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Hillarious, just get shot of John Magnier & co and bring in Kevin Blake to run things.
Bolshoi Ballet’s form looks solid, but way too short for me in a race where horses haven’t yet fully developed.
The one that interests me is Youth Spirit who took a big step forward when stepping up in trip at Chester last time. Currently 33/1 and time of that Chester race puts him right in the mix.
I can’t have a Camelot winning an Epsom Derby on Good/Good to firm but best of luck robnorth. I suspect AOB’s colts aren’t up to scratch this year and am happy to oppose BB (I appreciate I may be eating these words on Saturday afternoon!). Still haven’t decided though. Will leave it till draw & jockeys are announced.
Well below the belt a couple of these big name bookies pushing out the prices with these AOB horses that are now doubtful runners. 365 offering 10/1 High Definition on the website, but you can guarantee any ante post bets at bigger prices the cash out offers were gone within seconds of news being made public.
Sad about NOON STAR but vert happy with BOLSHOIL BALLETT put him up at 33/1 and as long avoid a bad draw one to beat
UPDATED
I like something that has won LTO, over at least 10f. This means High Definition, Mac Swiney, One Ruler, Van Gogh, Adayar, Southern Lights, Gear Up, Kyprios, Mojo Star & Seattle Sound are excluded.
A dangerous strategy which has failed before on various occasions, but I narrow things down further by omitting anything which is not a 1st string. So The Meditteranian and Sir Lamorak are excluded, hopefully this is not too risky as The Meditteranian perhaps doesn’t go, and Sir Lamoraks latest run was much longer ago than traditionally ideal.
11/12 of previous winners have been rated 108 or higher, so John Leeper is reluctantly omitted. I would have potentially seen past this 1lb below required rating if Hollie Doyle was up, but I’m happier leaving him out with Kirby up as I’m not a fan.
I’m down to a shortlist of Bolshoi Ballet, Hurricane Lane, Mohaafeth, Third Realm, Youth Spirit & Lone Eagle.
EDIT – Lone Eagle is a NR. Hurricane Lane, Mohaafeth, Third Realm are drawn below 7, so are omitted.
I can’t be backing a shorty like Bolshoi Ballet, but I would have liked to see him drawn low to rule him out for a better reason than he is too short. But thats what he is, for a working man like myself.
I remain with my tentative selection made on Pg 13, with Youth Spirit looking cracking value.
Youth Spirit – 2 pts e/w 40/1 (1/5 first 3, B/O, B365)
Youth Spirit / Bolshoi Ballet 1pt RFC.GL all.
BUY THE SUN
It’s a good question. Looks like there’s a few that have liked to race prominently but whether they will want to lead is another matter. Hopefully they don’t all leave it up to Ryan Moore to dictate the pace he wants.
If Van Gogh does not run in the Derby it surely can’t be a surprise given his best performances have been on very soft ground and hasn’t had long to recover from the Irish Guineas (races on heavy going often take longer to recover from).
Value Is EverythingSincerely hope not. The race could do with an exciting finish, whoever wins, after last years fiasco.
BUY THE SUN
I don’t agree with those who’ve written John Leeper off.
On both looks and breeding, some of these have already fulfilled their (probable) potential. John Leeper is – to my eyes – such a good looking individual, with brilliant breeding – by Frankel out of Snow Fairy – with (what looks to me) a flowing stride in his faster paces… that I am very confident he’s going to make into a Group 1 animal at some point (if stepping up in trip doesn’t ruin his temperament for good).
Going up to 12 furlongs got to be more than a bit worried about the way he’s previously pulled hard at only 10f… Pulling hard obviously takes a lot of energy / ability out of a racehorse, most subsequently don’t have enough at the business end… So although didn’t win in effortless style and the form isn’t yet what you’d expect of a Derby winner… To win at all last time may be significant. ie This horse is much better than the form shown so far! Rivals may try to set a slowish pace through the first couple of furlongs. However, this is only a thrice raced horse who’s still learning. If (and I do realise it’s a big IF) settling, will likely have a big chance.
Value Is Everything
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