Ed Chamberlain but not confirmed by the Appleby team yet.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I wonder if any of the leading players can overcome their high draws (seemingly) disadvantage?
Only one horse managed to win today from a high(ish) draw; Ecureuil Secret.
And hardly any winners today, came to win, from off the pace.
Rain forecast tonite and tom, as well, so another factor to consider for tomorrow.
I seriously hope they don’t use Lambourn as a sacrificial lamb like they did with Whirl today.
I think he has a huge chance with the ground not being overly quick.
I refer you to my post on Derbys with 16 or more runners, Wilts. Mid to high is very acceptable, and Tennessee Stud is a shoo-in! ( Unless Lazy Griff beats him!)
“I wonder if any of the leading players can overcome their high draws (seemingly) disadvantage?”
If there’s lots of rain then them coming stands side can’t be ruled out to add to the puzzle.
The stats don’t lie, Mike. Big field Derbys often lead to low draws being disadvantaged.
Plus the fact of potential carnage and subsequent bad luck stories encourage my tendency to go for bigger priced outliers.Will we get a stand-side Derby?
I seem to remember Teenoso’s Derby was in very soft – possibly heavy – ground. But they stayed far side in that.Have we had a very soft ground Derby since 1983?
I know Oh So Sharp came stand side in the Oaks of 1985 but Slip Anchor kept to the inner in the Derby.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.